Donald Trump was looking for a big post-convention polling bounce. So far, it doesn’t look like he got it. A new ABC/Ipsos poll shows Trump's favorable rating ticking down one point since the Republican National Convention (RNC), from 32% to 31%. Biden’s, meanwhile, went from 45% to 46%. Obviously those numbers are well within the margin of error, but it’s for sure not the bounce Trump wanted.
Civiqs suggests the same non-bounce, with Trump’s favorable rating static at 42%. And, of course, Trump’s convention got poor television ratings, suggesting a lack of enthusiasm for or interest in what he had to say.
If history is any guide, Trump is in trouble. “Looking at elected incumbents, 6 of 8 times the incumbent lost ground when comparing polls immediately following the convention and the final result,” CNN reports. “One was Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, who was leading by double-digits and went on to win by a slightly wider double-digit margin. The other was George H.W. Bush in 1992 who trailed by single digits and went on to lose by a slightly narrower single-digit margin.”
Here’s another bad sign for Trump: After consistently bragging about his popularity with the military for years, Trump narrowly trails Biden among active-duty service members in a Military Times poll taken before the conventions. While the poll isn’t a fully representative sample of the entire military, with respondents drawn from Military Times subscribers, it shows Trump’s favorability declining, from 46% favorable and 37% unfavorable early in his time in office to 38% favorable and 49.9% unfavorable now. Officers had a more negative view of Trump than did enlisted service members.
This race continues to be likely to tighten from Biden’s gaudy leads of the early summer, with signs of that already emerging. A Morning Consult survey released over the weekend showed former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over Trump narrowing slightly but remaining at six points. But the RNC was one of Trump’s big chances for a reset, and it doesn’t appear he got one. Look for him to get uglier, more vicious, and more dishonest as he gets more desperate.
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