Holy cats Thanksgiving is just a week away
… which means this is normally where I’d remind everyone that the first Thanksgiving was actually in Virginia (SUCK IT, MASSACHUSETTS) and then list a lot of things to be grateful for, but, well, 2020 just hasn’t done a lot to inspire gratitude.
(Of course, as a Virginian, it is still my duty to remind you that the first Thanksgiving was actually in Virginia. We really like being first/oldest at stuff.)
And this holiday season isn’t kicking off with a complete dearth of things that inspire gratefulness.
Despite Trump and Co.’s embarrassing insistence that the incumbent somehow won reelection, Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. So that’s something!
But as I’ve previously detailed in this space, the down-ballot news was … not great.
While Democrats (probably) won’t be as bad off in the 2021 round of redistricting as they were in the 2011 round of redistricting, that bar is so low that it would get the bends if someone tried to raise it to sea level.
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But we’ve talked about that already.
And now we need to talk about … something else we’ve already talked about.
- Specifically, the Trump campaign’s plot to use GOP-controlled state legislatures to subvert actual, legitimate election results and disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters.
- Despite the fact that it violates due process on multiple levels and is both unconstitutional and illegal eight ways to Sunday, Trump campaign officials openly admitted a few months ago that they were exploring avenues to have the GOP-controlled legislatures in states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin contrive an excuse to somehow ignore a potential Biden popular vote victory and instead have Republican state legislators seat Trump electors to cast Electoral College ballots in December.
- Ground zero for the scheme appeared to be Pennsylvania, but GOP legislative leadership appears to not have an appetite for that level of shenanigans.
- On Monday, Nov. 23, Pennsylvania will certify the elections results, making Biden’s victory in the state official, and that will be that.
Now eyes turn to Michigan where … well, some truly special things are happening.
- Like Pennsylvania, the Wolverine State is slated to certify its election results on Monday, Nov. 23.
- But drama has already plagued the antecedent county-level certification process there, and drama continues as the statewide certification date approaches.
- Wayne County—which includes the overwhelmingly Black-majority city of Detroit and is the largest county in Michigan—met on Tuesday night to certify its election results.
- Despite the fact that it tends to vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, the county’s elections board—like all such boards in the state—is bipartisan: two Democrats, two Republicans.
- By the by, Biden decisively won Michigan (by over 140,000 votes).
- But! If Wayne County’s votes were for some weird reason not counted in the state’s tally, Trump would have won.
- Initially, the two Republicans (who are white) on the Wayne County board said they wouldn’t vote to certify the election results, claiming unspecified (and apparently nonexistent) “irregularities” made them doubt the vote tally.
… unless voting while Black is considered an “irregularity” by Republicans. Which, well …
- Both Trump and the state Republican Party chair openly praised this blatant attempt to disenfranchise Black voters.
- The move quickly caught metaphorical fire nationally, and the Tuesday night meeting dragged on for hours as the Republicans scrambled for a way to cover their asses on this vote.
- In the end, they voted to certify the results after reaching a “compromise” that involved requesting that the secretary of state audit the results.
Whew! Crisis averted!
… not so damn fast.
Gee, whatever could they have to talk about?
- Michigan House Speaker Lee Chatfield and Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey have not yet commented on the agenda for this meeting—but we can hazard a pretty dang well-educated guess.
- You see, Michigan’s legislature is still technically in session.
- Which means that, theoretically, the GOP-controlled chambers could meet and decide to seat Trump electors instead of Biden electors for … reasons!
- And yes, as we all know, this is all extremely unconstitutional and illegal etc. etc.
- But we also know that Trump’s attacks on this election have nothing to do with any sort of basis in law or fact.
- Both Chatfield and Shirkey are recently on record with assurances that they will not award electors to anyone other than the candidate who won the state’s popular vote—clearly Joe Biden.
- However, both of these Republicans already launched a legislative investigation into election results, citing as-yet-unsubstantiated “allegations regarding the integrity” of the Nov. 3 contest.
- And despite the fact that all 83 Michigan counties have certified their election results, the vote by the state board—which, remember, has two Democrats and two Republicans—to certify those results statewide on Monday, which is usually a formality, is currently very much in doubt.
- A delayed certification gives the GOP-controlled legislature more time to pull elector shenanigans.
- Again, illegal and unconstitutional shenanigans, but Michigan Republicans appear poised to sow even more doubt and chaos into this election.
- Multiple members of Trump’s legal team have gone on record this week about their intention to have election results “overturned and [have] the legislatures … make sure that the electors are selected for Trump.”
- And even if Monday comes and goes with an uneventful election board meeting that correctly certifies Biden as Michigan’s winner, there’s still Wisconsin to worry about, which won’t certify its election results until Dec. 1.
