Half a year after an inauguration, it may seem odd to be thinking about the next presidential election, but then, everything about Donald Trump’s occupancy of the White House has been odd. While the media seems insistent on finding Trump holdouts who would not leave his cause if he ate their baby on live TV, the truth poll numbers have been on a steady decline. Barack Obama was considered vulnerable in 2012 when his Gallup approval rating averaged 48 percent. And in fact, Obama lost all states where his approval rating was below 46 percent at the time of the election.
But Donald Trump’s score with Gallup is currently an anemic 34 percent. That’s even lower than the 38 percent Trump held at the end of July—a value that was already below that of any other president since Gallup started keeping track. The last time Gallup ran state level ratings, Trump held a rating higher than 46 percent in only 21 states—which didn’t include Pennsylvania (43), Michigan (43), or Wisconsin (42). It didn’t even include Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, or Texas.
Trump’s decline has generated speculation that he might discover that by 2020 America had been made fully great, leaving the stage to someone else. Or Republicans might decide that they’d had enough, and tackle Trump in the primaries. In any case, Democrats are starting to look at Republican potentials not named Donald.
The effort, which began in late spring, covers Vice President Mike Pence, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse, among others. …
For an opposition party to be scrutinizing potential intraparty reelection rivals to an incumbent president just seven months into his term is highly unusual.
Pence moved quickly in July to quash stories that sprang up after he started his own PAC. But … he started his own PAC.
Operatives on both sides of the aisle preparing for 2020 have also started speculating about the intentions of Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Marco Rubio of Florida, as well as former Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
How might Republicans bounce should Trump exist stage far-right in 2020? It seems unlikely that anyone would turn to Pence—unless Pence gets a chance to carry the ball sometime before 2020. It’s easy to see why candidates like Kasich and Romney might feel that Republicans, burned by their experiment with Trump, might come running home to a more moderate solution.
On the other hand, Republicans won with Trump, and that win has already allowed them to secure at least one Supreme Court seat, wreck the EPA, and put them on a track to Kansas-style tax reform. Even if Trump goes off to eat taco bowls and grab … golf clubs, in peace. That doesn’t mean Republicans will consider “sane” as a qualifier in their next presidential candidate.