As Donald Trump runs a fool's errand to try to enlist some red-state House Democrats in his border wall debacle, the real question is when GOP senators up for reelection in 2020 are going to decouple themselves from Trump's suicide mission.
After all, it was Trump's epic anti-immigrant caravan meltdown that decimated House Republicans last November, and based on PPP polling out last week, several Senate Republicans should soon be hedging their bets. So far, Colorado Sen. Corey Gardner and Maine Sen. Susan Collins have signaled tepid opposition to Trump’s shutdown and support for reopening the government. Their voters also showed some of highest aversion to Trump's position in the PPP poll, with 58 percent of Coloradans and 63 percent of Mainers opposed to keeping the government closed until wall funding is provided.
But an unforeseen development Tuesday from a Democratic senator representing a very Trumpy state could signal where the Senate is headed.
That's exactly the type of pressure McConnell will have to feel from his own caucus in order to actually pass the funding bills that have been languishing. The reason Sen. Manchin’s throttling of McConnell is so telling is that Manchin would never be walking out on that limb if he wasn't seeing something in the polling from his home state. Indeed, West Virginia's GOP senator, Shelley Moore Capito, has also voiced support for reopening the government. It's no coincidence that both West Virginia senators from different parties are taking a similar position, albeit with clear tonal differences.
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On Monday, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who strongly supports reopening the government and has repeatedly taken part in talks to broker a workable compromise, issued a threat of sorts if their latest effort falls short.
"We’re not just going to sit back and do nothing," she told reporters Monday.
The breaking point will be when enough GOP senators go to McConnell and tell him their position is untenable and could seriously put their 2020 re-election bid at risk. Even though shutdowns haven't typically held electoral consequences in the following cycle, we've also never seen one this long and harmful undertaken for completely unsupportable reasons. Trump's not only acting like a mad man, per usual, but he’s needlessly inflicting pain that's slowly but surely reaching more Americans by the day. The notion that voters somehow won't remember this by 2020 very well might prove to be a really bad bet informed by old data that doesn't match the circumstances.
Two other GOP senators who could feel the heat soon for blindly aligning themselves with Trump: Martha McSally of Arizona and Joni Ernst of Iowa. McSally didn't even win her Senate bid in the first place; she was appointed. The last thing she needs to be doing in 2020 is fighting an uphill battle with 55 percent of her constituents who disagree with keeping the government closed and who say by a 13-point margin (50-37) that they would be less likely to vote for someone who stood by Trump on the shutdown. The numbers for Ernst are about as bad, with 56 percent of Iowans opposed to keeping the government shuttered and saying by a 12-point margin that fealty to Trump on the matter will make them less likely to vote for a candidate.
Did we mention that ZERO House Democrats chose to meet with Trump Tuesday at the White House. Why’s that? Because his position is so politically unsustainable, no one wants to touch it. Sen. Manchin, from one of the Trump-friendliest states in the nation, has clearly come to that conclusion. It’s only a matter of time before more GOP senators follow suit (assuming they want to win re-election), even if they walk more of a tightrope while expressing it.