In Syria, Turkish forces are closing in on Kobani, killing civilians along the street as they come—even though Donald Trump claims that autocratic leader Recep Erdoğan promised to steer clear of the key Kurdish-controlled city. Meanwhile, Mike Pence is on his way to Istanbul, where he’s already been snubbed by Erdoğan, who says he will not meet with with him.
Both events are vivid demonstrations of what happens when leadership demonstrates weakness, cowardice, and the willingness to put personal greed ahead of national concerns. The United States may have the most powerful military on the planet, but Erdoğan is more than willing to thumb his nose at Trump—because he believes he has Trump’s number.
Lindsay Graham may be fuming that he was witness to a call in which Erdoğan told Trump he would stay away from Kobani, but so what? Trump already broke his word to the Kurds. Trump already broke the Iran nuclear treaty. Trump already demonstrated that he would hold an ally hostage over political dirt. Trump already demonstrated that he can’t be trusted. In fact, he didn’t just demonstrate that—he ran on it. Bragged about it. Treated his willingness to ignore a signed contract and cheat his partners to up his own profit as a selling point.
Surprise. The world has been watching. No one will bother to make a deal with the United States, because the United States doesn’t uphold its end.
Erdoğan certainly realizes this. So do Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. And what all of them have learned is that there’s absolutely no reason to fear Trump. Erdoğan believes that Trump will bluster, pout, and do next to nothing. Which made it dead simple for Turkey to flat-out reject a U.S. demand for a cease-fire. It made Trump’s offer to “broker talks” between Turkey and Kurdish forces an eye-roller. Turkey doesn’t need anything from Trump except that he keep being Trump. That’s all it requires to roll across a longtime American ally and practice a little genocide.
This is what Donald Trump has accomplished: Russian forces are picking over hastily abandoned U.S. bases. Syrian forces are taking areas that had held out against Assad’s regime for the better part of a decade. Turkish forces are slaughtering their way through the heart of an area that was the most stable and peaceful in the region. The ISIS flag is again being lofted by hundreds, if not thousands, of escaped prisoners. Which part of that is winning?
Meanwhile, Mike Pence is already in the air to travel to a meeting that’s not going to happen. Instead, Pence will get his chance to meet with lesser officials. "I'm not going to talk to them,” said Erdoğan. “They will be talking to their counterparts. When Trump comes here, I'll be talking."
Erdoğan is saying that if Trump wants to talk, he has to nut up and come to Erdoğan’s house. Don’t expect that to happen soon.
In any case, Pence’s announced purpose was to again push for a cease-fire, and the Turkish leader has already made clear what he thinks of that idea. “They say ‘declare a ceasefire’. We will never declare a ceasefire.”
Wednesday, Oct 16, 2019 · 1:13:35 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On Wednesday morning, the communication director for Erdoğan appeared to contradict earlier statements, saying that Erdoğan would talk with the delegation led by Pence, which also includes Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. However, that change is not reflected on Erdoğan’s own webpage, which continues to indicate otherwise.
At this point it is unclear what will happen.