The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● WV-Sen: On Wednesday, MetroNews' Brad McElhinny reported that West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice told a group of lawmakers that he was supporting Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's bid for re-election. Before early August, that probably wouldn't have been very exciting news. Justice is close to Manchin and last year, the senator endorsed Justice in the three-way Democratic primary; Justice also hired several of Manchin's advisers for his campaign. But just last month, Justice attended a rally with Donald Trump and announced he was joining the GOP.
Campaign Action
Manchin is running for re-election in a state that backed Trump 68-26, and he's going to need to win over a lot of voters who like Trump. Justice argued that, by re-electing Manchin, West Virginians would actually be helping Trump. McElhinny quotes the governor telling the room, "Now he may be a terrible person to y'all but Joe has been a friend of mine and I'm going to tell you this as straight up as I can be: Joe Manchin is becoming a very key, integral part with Donald Trump. And I'm going to take my read off of Donald Trump." Justice continued, "Joe Manchin is — and I know this — Joe Manchin is Donald Trump's liaison with the Democrats. And you want, and I want, what Donald Trump is trying to get done."
It's unclear how much help Justice will be for Manchin. Justice, a coal billionaire, did very well as the Democratic nominee in coal country, an area that has abandoned Democratic presidential candidates but still is open to voting blue down-ballot. These are the type of voters Manchin is going to be seeking next year, and if Justice is still well-regarded in the region, his cross-party seal of endorsement could be a big help.
However, that's a big if. While a recent poll from Repass and Research America Inc. gave Manchin a 51-34 approval rating, that same sample found the newly Republican governor with a weak 34-44 score. West Virginia doesn't get polled often, so we don't have other numbers to compare it to. But it's possible there just aren't many voters Justice could appeal to who already don't like Manchin.
And as we've seen in the past year, Justice is an eccentric guy. If he really believes he's backing Manchin to help Trump, he may change course if Trump tells him to. Indeed, an unnamed person who was at the meeting tells Buzzfeed's Henry Gomez that Justice indicated he'd follow Trump's lead. Still, Republicans will be working hard to caricature Manchin as a typical Democrat who has lost his way in D.C., and the senator will be happy to echo Justice and define himself as a bipartisan figure.
Senate
● AL-Sen: The Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and has spent heavily on behalf of Sen. Luther Strange, just dropped another $630,000 for TV and radio ads to support Strange ahead of next week's Senate special election GOP primary runoff. Their new TV spot repeatedly praises "Big Luther" Strange for standing up for "our conservative values." They emphasize how Strange has the endorsement of the NRA, National Right to Life, and Donald Trump himself, while calling Strange "pro-life, pro-gun, pro-wall, and pro-Trump."
Meanwhile, challenger Roy Moore earned some negative headlines after it came to light that he listed hard-right conservative icon Phyllis Schlafly as one of his endorsers. Of course, Schlafly died just over 12 months ago—well before Trump's election victory and his appointment of Jeff Sessions as attorney general forced the need for a Senate special election in Alabama. Moore's campaign later removed references to the endorsement from his website.
● IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Susan Brooks has weighed in on Indiana's GOP Senate primary, giving her endorsement to fellow Rep. Luke Messer on Wednesday. Brooks represents the 5th District north of Indianapolis, and her seat is situated directly between Messer's 6th District to the east and primary rival Rep. Todd Rokita's 4th District to the west. In addition to Rokita, Messer faces state Rep. Mike Braun and a few lesser-known Republicans in the primary for the nomination to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly next year.
● VA-Sen: Princeton Survey Research Associates International, polling on behalf of the University of Mary Washington, takes a look at next year's Senate race, and they give Democratic incumbent Tim Kaine a clear lead against all GOP comers. Kaine beats Corey Stewart, the Confederate-worshiping head of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors and the only announced candidate, 54-39 with likely voters. Kaine leads Rep. Dave Brat, who famously beat then-Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the 2014 primary, 54-41, and outpaces Rep. Scott Taylor 53-41. While national Republicans are targeting plenty of Democratic senators across the country, they've largely ignored this race so far.
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: The GOP field may be getting another comer before too long. David Stemerman, the founder of the hedge fund Conatus Capital Management, said this week that he was closing his firm in December and he "expect[s] to form a candidate committee that will prepare to launch a campaign in 2018." Conatus currently manages $1.6 billion, so Stemerman may have some connections that could help him raise money. A number of other Republicans have entered the race or formed exploratory committees, and there's no clear frontrunner.
● IA-Gov: Labor leader Cathy Glasson has upgraded her campaign from the exploratory phase to official after she recently threw her hat into the ring for the Democratic gubernatorial primary. As a career nurse whose union covers health-care workers, Glasson leads SEIU Local 199 in the Iowa City area. Although she hasn't run for office before and starts off with little recognition, organized labor is a particularly important constituency in Democratic primaries in Iowa. Her union ties and the high salience of health care debates as congressional Republicans seek to gut Obamacare could help her stand out in a crowded field.
