Just 40 miles off the Gulf coast of Louisiana top sustained winds in tropical storm Barry ticked over the 75 mph line to officially become Hurricane Barry. But the major threat from the storm continues to be not winds, but powerful, drenching rains in an area that’s already saturated from spring floods and recent storms.
The newly rechristened storm continues to track slowly to the north at only around 6 mph. That slow advance should take Barry across southern Louisana on Saturday afternoon, and place it near the center of the state overnight. It also means it will remain in the same area, bringing prolonged levels of high rainfall.
Barry’s classification as a hurricane is likely to be short lived, as winds should drop substantially once the eye passes over land this afternoon. However, the storm can still be expected to drop 10-20 inches of rain over southern Louisiana. Earlier bands of rain left sections of New Orleans suffering from flash floods on Wednesday. And with rivers and streams standing at levels well over flood stage as the lower Mississippi valley absorbs the water from spring floods that plagued the Midwest, there has been concern that Barry’s rains could threaten levees and trigger widespread flooding.
However, forecasts on Friday evening lowered the expected peak river level to a value 2-4 feet below that at which it would overtop major levees. Barring a significant breech, New Orleans and other areas should ride out Barry with local flooding, but avoiding a broad, regional disaster.
This does not mean there is no danger. The storm surge to the east of Barry could reach 6’ in some areas which, added to already overflowing rivers and drenching rains, could result in significant, life-threatening flooding. A state of emergency has been declared across southern Louisiana, National Guard troops are in the area, and mandatory evacuations have been ordered for two parishes with significant areas outside the protection of levees.
More slow moving storms with higher amounts of rain are one of the features predicted by many models as an effect of the climate crisis.