[[mumbles]] days to go!
Yes, the election is just a few days away, but even if we know who’s going to occupy the White House for the next four years on Nov. 3, we’re not going to have a clear picture of how the state legislative landscape is going to shake out.
For various reasons (which I discussed last week and won’t bore you with again), it’s going to take a few days to figure out which party is going to start next year’s legislative sessions with majority control in key legislative chambers.
But SO MUCH is riding on next Tuesday that, I confess, I’m freaking out a little.
Here’s why maybe you should be, too.
There Is A Light: The possibility persists that GOP leaders in Pennsylvania may attempt to declare the election “failed” in the event the U.S. Supreme Court invalidates thousands of lawfully cast mail-in ballots that arrive after Nov. 3 (which conservative justices have laid the groundwork to do).
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- If SCOTUS overturns the Pennsylvania Supreme Court’s ruling allowing mail-in ballots received by Nov. 6 to be counted, tons of (likely mostly Democratic) votes will be invalidated.
- Conservatives hope this move will throw the closely contested state into the Trump column and give him Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.
But if it doesn’t, that may not be the end of the ballgame.
- Remember that Pennsylvania can’t even start counting its mail-in ballots until the polls open on Tuesday.
- And remember that the overwhelming majority of those mail-in ballots have been cast by registered Democrats.
- So in-person votes, which are counted more quickly, will skew Republican.
- It may even look for a while like Republicans are winning ...
- … Until those mail-in vote totals start getting reported.
- If Republicans have a lead in the hours after the polls close, it will definitely shrink.
- If polling is remotely accurate, any lead Republicans have in the early hours of the night will likely disappear entirely as more mail-in ballots are counted.
That gives GOP lawmakers three full days to … well, do all sorts of things.
- They could call a special session to bring that so-called “Select Commission on Election Integrity” back to life.
- Remember, this commission would be charged with investigating and reviewing “the regulation and conduct of the 2020 general election.”
- The committee will be made up of three Republicans and two Democrats, has subpoena power, and is authorized to “prepare and file pleadings and other legal documents” (emphasis mine).
… like, say, a certificate of ascertainment for Trump’s electors ..?
- The subpoena and investigatory power the resolution endows this “Select Committee” with with the power to find supposed “facts” designed to demonstrate that the election was not run properly or fairly.
- … which could be grounds for a supposedly “failed” election.
- Or they could use session as a bully pulpit to sow public discord and suspicion around mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3, using a SCOTUS-ordered invalidation of ballots received after Nov. 3 to suggest that votes counted after Nov. 3 should be thrown out, too.
- Or they could sit around and wait for the newly 6-3 conservative SCOTUS to arrive at some freshly disastrous and constitutionally and legally dubious Bush v. Gore-esque decision that just happens to have the effect of benefiting Trump.
But!
- If Democrats flip the state House or the state Senate on Tuesday and democracy itself can hold out for a few weeks, GOP shenanigans still in the process of unspooling can be curbed.
- In Pennsylvania, legislative terms technically start on Dec. 1.
- Traditionally, the new batch of lawmakers is sworn in when session restarts in January.
- However, if majority control of one of those chambers flips and there are GOP antics that need a-haltin’, Democrats will break with tradition and get sworn in when their terms start at the beginning of December.
The threat of an arch-conservative SCOTUS throwing out thousands of lawfully cast ballots doesn’t just exist in Pennsylvania (see also: North Carolina), but it’s a key part of a scenario in which GOP lawmakers go to unprecedented extremes to help steal their state for Trump.
But this is just one of many things keeping me up at night.
The Bug: Remember, the whole reason that unprecedented numbers of ballots are being cast by mail this year is the coronavirus pandemic.
- A current outbreak in the Arkansas statehouse has led to a total of 10 (and counting) lawmakers there testing positive for COVID-19.
- This is the second worse statehouse outbreak to date.
- Nationwide, at least 162 state legislators have tested positive from the coronavirus. Three lawmakers are known to have died from it.
But, back to elections.
