The government reported Friday that the economy generated 200,000 new jobs in January, seasonally adjusted. Of the total, 196,000 were in the private sector. The “headline” rate of unemployment remained unchanged at 4.1 percent, where it has stood for four consecutive months. A gauge that many economists believe offers a better overall picture because it covers unemployment, underemployment and some discouraged workers hit 8.2 percent, the second month in a row that this measure has risen 0.1 point.
A consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the report’s release was for 175,000 new jobs.
In each month’s report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revises job estimates for the previous two months to account for the more complete data available than when those reports were originally released. The bureau revised December’s numbers from 148,000 to 160,000, and November’s numbers from 252,000 to 216,000.
Average wages for all workers rose by 9 cents an hour for the second month in a row. 0.3 percent. In the past 12 months, wages have risen 75 cents an hour, 2.9 percent against an inflation rate of 1.7 percent. That is the best showing since 2009. Ben Casselman at The New York Times reported:
Lagging pay has been a persistent economic mystery. But many economists expect wage growth to accelerate in 2018, especially if the unemployment rate continues to fall, forcing companies to compete to attract scarce workers.
Economists warned about reading too much into January’s strong wage numbers — several times during the recovery, wage growth has appeared to accelerate, only to fall back to earth. But they said there was little doubt that the latest numbers were an encouraging sign.
“People have been wondering when the wages are going to start to rise in response to this tightness,” said Catherine Barrera, chief economist of the online job site ZipRecruiter. “I think that over the first six months of this year, we’re really going to start to see the wages rise.”
It’s worth noting, however, that the hours of the average work week fell. Thus:
Previous wages of $26.65 an hour at average of 34.5 hours a week equals $919.43.
Wages now at $26.74 an hour at average of 34.3 hours a week equals $917.18.
The survey period for each BLS jobs report finishes around the 12th of each month, so the January report covers the last half of December and the first half of January, not January alone. Full-time and part-time positions are included in the bureau’s tally. A person who has worked a single hour a week during the survey period is counted as employed.
Economists differ significantly over how much impact presidents actually have on job creation. But President Trump, never shy about taking credit for anything he’s brushed his elbow against, has been boasting about his job-creation prowess for months, all the while being careful not to point out that under Obama’s watch during his last year in office in 2016, the economy grew by 2.24 million jobs. In 2017, under Trump, it grew by 2.04 million jobs. Here’s a table showing the totals from 2007-Present.
year |
total jobs |
monthly average |
2007 |
1.16 million |
96,670 |
2008 |
minus 3.57 million |
minus 297,500 |
2009 |
minus 5.07 million |
minus 422,500 |
2010 |
1.06 million |
88,330 |
2011 |
2.05 million |
170,830 |
2012 |
2.14 million |
178,330 |
2013 |
2.30 million |
191,670 |
2014 |
3.00 million |
250,000 |
2015 |
2.71 million |
225,830 |
2016 |
2.24 million |
186,670 |
2017 |
2.04 million |
170,000 |
2018 |
Jan-Feb: 360,000 |
180,000 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics—MB
Unemployment rates differ by race and sex. Pr*sident Trump has vigorously touted the drop in black unemployment to 6.8 percent, the lowest ever recorded. But in January, that figure soared to 7.7 percent, just 0.1 below what it was when President Obama left office. [Percentages in brackets are for December]. For U3: Adult men: 3.9 percent [3.8]; Adult women: 3.6 percent [3.7]; Whites: 3.5 percent [3.7] ; Blacks: 7.7 percent [6.8]; Asians: 3.0 percent [2.5]; Hispanics: 5 percent [4.9]; American Indians: (not counted monthly).
Between September 2007 and December 2009, the U.S. economy shed 8.8 million jobs. Since the Great Recession officially ended in June 2009, the economy has registered a net gain of 16.1 million new jobs.The bureau calculates its estimates each month by analyzing the Current Employment Survey of 147,000 business establishments. The unemployment rate is calculated from the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. Formulas are applied to each month’s count—seasonal adjustments—to smooth out the peaks and troughs in job creation cycle as the year progresses.
U3 is the BLS label for its headline rate of unemployment. It’s at 4.1 percent, its lowest level in 17 years. The lowest the rate reached in the past 25 years was 3.8 percent in April 2000. Before that, the lowest rate was had been December 1969, when it was 3.5 percent.
In addition, the bureau calculates unemployment for groups other than those simply looking for a job. U6. is an inclusive measure of “labor underutilitization” and covers both unemployment and underemployment. In January, U6 rose 0.1 point to 8.2 percent. Its pre-Great Recession low was 8 percent in March 2007. In mid-2001, it reached 6.9 percent. The U6 count covers a number of categories, one of those being part-time workers who want full-time positions but cannot get them.
The civilian workforce rose by 518,000 in January, after rising by 64,000 in December. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio also remained unchanged at 60.1 percent.
Additional details from the report:
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose 3 cents an hour to $22.34 in January, after rising 7 cents an hour in December.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls fell in January 0.2 to 34.3 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 9 cents an hour in January to $26.74.
• The manufacturing work week in January fell 0.2 to 40.6 hours.
November Job Gains and Losses for selected categories:
- Professional services: 23,000
- Temporary help services: 1,800
- Transportation & warehousing: 11,100
- Financial activities: 9,000
- Leisure & hospitality: 35,000
- Information: -6,000
- Education and health services: 38,000
- Health care & social assistance: 25,800
- Retail trade: 15,400
- Construction: 36,000
- Manufacturing: 15,000
- Mining and Logging: 6,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous decade compared with this January’s gain of 000,000 jobs.
January 2008: 17,000
January 2009: -793,000
January 2010: 23,000
January 2011: 43,000
January 2012: 358,000
January 2013: 211,000
January 2014: 190,000
January 2015: 234,000
January 2016: 126,000
January 2017: 216,000