The votes are almost in, even if the stories aren’t.
We’ll gain something like 35 House seats and 7 Governors; we will lose 3 Senate seats (but probably not Montana, despite MT Trump rallies and a target on Jon Tester’s back for offering oversight to the VA).
Among the painful losses, Florida stands out along with our Senate candidates and GA governor. Beto is a special case (Texas Democrats were aiming for historic wins in 2018. What they got instead was hope for 2020), a loss that feels like a win in Texas, with Democrats winning down ballot in ways not seen in years (TX House: Pete Sessions and John Culberson lost, thanks to Beto).
Georgia is a mess. We lost the governorship but we got clean up to do in that state with massive voting screwups. And Stacey Abrams might well have allowed us to defeat Karen Handel and win GA-6 (by 2145 votes, and that margin was similar in a lot of places).
Elsewhere, Kris Kobach and Scott Walker lost, Dana Rohrabacher (CA-48) and Dave Brat (VA -07) lost, Jon Tester looks to hang on, the Midwest is looking bluer. We won unexpected seats on Staten Island and in South Carolina (Mark Sanford’s old district) and Oklahoma. And the fact that Elijah Cummings and Adam Schiff and Richard Neal are in a position to act as a check on Trump makes an enormous difference. It started last night with Ways and Means announcing plans to request Trump tax returns. Subpoena power. Oversight. Game on.
It’s worth noting the polls and forecasters were right about most of this, including the popular vote (i.e. generic ballot) but most of all, winning back the House.
Did we want more? Sure! But we are divided country and both sides turned out. Still, this was a major win in the House, and a step back to relevancy for Democrats, who have a voice again and can not be ignored, amidst Senate disappointment.
Have I mentioned Robert Mueller III is still to come?
Oh, and the Governor wins are enormously important for Medicaid expansion and redistricting.
Was it a wave? Was it a rebuke?
Stories are yet to be written, many races at the time of this writing are not yet done. More to come! But in a lot of ways, it was. Check out the opinions:
Speaking of predictions:
Some of those surprises:
Texas:
Virginia:
CD Hooks/Splinter:
Is This Ted Cruz's Last Hurrah?
If Beto O’Rourke’s strange and strangely successful campaign this year has changed anything, it’s in part to do with the country’s perception of Texas, and the state’s perception of itself. It was hard to argue with Cruz’s categorization of what the state was during the last eight years, because it was evidently politically correct. In an environment in which no general election is seriously contested and the path to power lies in winning a majority of Republican primary voters, this brand of politics appeared to be what voters wanted. And it probably still is.
But the race has thrown into sharper relief than ever before that Cruz, who was once seen as a kind of political wunderkind for his rise to power, has nothing to offer other than this—we are we, and we are not them. He can’t offer anything from his record to his constituents, because it only consists of a few inconsequential bills. He can only say, you love Texas and I am Texas. I perform Texas for you.