No, this pathetic, desperate attempt by the Trump campaign to undermine—and potentially even steal—this election is very much not done.
And of course it won’t succeed.
But the damage it’s causing is real and will persist for cycles to come.
Especially in contests where the results—unlike in this presidential election—are actually close.
… like, say, many state legislative elections.
It’s bad enough that Republican lawmakers are going to use bogus “investigations” into these election results to give them and excuse to exercise every dark fantasy they’ve ever entertained about making voting more difficult and diminishing the impact of people of color, students, voters in urban areas, and any other group the GOP regards as hostile to its interests.
But Republicans are sowing lasting doubts among their base about every single close election they lose in the cycles to come.
And since it’s not terribly uncommon for state legislative elections to be decided by 500 votes or fewer, that could end up being quite a lot.
Okay, enough of that bad news.
Here’s some … different bad news.
As you no doubt recall, Minnesota Republicans kept control of that state’s Senate two weeks ago when Democrats picked up just one seat in the chamber when they needed to flip two to win a majority in the 67-member body.
This also prevented Democrats from winning trifecta control of Minnesota state government—which would have been helpful not only in the next round of redistricting, but also for a whole host of policy matters.
Well, when it November Rains it pours, as the saying doesn’t quite go, and Democrats suffered another self-inflicted injury this week when Democratic state Sens. Tom Bakk and David Tomassoni announced that they bailing on their caucus to become independents.
Bakk—who was ousted as Democratic caucus leader earlier this year—and Tomassoni totally acknowledged that they were bolting to gain more power in the chamber; specifically, they cited the chance to “chair committees.” Majority Leader Paul Gazelka apparently welcomed the move, promising that they would lead “prominent” committees.
So this leaves Minnesota Senate Republicans and their two new cronies with a 36-31 majority in the chamber. The entire Senate is up in years ending in 0, 2, and 6, but while Democrats will have another chance to flip the Senate in just two years, no one knows what the district lines will look like in 2022.
Sigh.
So I’ve received some requests over the past week or so for a general rundown of where Democrats and Republicans flipped state legislative seats and where various chambers stand now.
Because the Daily Kos Elections crew is the most indispensable resource in this business, we, naturally, have a sweet spreadsheet that tells you everything you might ever want to know (and includes races from multiple levels of the ballot, ballot measure results, and more).
But if the thought of poring over another spreadsheet makes you want to claw at your eyes, here’s the quick and dirty, with the shift in margin (and where the chamber stands post-election):
- Arizona Senate: +1 Dem (14 D/16 R)
- Connecticut House: +7 Dem (98 D/53 R)
- Connecticut Senate: +2 Dem (24 D/12 R)
- Florida House: +7 Republican (42 D/78 R)
- Florida Senate: +1 Republican (16 D/24 R)
- Iowa House: +6 Republican (41 D/59 R)
- Kansas House: +2 Republican (36 D/86 R)
- Michigan House: +1 Dem (52 D/57 R)
- Minnesota Senate: +1 Dem (33 D/34 R but for the jerks mentioned above, which effectively makes the chamber 31 D/36 R)
- Missouri House: +1 Dem/ +1 Republican (49 D/114 R)
- Missouri Senate: +2 Dem/+1 Republican (10 D/24 R)
- North Carolina House: +3 Republican (52 D/68 R)
- North Carolina Senate: +1 Dem (22 D/28 R)
- North Dakota House: +1 Republican (14 D/80 R)
- North Dakota Senate: +3 Republican (7 D/40 R)
- Oklahoma House: +5 Republican (19 D/82 R)
- Oregon House: +1 Republican (37 D/23 R)
- Pennsylvania House: +4 Republican (90 D/113 R)
- South Carolina House: +3 Republican (43 D/81 R)
- South Carolina Senate: +3 Republican (16 D/30 R)
- South Dakota House: +3 Republican (8 D/62 R)
- South Dakota Senate: +2 Republican (3 D/32 R)
- Wisconsin Assembly: +2 Dem (36 D/61 R)
- Wisconsin Senate: +2 Republican (11 D/20 R)
- Wyoming House: +1 Republican (7 D/51 R)
- Wyoming Senate: +1 Republican (2 D/28 R)
States not listed above either
- Had no change, or
- Results haven’t been finalized yet.
Well, that’s a whole lot of doom and gloom.
But, as I mentioned up top, this is the last edition of this missive before Thanksgiving.
And while there’s definitely a lot to be worried about and scared of right now, we can’t afford to forget to be grateful for the good things in our lives.
Me? I’m grateful for you.
You read this.
You care.
Despite the energy that requires at a time when we’re all feeling a little out of steam, you care.
That’s amazing.
You’re amazing.
Thank you.