Glasson joins a Democratic primary that already includes several big names: state party chair Andy McGuire; John Norris, who was once chief of staff to former Gov. Tom Vilsack; state Sen. Nate Boulton; former Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn; wealthy and well-connected businessman Fred Hubbell; and former Des Moines School Board President Jonathan Neiderbach. Such a large field without an obvious front-runner increases the odds that no candidate wins more than 35 percent of the vote in the primary, which would result in a state party convention picking the nominee instead.
● NJ-Gov: The Hill reports that former President Obama will head to New Jersey in the coming weeks to campaign with Democratic nominee Phil Murphy ahead of this November's gubernatorial election against Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno. Murphy served as U.S. ambassador to Germany from 2009 to 2013 under Obama, making it no surprise that the former president is lending his star power to support Murphy's campaign.
● VA-Gov: Democrat Ralph Northam's latest ad skewers Republican Ed Gillespie for his past as a lobbyist, calling him "Enron Ed" in reference to the early 2000s Enron corporate fraud scandal. Northam blasts him and his firm for taking $700,000 to lobby on behalf of the fraudulent company back in 2001, and excoriates him for representing "the worst of the worst." His list of offensive clients includes "lenders trying to keep student loan rates high" and "corporations sending jobs overseas." Northam pivots to attacking Gillespie for now "lobbying" on behalf of Donald Trump's agenda, like taking away people's health care.
This isn't the first time Gillespie has been tarred with the "Enron Ed" label—in fact, Democratic Sen. Mark Warner lobbed this same attack against him during the 2014 Senate election, which Gillespie narrowly lost. However, it's been 16 years since the height of the Enron scandal caught the nation's eye. While the average voter is far older than the average American, such an attack may not be as potent so many years after the scandal has faded from the public and media landscape. Nevertheless, if there's one group that voters from both parties loathe, it's lobbyists.
For his part, Gillespie recently rolled out the endorsement of former longtime GOP Sen. John Warner, who retired from the Senate in 2008 and was replaced by the aforementioned Democrat Mark Warner (no relation). With a reputation as a moderate, John Warner endorsed his Democratic successor's re-election bid over Gillespie in 2014, and he also backed Hillary Clinton last year. The 90-year-old former senator's return to supporting the Republican nominee in 2017 is thus an attention-grabbing move.
House
● NC-02: Republican Rep. George Holding has drawn another notable Democratic opponent after tech executive Ken Romley entered the race on Tuesday, making his first bid for public office. Romley stepped down last month as CEO of marketing software firm Zift Solutions in order to run, and The News and Observer reports that Romley has had a successful career of founding and later selling previous business, meaning he could be wealthy enough to self-fund, although there's no word on that prospect itself.
Romley will face a Democratic primary field that has recently become a truly contested race after former state Rep. Linda Coleman, who was the 2016 and 2012 Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial nominee, launched her own campaign on Monday. They'll also face distillery owner Sam Searcy, who has been running since July, in the primary.
Holding is very wealthy and won't be lacking for campaign funds, meaning he won't be easy to dislodge in this exurban Raleigh-area district, which backed Trump by 53-44. However, a favorable national environment for Democrats could make things interesting here next year.
● NY-27: Democrat Erin Cole, who is an Army veteran and former State Department official, launched a campaign against Republican Rep. Chris Collins back in July, but Cole dropped out on Monday, with The Buffalo News reporting that she was "frustrated with fundraising and other challenges that often trouble first-time political candidates." Cole's departure leaves Democrats without any notable challengers against Collins.
Wedged between Buffalo and Rochester, this relatively rural and exurban seat supported Trump by a punishing 60-35, making it far from a top-tier Democratic target to begin with. However, current Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul did almost win re-election to the House here over Collins back in 2012, and Collins has earned major negative headlines in recent months, which had left some Democrats with hope of pulling off an upset in this tough district.
Mayoral
● Manchester, NH Mayor: On Tuesday, New Hampshire's largest city held its non-partisan primary, and unsurprisingly, GOP Mayor Ted Gatsas and Democrat Joyce Craig advanced to the Nov. 7 general. But in what was a surprise, Craig outpaced Gatsas 53-46, the first time Gatsas has finished second in the primary in any of his five mayoral races. This doesn't mean Gatsas is doomed: Two years ago, Gatsas led Craig 43-37, while another Democrat grabbed 15; in November, Gatsas beat Craig by 85 votes. Still, it's not a good sign for the incumbent at all.
Democrats haven't controlled the mayor's office since incumbent Robert Barnes lost re-election to future GOP Rep. Frank Guinta in 2005. However, Gatsas came close to losing two years ago, and he only won 53-47 in 2013. Gatsas had spent years flirting with a run for higher office, and last year, he finally decided to run for governor. Gatsas ended up taking third place with 21 percent of the vote in the primary, well behind eventual winner Chris Sununu's 31 percent.
If Craig wins, expect to hear her mentioned as a future candidate for NH-01 or for statewide office. Moreover, potential Democratic presidential candidates will likely show up in Manchester over the next two months to try and make inroads with New Hampshire Democrats: Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti recently stumped for Craig.