Leading Off:
• ME Ballot: In a fascinating and potentially far-reaching development, organizers in Maine have succeeded in obtaining enough signatures to place a measure on next year's ballot that would require the state to adopt instant-runoff voting for all federal and state elections. A number of critical races in Maine in recent years have featured notable independent candidates, and as a result, some victors in big races have won with relatively small pluralities. The best example came in the 2010 governor's race, when Republican Paul LePage prevailed with less than 38 percent of the vote, thanks to a split on the left.
But under IRV, such splits would become irrelevant. Voters simply rank the candidates in order of their preference, and if no one clears 50 percent in the first round, the second-choice votes of those whose top pick was the last-place candidate are re-allocated accordingly. If no one takes a majority at that point, the process continues until someone does. While IRV might benefit Democrats, who've generally been on the wrong side of those plurality wins, it simply gives more people a voice and ensures that no one can win an election without the support of a majority of voters.
Republicans might therefore come out against the measure, but they could also benefit from it at the legislative level, so it remains to be seen how the battle-lines will be drawn. While several municipalities around the country use IRV, Maine would become the first state to employ such a system in statewide or congressional elections.
Senate:
• FL-Sen: We've never encountered a poll from Florida Atlantic University before, and their first one is, well, odd. For starters, do you believe that Ben Carson is actually beating Hillary Clinton 50 to 41 in the Sunshine State? Or that Trump is up 49-41? We're going to guess the general consensus is "no."
Yet in spite of that, the same survey finds Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy leading two Republican contenders, Rep. Ron DeSantis and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, albeit by widely differing margins:
• Murphy (D): 38, DeSantis (R): 36
• Murphy (D): 39, Lopez-Cantera (R): 30
Even weirder, Democratic Rep. Alan Grayson trails both Republicans:
• Grayson (D): 33, DeSantis (R): 37
• Grayson (D): 34, Lopez-Cantera (R): 38
As much as we'd love to believe that a significant electability gap has opened up between the two Democrats, no other polls have yet demonstrated such a thing. That's because it's still incredibly early, and most voters are not yet familiar with the candidates. Murphy certainly is by far the better bet in a general election, and if he's successful in making his case, that will become apparent to the electorate, but any poll purporting to pick up on such a trend at this point is likely off-base.
There's also one other inexplicable thing about this poll that you may have noticed by now: FAU didn't bother to test GOP Rep. David Jolly, who, like Murphy, is his party's most electable option. Oddly, this is the second recent poll to leave out Jolly—Quinnipiac did the same thing last month, too. Jolly may face a tough time winning the Republican nomination, but it's not impossible, and what's more, he's led in the few polls of the GOP primary that we've seen, so ignoring him is patently absurd.
• LA-Sen: Immediately following his withdrawal from the presidential race on Tuesday, GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal was asked if he might instead run for Senate next year. His campaign manager simply said, "No." Too bad, though—would have been fun to see a fight between Jindal and David Vitter, who hate each other more than Donald Trump hates combs.
• NH-Sen: New Hampshire conservatives, led by state House Speaker-in-Exile Bill O'Brien, recently started grumbling again about how much they'd love to nuke RINO squish sellout Kelly Ayotte in next year's primary. But a new poll from a group called Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions finds Ayotte safely entrenched, with a 69-13 lead on O'Brien, who hasn't even said he'd run. Note, though, that CRES, which nominally supports alternative energy, used a Republican firm called Just Win Strategies to conduct this survey and has sent out mailers in support of Ayotte.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: On Wednesday, three Republican state legislators from Jefferson Parish crossed party lines and endorsed Democrat John Bel Edwards. Jefferson is Republican David Vitter's home base, and he probably can't afford to lose it on Saturday, so the last thing he needs is these politicians encouraging conservative voters to jump ship.
