People who buy health insurance on their own are going to be really screwed by the Senate Republicans tax cut plan, if it includes a repeal of the individual mandate, according to new analysis from the Commonwealth Fund. Any tax cut the 7 million people who buy their own insurance and don't qualify for premium subsidies might get will be offset by higher premium prices, which will also be permanent, while their tax cuts will eventually expire.
We estimated the dollar amount of the annual premium increase of 10 percent associated with the mandate repeal alone, relative to estimated premium increases under current law. CBO recently projected premiums would grow by about 5 percent per year under current law over 2019–27 (see Methodology). Looking at the average increase in dollars for each age group for the lowest-cost ACA marketplace silver or gold plan, whichever is lower in each rating area in 2018, (Exhibit 1), we find:
- 27-year-olds would see an increase of $492 in 2019, rising to $726 by 2027;
- 40-year-olds would see an increase of $598 in 2019, rising to $883 in 2027;
- 60-year-olds would see an increase of $1,269 in 2019, rising to $1,875 in 2027.
The individual mandate repeal was added so that corporate tax cuts could be made permanent. So while corporations would forever enjoy that break, 7 million middle class Americans would get a temporary cut that is completely offset by how much more they’re having to pay in insurance premiums. Provided the Obamacare markets survive this sabotage and they can still get insurance at all.
Which means that this bill would leave millions of middle Americans worse off.
Jam your senators' phone lines at (202) 224-3121. Tell them to vote "no" on the Republican tax bill.