Hold Me, Thrill Me, Kiss Me ...wait don’t kiss me there’s a pandemic on and that would Kill Me: I shared (and explained in boring detail) my chamber ratings in this space a couple of weeks ago, but that was three months ago in Trump/pandemic time, so I’ll drop them again here.
To save you a click, they are
- Arizona House: Tossup.
- Arizona Senate: Tossup.
- Michigan House: Tossup.
- Minnesota Senate: Likely D.
- North Carolina House: Lean R.
- North Carolina Senate: Likely R.
- Pennsylvania House: Lean R.
- Texas House: Tossup.
I have a late addition to the list.
- Iowa House: Tossup.
- I’m also moving Texas House to Lean R.
- National-level GOP groups have dropped a LOT of late money here their efforts to keep this chamber in Republican hands.
- In a House where Democrats have to flip nine seats to win a majority, no fewer than 12 Republican candidates each raised over $1 million in the past month.
- Five of those 12 candidates are running in those key nine House districts that Beto O’Rourke won in his landmark U.S. Senate bid two years ago.
- Two Democratic candidates (both of them running in Beto-won districts) also pulled in over $1 million during that period.
- It should come as little surprise that a major source of this late money is Karl Rove, who, aside from being George W. Bush’s political hatchet man, helped orchestrate the GOP’s 2010 effort to win ALL THE statehouses in time for the last round of redistricting.
- Because he knows— and as he said himself in 2010,—“he who controls redistricting can control Congress.” (His gendering, not mine.)
- And a few million dollars invested now in keeping the Texas House—and complete control of redistricting in the state—in GOP hands will results many, many millions of dollars saved over the next decade by drawing nice, safe Republican districts that the party won’t have to spend tons of money on defending.
- Because competitive congressional districts = expensive congressional districts.
Does money win elections?
Absolutely not.
The fact that Republicans are out-raising Democratic candidates doesn’t mean that Republicans will actually defeat Democratic candidates.
… but money sure helps.
The Beginning Is The End Is The Beginning: Okay. Take a deep breath.
We have a lot more than five days worth of work do to.
Because after all this election mess settles out?
That’s when things get hard.
Winning is just the starting block. Governing is the marathon.
And when Democrats flip chambers in this election, they’re going to be in charge.
And they’re going to have all kinds of Republican messes to clean up.
Like, for starters, coronavirus stuff.
- Not only has actually containing and responding to the virus mostly fallen on the states because of the absolute dearth of federal leadership, but states will be handling most of the fallout from COVID-19 for years to come.
- Even as states are wrestling with whether and/or how to send kids back to public schools, the state budgets that will fund those school in the coming years have had massive holes blown in them by the coronavirus.
- The economy is struggling, so that means less tax revenue for states.
- That tax revenue is the basis of states’ (and localities’) budgets.
- Those state and local budgets fund schools.
- So, the budget holes resulting from the economic fallout from COVID-19 will have to be plugged. Somehow.
- Where will the money come from?
- Social services?
- Road and infrastructure funding?
- Increased taxes on the wealthy?
When Democrats win majorities, they’ll have to make these tough decisions.
And then there’s the matter of actually getting stuff done.
- Even if Democrats flip the U.S. Senate and take unified control of the federal government, the U.S. Supreme Court has been stacked squarely against any kind of progressive reform or policy.
- Democrats might pass some landmark legislation that improves the lives of millions of Americans, but if five of the six conservative justices don’t like it, you can kiss that law goodbye in just a few years.
- And when this conservative court majority guts Roe v. Wade, how will women be able to exercise control over their bodies and protect their reproductive rights?
- By making sure their states pass and shore up protections that will no longer exist on the federal level, that’s how.
And this just scratches the surface.
Even with Democrats in charge in D.C., a lot of the grunt work of implementing federal policies will fall to the states.
Let’s hope there will be a few more Democratic majorities around after next week to help make that happen.
Okay. That’s a wrap for this week.
… and this cycle, I guess?
Thanks for hanging in. You’re why I do this.
So thank you. And good luck.
Stay safe.
See you on the other side.