At some point last year, it started to become clear that Congressional Republicans had strapped themselves to Donald Trump and would hang on for dear life regardless of anything he did—no matter how repugnant, unconscionable, treacherous, or even felonious. It was almost sure to be a suicide pact, but they couldn't bring themselves to quit Trump because he had cultivated such a fervent following among 30-some percent of the electorate—basically, the GOP bitter enders.
Along the way, Republican lawmakers stood by and did nothing as Trump enriched himself and his family through the presidency, called Nazi marchers who murdered an innocent woman in Charlottesville "very fine people," attacked the rule of law and initiated a purge of anyone investigating him, made war on the grieving widow of a fallen American soldier, stoked naked racism against NFL players for exercising their free speech rights, forcibly separated crying babies from their asylum-seeking parents at the border while jailing some 13,000 kids who remain in U.S. custody, glorified dictators, held a secret meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and then publicly shamed U.S. intelligence by siding with Putin’s denial of Russian interference in the 2016 elections, and lied lied lied and lied again about everything and anything under the sun.
Trump has defiled the office of the president repeatedly and routinely and has arguably violated his oath of office on numerous occasions—all with total impunity thanks to Republican lawmakers who have buried their heads in the sand in hopes of riding the base's rabid pro-Trump fever to another electoral victory. No price was too high to pay to win another election—neither plummeting U.S. standing on the global stage nor the degradation of our democracy gave Republicans pause. They were willing to give away absolutely anything in exchange for their precious seats.
Well, the chickens are coming home to roost, as they say. We are watching a vise grip squeeze on the Republican party in real time, as independents turn against it on one side while some previously GOP-aligned voters flee the party on the other side. That will likely leave only the frothiest pro-Trumpers to vote for Republican candidates this fall. As Pew Research wrote earlier this year after finding that 50% of registered voters identify as Democrats/lean Democratic while only 42% identify as Republicans/lean Republican:
The 8-percentage-point Democratic advantage in leaned partisan identification is wider than at any point since 2009, and a statistically significant shift since 2016, when Democrats had a 4-point edge (48% to 44%).
At the same time, independents seem to be rapidly solidifying against Trump and by extension, Republicans, after taking a softer view at the outset of the year following the GOP tax cut. Whatever judgment independent voters were reserving earlier this year, they now appear to be rendering harsher conclusions in poll after poll.
In a CNN poll this week, Trump's approval rating among independents plummeted 16 points to 31 percent, down from 47 percent last month. Surely, that dramatic dip is an outlier but the basic trend is consistent. Two other polls this week from Washington Post-ABC News and Quinnipiac put independent support for Trump at 35 percent and 36 percent respectively.That's largely the reason Trump's approval ratings of late have been dragging to the point where he's finally fallen below 40 percent in 538's aggregate.
Remember, part of the reason Trump managed to win office is because independents broke toward him in the final days of the 2016 election. If we are to believe the exit polls, independent voters favored him over Hillary Clinton by 4 points, 46-42 percent. But now sagging support among independents has attached to GOP lawmakers, who have done almost nothing at all to separate themselves from him. That's at least part of why the generic ballot is trending upward for Democrats right now as Republican numbers flatline.
"Republicans have not only been fairly silent in opposition to the president, but they've been driving very hard in the Senate when it comes to his Supreme Court nominee," explained Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "Congressional Republicans are buying into Trump for November. In terms of brand, they look totally in lockstep with the president — and that has become extremely clear to voters."
As Trump polarizes the electorate at historic rates, the priorities of independent voters are simultaneously coming in closer alignment to those of Democrats. As I noted earlier this week, the two demographics are almost in lockstep on health care and corruption being their top two priorities this fall. They also tend to be closer in their views of issues like the Russia probe. A Quinnipiac poll this week found that Americans think Robert Mueller is conducting the investigation fairly, 55-32 percent. Strong majorities of independents (55 percent) and Democrats (77 percent) agree with that while only 30 percent of Republicans say the same.
In a CNN poll, support for Trump’s impeachment rose to 47 percent, up from 42 percent in June.
That increase comes almost entirely among independents -- 48% now say the President ought to be impeached, up from 38% in June -- who have also soured on Trump's job performance generally.
Still, Republican support for impeachment sits at just 8 percent.
More and more, the Republican party is adrift on the important issues of the day. Congressional Republicans' staunch fealty to Trump—who is frankly supremely offensive, corrupt, and incompetent—has whittled the party into a fine point, small and intensely focused but disastrously ill-equipped to win elections on a large scale.
"People like to say, 'Oh, everyone’s so divided right now,' but I don’t think that’s the case," said Richard Czuba of the Lansing, MI-based Glengariff Group. "Democrats and independents are viewing these issues similarly, and it’s in fact the Republican base that’s viewing issues differently than everyone else."
Neither major party in this country can win elections without a coalition of voters, Republicans seem to have forgotten that. And as small as Trump's coalition was when he eked out an unlikely victory in 2016, it's practically nonexistent as we head into the final weeks of the midterms.
So on Nov. 6, get out there and vote like you mean it!