After taking a beating two years ago, Democrats are feeling pretty good about their chances to make gains in state legislatures nationwide this fall. Indeed, there’s really almost nowhere to go but up: With Republicans dominating legislatures at a level not seen since the Civil War, Democrats pretty much only have room to improve their standing. Both parties are already looking ahead to the 2020 redistricting cycle, but if Democrats can flip some legislatures, they could produce crucial progressive policy gains much sooner.
Although widespread Republican gerrymandering sharply hinders Democratic chances in many important states (including Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida), the party is targeting chambers in many other states, as shown on the map above. We’ll take a close look at five of of those states below: Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, and New York.
Let’s start with Michigan, where Republicans have completely controlled the state government since the 2010 midterms. They’ve used their majorities to, among other things, pass anti-union “right-to-work" laws, restrict voting rights, and undermine democracy in local governments. On a statewide basis, Democratic candidates frequently win more votes for the state legislature than Republicans do, yet gerrymandering gives the GOP consistent majorities.
That helped Republicans win a 63-47 state House majority in 2014. That’s a steep hill to climb, but as recently as 2012, Democrats faced a much smaller 59-51 deficit. And despite the large gap, Team Blue might be able to win back power in the lower chamber this year thanks to presidential-year turnout and GOP Gov. Rick Snyder’s plummeting approval ratings. Republicans are on defense, trying to protect seven seats they hold that Barack Obama also carried. (Democrats only have one seat that Mitt Romney won.) If Democrats can win those seven seats, they’d need just two more to retake the chamber—and finally provide a check against Snyder after six years of damaging one-party rule.
Let’s take a look at four more important states where legislative chambers could change hands.
Republicans in Colorado just barely won an 18-17 state Senate majority in the 2014 wave, and Democrats are well-positioned to regain power in November. Their path to a majority runs through the 19th District, which Obama carried by a 52-45 margin, and luckily, they don’t have to worry about defending any seats that Romney won. Combined with their hold on the governor’s office and their more secure majority in the state House, winning back the Senate would once again give Democrats the proverbial state government “trifecta,” which they held until two years ago. Back then, Democrats were able to pass legislation like all-mail voting, which makes voting easier and increases turnout. New progressive priorities would immediately become possible if they can take back the Senate.
As in Colorado, Republicans in Minnesota just narrowly regained one legislative chamber and ended a Democratic trifecta in 2014. In this case, it was the state House, where the GOP now holds a 73-61 majority. Minnesota's maps weren’t gerrymandered by Republicans (rather, they were drawn by a judge), but geography still hampers Democrats: Obama just carried a bare majority of state House districts, even though he won a comfortable eight-point victory statewide. As a result, Republicans hold eight Obama districts while Democrats have just one Romney seat. Democrats are targeting several districts in the well-educated Minneapolis suburbs—exactly the kind of territory where Donald Trump has been weighing down the GOP, so Democrats might have a real shot at recapturing the House.
Two years ago, Democrats in Nevada learned the hard way that you can’t just totally give up on a tough race at the top of the ticket and not expect major losses further down the ballot, which is exactly what happened when the party failed to put up a credible candidate for governor. Horrific turnout led to a major wipeout, allowing Republicans to capture both legislative chambers for the first time since 1928. Fortunately, Democrats are decently positioned to regain majorities in both. Republicans hold just a one-seat majority in the Senate, and they’re defending two open seats that Obama carried, while presidential turnout should help Democrats undo their losses from 2014.
And though Republicans hold a wider 25-17 advantage in the state Assembly, the playing field favors Democrats even more than it does for the upper chamber. Seven Republicans, plus one Republican who switched to the Libertarian Party, all occupy seats Obama carried. Five of those districts even favored Obama by double digit margins; if Democrats can flip them all, that would give them the majority right there. But while Trump has been a drag on the GOP ticket in many places, he’s shown surprising resilience in the Silver State, thanks to his strength with white voters who lack college degrees. However, the favorable Assembly map should be enough to offset that and help Democrats regain their majority.
Finally, there’s the confounding case of New York. Even though Obama won this very blue state by a huge 63-35 margin, one of the nation’s worst Republican gerrymanders helped give Republicans a slim 32-31 state Senate majority in 2014. Exacerbating the problem are six renegade Democrats, including one conservative who outright caucuses with the Republicans, and five other members of the so-called “Independent Democratic Conference.” With the tacit backing of Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo, these turncoats have conspired to give Republicans control of the chamber, even after Republicans lost their majority following a special election earlier this year.
Making matters worse, the IDC is poised to add a sixth member next year. However, mainstream Democrats are making a push for a true majority, and if they can win enough seats, they might even be able to cut a deal with the IDC to rejoin the fold. Unlike in many states, the Republican caucus relies overwhelmingly on districts Obama carried, including 24 of their current 31 seats. While the GOP can normally count on ticket-splitting, particularly upstate, several of their districts still favored Obama by double digits. Of course, mainstream Democrats would prefer not to have to deal with the IDC at all, but gaining the eight seats they’d need in order to do that is tall order. However, with Trump at the top of ticket, anything is possible.
Democrats are looking at further offensive opportunities in several other states, including Arizona, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Washington, and if 2016 turns into a truly favorable Democratic year, the party might win back roughly a dozen legislative chambers nationwide. But even if they fall short of majorities in some states, any gains Democrats can make will help pave the way for further victories in 2018 and 2020—just in time for the next census, and the next round of redistricting.