We’ve been tracking impeachment with our Civiqs survey platform. Let’s look at how that has tracked over the last two years:
Trump fixer Michael Cohen’s guilty plea did more to prod people toward impeachment than the Mueller report did. Support for impeachment among Democrats is 76-10, while opposition among Republicans is as you’d imagine—92-6. Independents have actually been pretty swingy about the whole thing:
Want your mind blown? Check out the disparate results amongst women and men:
Women:
Men:
That’s a whopping 27-point gender gap.
And then look at white men:
That’s the core Trump base. And if you’re wondering, no, the results did nothing to move Trump’s numbers. Everyone is locked into Trump support or opposition. That’s why it’s stupid to worry about who the most “electable” Democrat in the presidential field is. They’re all equally electable. Everyone’s mind is made up. No, we don’t have a magical pony candidate that can win white rural Fox News-watching men. No, we don’t have a candidate that will repel Hillary-voting Democrats and independents.
Everything is baked in. 2020 will be about who gets their base out, just like 2018 was. We won that battle last year. We have a hell of a fight to repeat again in 2020.
As for impeachment, we don’t have national support, but we do have a moral obligation to fulfill constitutional requirements. Personally, I think it’s an imperative. But Democrats can certainly move the needle forward with aggressive oversight and investigations, and let the facts lead where they may.
And no matter what House Democrats decide in the end, the real effort to oust Trump will be November 2020. Republicans will never bail on him. They are utterly incapable of doing the right thing.