The legislators are also taking a big gamble by siding with Edwards. In Louisiana, the governor has a huge role in determining who holds key legislative posts. If Vitter wins, there's little doubt that he'll make sure the defectors have as little influence as possible. But if Edwards prevails, he's likely to reward the Republicans who came to his aid. The polls all look good for Edwards, and another Market Research Insight survey gives him a 54-39 edge. But especially after the huge polling miss in Kentucky earlier this month, no one's really sure what to expect, and a Vitter win is far from out of the question.
Edwards' allies are also out with two more spots. The DGA-backed Gumbo PAC argues that Vitter didn't take Syria and ISIS seriously, while the Louisiana Water Coalition promotes Edwards as a small-town conservative.
House:
• IN-02: Earlier this year, Republican state Rep. Carlin Yoder refused to rule out a primary challenge to Rep. Jackie Walorski, so you might reasonably conclude that his just-announced decision not to seek re-election would be a step in that direction. However, Yoder said in a statement that he's adopting a child and therefore "family comes first"—not the sort of things a politician usually says when he's contemplating a bid for higher office. While Walorski had a reputation as unhinged before she joined Congress, she's mostly kept her head down and no one else from her own party has expressed an interest in running against her.
• KY-01: Unexpectedly called back to his home planet for the festival of Pon Farr, Vulcan Ambassador (and one-time attorney general candidate) Todd P'Pool announced on Wednesday that he would not seek the GOP nomination in Kentucky's open 1st Congressional District. The two main contenders for this dark red seat are outgoing state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer, who lost the Republican primary for governor earlier this year, and Michael Pape, the longtime district director for retiring Rep. Ed Whitfield, who's given Pape his blessing.
• TX-08: Ordinarily there'd be little reason to think that veteran GOP Rep. Kevin Brady, who just took over the House's powerful Ways and Means Committee following Paul Ryan's ascension to the speaker's chair, would be at all vulnerable to a primary challenge. Sure, establishment Republicans always have to watch their backs, but unlike a lot of the schleppers in his caucus who've turned in weak intra-party performances, Brady's never taken less than 68 percent as an incumbent.
But the fellow Republican who just announced a bid against Brady comes with an unusual pedigree. Former state Rep. Steve Toth unexpectedly knocked off five-term incumbent state Rep. Rob Eissler in a 2012 primary, who seemed blindsided by the challenge and left an amazing $650,000 unspent in his campaign war chest. Toth rode a wave of anti-incumbent tea party anger, but his surprise victory may have over-inflated his ego, as he got stomped when he quickly tried for a promotion to the state Senate just two years later.
So can he resurrect the magic and do to Brady what he did to Eissler? Probably not. Brady's got a million bucks on hand and Texas has an early primary (March 1) that coincides with its presidential primary, meaning more casual voters will show up to the polls—something that typically favors establishment types like Brady, rather than outsider firebrands like Toth. Still, though, Brady ought to watch his back, because we've seen enough surprises to know that they're no longer very surprising anymore.
Legislative:
• MS State House: Tied elections tend to happen with some frequency in the United States—after all, there are over 500,000 elected officials in this country, so we're just bound to see some draws, especially in smaller races. Still, it's a little unusual that a contest for a post as prominent as state legislature has wound up knotted, but that's exactly where things stand in Mississippi's 79th State House District. There, Democratic incumbent Bo Eaton and Republican Mark Tullos have battled to a stand-still, with each man earning 4,589 votes in an election earlier this month.
Therefore, under state law, the two will literally draw straws on Friday to determine the winner—but the game is rigged, and the Republican is sure to win. That's because the loser of the draw is free to challenge the results before the House, and because Republicans hold a majority, they can simply award the seat to Tullos. Eaton says that if the matter were put to a secret ballot, he thinks he'd win based on the friendships he's cultivated across the aisle in his 19 years in the legislature. But because the vote will be public, Republicans will feel tremendous pressure to back Tullos, especially since doing so will give the party the one additional seat it needs to secure a super-majority.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.