A few weeks ago at The Week, Michael Brendan Doughtery pointed out that the longest-running narrative in the Republican contest (besides "Pretty soon voters will wake up and reject Donald Trump") has been Marco Rubio almost ascendant. Any minute now, the pundits have been saying for months, Marco Rubio will shine, and all this angst over Trump and Ted Cruz and the total dud establishment campaign of Jeb! Bush will be for naught, because Rubio will sweep in and save the day. Any minute now. Meanwhile, he barely budges in the polls.
So what do we hear from Politico this week? Rubio will have his moment.
Like a contestant on a Republican version of “Survivor,” Rubio has long been content to hang with the pack and avoid elimination. For months he has been playing the expectations game—and hearing a chorus of conservatives carping about his campaign’s cool, confident approach. But now, with Donald Trump taking the lead back from Ted Cruz in Iowa, Rubio’s team says the caucuses are setting up to give their candidate the boost he needs to sideline rivals in New Hampshire.
"Marco's goal all along has been to survive, wait for other people to get kicked off the island and pick his moment—and that's what you're seeing in Iowa," said one Republican familiar with the campaign's approach. "The only thing that has changed is the staying power of Donald Trump. And that might be a good thing for Marco."
Well, yeah. He's "surged" in Iowa to 13 percent from 12 percent a month ago. So a very distant third in Iowa is going to propel him to victory! Because that will carry him into New Hampshire where he'll maybe take second, if John Kasich continues his rise. Kasich is up six points in the composite polling since December, while Rubio, well, he's on the downward slope. Just a little under two points, but still swinging downward.
All part of the game plan, though. He's going to keep on losing all the way to November. Or maybe the convention, when the powers that be decide to be freaked out about Trump and have to settle on someone.