The great polling news continues. Fresh out this morning PRRI with a 15% blowout:
1. PRRI: Hillary 51%, Trump 36%. +15%
Clinton maintains double-digit (51% vs. 36%) lead over Trump
With only three weeks remaining in the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% vs. 36%, respectively). Support for Clinton among likely voters has increased significantly over the past few weeks. In late September, Clinton was tied with Trump among likely voters (43% vs. 43%, respectively).
This poll showed them TIED in late September.
Democratic voters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Republican voters are to support Donald Trump. Ninety-five percent of Democratic likely voters say they are supporting Clinton while roughly nine in ten (87%) Republican likely voters report they are supporting their party’s nominee. Clinton has opened up a substantial lead with independent voters, who are supporting her by a 16-point margin (46% vs. 30%, respectively). Notably, roughly one in four independent voters say they will be casting a ballot for a third-party candidate (17%) or report no candidate preference at all (7%).
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There is that enthusiasm gap again favoring Hillary. And, Hillary blows Donald away with Independents, by 16%. That is devastating for Donald.
Clinton continues to benefit from her overwhelming lead among female likely voters, who favor Clinton over Trump by a margin of nearly two to one (57% vs. 31%, respectively). Male likely voters are nearly evenly divided in their candidate preferences, with roughly four in ten supporting Clinton (44%) and Trump (40%). This represents a stark reversal from last week, when Trump held a considerable advantage over Clinton among male voters (48% vs. 37%, respectively).
Hillary leads with women by 26%, and she also leads with men by 4%. In this polling universe men have strongly turned against Trump within the last week or two, and that’s something we are seeing from other polls as well. Just last week Trump was ahead with men, but many are waking up to Trump’s toxicity and lack of qualifications.
In this poll Hillary is over 50% in a 4-way contest, Trump is down to 36%, Gary Johnson gets 3% of the vote and Jill Stein is at 0%.
This COULD just be how the final result shakes out, I believe Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are probably where they are going to be in the end, a combined 3% or less. Trump’s numbers are falling apart.
H/T to lastman:
2. Survey USA — Hillary 46%, Trump 36%, +10%
On Eve of Final Debate, Clinton 10 Atop Trump Nationwide in Take-No-Prisoners Campaign
With Americans across the country already voting, 1 day till the 3rd Presidential debate and 20 days until votes are counted, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeats Republican Donald Trump 46% to 36% in an election today, 10/18/16. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 5%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 2%.
* Trump leads by 6 points among white voters.
* Clinton leads by 79 points among African American voters.
* Clinton leads by 35 points among Hispanic voters.
* Trump leads by 15 points in rural America.
* Clinton leads by 8 points in suburban America.
* Clinton leads by 34 points in urban America.
Among all women, Clinton leads by 13 points. That breaks down this way:
* Trump leads by 9 points among rural women.
* Clinton leads by 12 points among suburban women.
* Clinton leads by 44 points among urban women.
Pretty much what you’d expect. Hillary wins suburbs and urban areas, Trump is strongest in rural areas, same applies for women as a sub group. Trump has a small lead with white voters, but that is shrinking by the day, while Hillary blows Trump away with minorities.
Seniors split, 41% for Clinton, 40% for Trump. Clinton leads by 30 points among the youngest voters. Independents split, 34% for Trump, 34% for Clinton. Moderates break for Clinton 45% to 33%. The most affluent voters break narrowly for Trump. Clinton leads 2:1 among the least affluent voters.
We have a great chance to get seniors into our column for the first time in forever. That can be very important moving forward. Seniors come out to vote, rain or shine, so the midterms can look different starting in 2018 if we gain an advantage with seniors.
3. Bloomberg poll, Hillary 50%, Trump 41%, +9%
Hillary vs Trump 50% to 41%, with leaners
Bloomberg’s new poll shows a 9% race, up 9% from tied.
Note: This poll has already been cross tabbed and well analyzed in a very good diary from Denver11. Check it out here:
Bloomberg Poll - Clinton up by 9 and gaining key groups (with poll) [Update - fun in the crosstabs]
Finally, in state polling, Arizona looks more and more likely to be blue this year:
Arizona poll: Hillary by +5% over Trump
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Hillary wins Arizona with both men and women.
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Hillary is even with Whites, and beats Trump with minorities.
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This could be a true blowout election, it could easily be a double-digit win in the popular vote and more than 350 EVs in the Electoral College.
Keep grinding, GOTV, canvass, pledge, phone bank, but we are looking really, really good right now.