The former Prime Minister David Cameron resigned both as PM and his seat in the House of Commons which he won with 60.2% of the vote in last year’s General Election. In the by election yesterday, the Conservative candidate’s vote was reduced to 45%. Perhaps more significant was the reduction in the UKIP vote from 9.2% to 3.5%, beaten into 4th place by the Green Party candidate — Bernie Sanders’ brother Larry who had stood in the next door constituency last year. Most interesting (at least for me) is that the Liberal Democrat* vote went from 6.8% to 30.2%, moving from 4th place last year to second.
Reading the runes of British by election results is complex but I will try to unravel what this result indicates. First though, I should mention a second by election which was held yesterday. The MP for the Batley and Spen constituency, Jo Cox, was murdered during the EU referendum by a man who is reported to have been spouting racist, anti-European language. As a mark of respect, all the other major parties stood aside and did not field candidates against the Labour party. A number of “deplorables” crawled out of the woodwork, including racist and neo-fascist parties like the BNP and the English Democrats. None received more than 1000 votes, most in low double figures, which meant they lost their deposits of £500. I hope the scum who heckled the new Labour MP from the stage thought it was worth their money. The turnout was among the lowest since WWII and it looks like those who had voted for the mainstream legitimate parties and UKIP which had witheld candidates, simply stayed home.
Apart from constituencies with particular circumstances, voting at British General Elections tends to mirror national turnout in the three nations making up Britain. Votes for UKIP have tended to be concentrated in England with some in Wales and obviously the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cmyru are centered in Scotland and Wales. Multiple parties in a “first past the post" (FPTP) voting system very frequently means that the winning candidate receives under 50% of the vote. It also means that a party can get an overall majority in the Commons with as little as a 35% popular vote; the Conservatives got 36.9% of the UK vote in 2015.
As with the USA, demographics and history mean many constituencies are considered “safe” for one or other party (usually only for Labour or Tory). Only around 100 or so of the 600+ Commons seat are usually “in play” at General Elections. Outside of held seats, both the LibDems and UKIP suffer from having a fairly evenly spread support at least in England. This can lead to situation where in 2015, UKIP got 12.6% of the vote but only 1 MP and the LibDems 7.9% but 8 MPs. The sole UKIP MP whined more than Trump about unfairness but he had defected from the Conservatives and, moreover, had campaigned against reforming the voting system in a referendum in 2011. The Alernative Vote system** proposed was far from perfect but could well have led to a LibDem victory in the Witney by election.
Analysing by election results can be a problem if one attempts to project the results nationwide. They obviously get a lot of attention from national politicians. The added factor is that the LibDems are ackowledged to have a formidible by election machine; many LibDem MPs were initially elected at by elections. This time we also have to take into account that the 2015 General Election results were out of the ordinary with the LibDems being punished for going into an unpopular coalition and the Tories claiming credit for the policies they had insisted on — like freeing millions of the lowest paid from paying income tax. These by elections also have to be seen in the light of the schism in the Labour Party who have only just finished re-running their Leadership election and UKIP’s melt-down. They too are looking for a leader after the populist Nigel Farage stepped down (again!). There has been literal in-fighting after they seem to be rudderless following the Brexit vote. One of their leadership candidates, an MEP, ended up unconscious on a walkway in the European Parliament. He had to spend three days in hospital after what was described as “an altercation” or “handbags at dawn” with another MEP. In his resignation from membership of UKIP he branded the party “jungovernable” and in a “death spiral”. BTW, Farage has not abandoned his support for Trump, even after “pussygate", and believes the Don will win next month.
Looking at this result and assuming that Labour will get over their local difficulties which currently put them 18% behind the Tories, the indications are that in England at least, things are starting to return to “business as usual”. By that I mean more like the situation in 2010 rather than 2015. Let’s compare the percentages of the votes not to 2015 but to 2010.
|
2010 |
2016 by election |
Percentage votes in Whitney
Conservative |
58.8 |
45 |
Liberal democrat |
21.5 |
30.2 |
labour |
13 |
15 |
ukip |
3.5 |
3.5
|
This has long been a traditionally safe Tory seat and of course in 2010 the candidate was the Leader of the Opposition which would have added to their turnout as would him being PM in 2015. An added factor in the reduction of their vote would be the Brexit effect. Whitney voted solidly Remain in the referendum so this cold be seen as a vote against PM May’s determination to stick to conditions which would mean a “hard Brexit”. Prices have already gone up following the referendum and the resulting drop in the value of the pound. Worries about jobs in the financial services industry going to Frankfurt would also have played on the minds of the upper middle class commuters to the City.
In 2015, Labour came second and thier vote may well have been at its base of its hard core supporters in 2010. Boundary changes had added to a general decline in their vote from 1997. British voters have a tendency to assume that the second placed in the previous election is the main contender. This “two horse race” factor may well have resulted in the small increase in 2016 and indeed the lower percentage in 2010 when the LibDems were seen in second place.
In 2010, the anti-incumbent government vote went, as very often happens, to the LibDems. In 2015, they were both punished for entering coalition and swept up in the SNP surge in Scotland. After 2015 and again after the Brexit vote, there have been significant increases in membership — real members paying annual fees to be a member (not just to vote for a leader!). This is important as most are young and keen to take part in efforts like GOTV. The LibDems have also been winning local government by elections from both Labour and Conservatives.
*The official name of the British party is “The Liberal Democrats” and the short form “LibDems” in contrast to the US Democratic Party. I am aware of the provocative use of “Democrat Party” in America but please do not infer any derogatory use in this piece.
** The Alternative Vote (AV) system is used in other UK elections and means that a voter indicates their first and second preference candidate for a single seat. There are two columns on the ballot paper so the X goes in the appropriate column. If no candidate gets 50%+1, the second preferences of the candidates with the lowest votes are re-distributed until one reaches that target. The Liberal Democrats’ preferred option is for a Single Transferable Vote (STV) system in multi-member constituencies, as used in the elections for the Northern Ireland Assembly.