Ad Reservations: The latest installment of our House TV and radio ad reservations tracker is now online, and there are a number of moves to discuss. Note that our chart is both backward-looking and forward-looking, since it covers all reservations made between Labor Day and Election Day, so some of the money it tracks has already been spent, and some has yet to be spend (and can still be modified).
• AZ-01: For the first time, the NRCC has shown some interest in helping badly tainted Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu, but it ain't much: just a $52,000 joint buy between the committee and the campaign. The DCCC, meanwhile, added $180,000 here. Last week, Team Blue dropped a poll showing Tom O’Halleran up 45-38, and Team Red never responded. Early voting, which is popular in Arizona, starts Oct. 12, so the GOP is running out of time to respond in full force.
• CA-10: Big news: The DCCC is going in hard for beekeeper Michael Eggman, who is waging a rematch against GOP Rep. Jeff Denham. While the DCCC released a poll as recently as the end of August giving Denham just a 46-43 lead, there'd been no outside spending on this race until now. But the D-Trip just threw down $791,000, and they’re now airing a new spot that calls Denham "Donald Trump's man in Washington" for helping broker a deal that turned a historic post office building into Trump's new D.C. hotel. That's very similar to a recent ad from Eggman that the DCCC helped pay for, though this new ad is an independent expenditure by the committee.
And one explanatory note about our chart: On the right-hand side (in Column N), it might look like the DCCC reduced its reservations in the Sacramento media market, which covers both CA-10 and CA-07, by $1.4 million. But there's actually been almost no change. Rather, what's happened here is that the D-Trip has finally started earmarking some (but not all) of the funds it's set aside for these two races, so now we know that $791,000 is going to the 10th and $672,000 is headed for the 7th. That still leaves an undifferentiated pile of $4.5 million that could be used in either race. The NRCC, similarly, moved $688,000 into the 7th and reduced its general Sacramento pool by $505,000, for a small net increase in this market overall.
• CA-25: The DCCC has added $196,000 here to help Democrat Bryan Caforio, bringing their total to $281,000 (though some of that is from the candidate). The NRCC has taken notice and has booked their first reservations here to help GOP Rep. Steve Knight, to the tune of $418,000. In July, the D-Trip dropped a poll showing Knight up 46-40 in this northern Los Angeles County seat, but there was no major outside spending here until now.
• CA-49: The DCCC continues to believe in Democrat Doug Applegate, increasing their investment here by $364,000, for a total of $517,000. And according to a paywalled report in Politico, the committee is planning to spend "millions" more, though that's not yet reflected in our chart. Republicans haven't made any moves here yet, though they may be expecting GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, the richest member of Congress, to self-fund if he's in real trouble.
• CO-06: It’s not reflected on our chart yet, but the Congressional Leadership Fund said earlier this week that it plans to spend $1.3 million to help GOP Rep. Mike Coffman.
• FL-07: The NRCC is helping out veteran GOP Rep. John Mica for the first time, though it's just a tiny $7,000 joint buy to help air this new ad. The spot is actually Mica's first, a positive ad that features the wife of an elderly veteran who thanks Mica for helping to get proper care for her husband. Democrats have had a massive $3.8 million booked here for a while, and Republicans never responded to a Democratic poll from a few weeks ago showing Mica leading Democrat Stephanie Murphy just 48-45.
• FL-13: Gulp! The DCCC hadn't previously been advertising here, so the committee's new $1 million reservation makes you concerned about Democrat Charlie Crist's chances, especially when you consider that they just released a poll (see our FL-13) item above showing Crist ahead 50-39! Is this insurance, or does it reflect real worry? And all this comes even as the GOP hasn't booked a penny to help Republican Rep. David Jolly. What's going on here?
• FL-18: The NRCC has upped its reservation on behalf of Republican veteran Brian Mast by $776,000, taking its total to $2.7 million and the overall GOP total to $4.4 million. HMP has just under a million booked here, probably because Democrat Randy Perkins is a wealthy self-funder. Honestly, though, he's so rich that he should be able to do without any outside help. Sigh.
• IA-03, NE-02: Here's another race where the DCCC has started allocating from a joint pool, in this case, the one devoted to the Omaha media market. The committee is sending $346,000 more to help Rep. Brad Ashford in NE-02 and $187,000 for Democrat Jim Mowrer in IA-03. That's actually a net overall increase of around $180,000 between the two seats, since the Omaha pile only dropped by $350,000. Republicans added $209,000 for IA-03 and $294,000 for NE-02.
Given the tough polls Mowrer has seen in his race, it's a hale sign that both sides are ramping up rather than backing off. Ashford, meanwhile, recently released a poll showing him leading Republican Don Bacon 50-40 and while Team Red never released their own numbers, both sides’ spending is also a sign that neither party thinks he’s up by that much.
• ME-02: CLF has jumped in to this race on behalf of Rep. Bruce Poliquin with a $478,000 reservation, and the NRCC has added $160,000, taking the GOP's total booking here for both groups to $3.7 million. Democrats have $2.5 million set aside here to help Emily Cain.
• MN-02, MN-03, MN-08: We're seeing re-allocations on both sides in the Twin Cities market as well. Confirming reports from last week, HMP has completely pulled out of MN-03, but the DCCC appears to still have faith, since they're newly directing $1.5 million to this seat. HMP has also drawn down its buy in MN-02 by almost $700,000, but there the super PAC has said it feels very positive about Democrat Angie Craig's chances.
Overall, the D-Trip has increased its total reservations for this market (meaning the area that covers all three competitive seats) by that same amount. The NRCC, meanwhile, only upped its total buy in the Twin Cities by around $400,000. Interesting, they've now earmarked a further $1.1 million in MN-08, bringing their total to $2.4 million. Republican Stewart Mills is super-rich, so why does he need a handout?
• NH-01: Is the DCCC feeling good here? Last week, HMP cut its entire $700,000 reservation on behalf of Democratic Carol Shea-Porter, shortly after releasing a poll showing her up 44-34 on badly damaged GOP Rep. Frank Guinta, so we took that as a sign of strength. Now the D-Trip has followed suit, slicing almost $2 million from its planned investment in NH-01. The committee is left with just $1 million still on the books, while Republicans are prepared to spent $3.2 million. Given his baggage, his incredibly narrow escape in last month's GOP primary, and his very weak fundraising, it's more plausible that Guinta is dead man walking as opposed to CSP being hopeless.
• NJ-05: Last week, we reported that CLF had made a new $350,000 reservation here. But either we received incorrect information, or CLF hastily reserved time and then cancelled, since that one's no longer on the books. CLF in fact made sure to tell us that they weren't involved in this race, which suggests they're afraid of catching GOP Rep. Scott Garrett's cooties. HMP, meanwhile, added $373,000.
• NV-03, NV-04: There’s more reshuffling on both sides in Las Vegas, and we also have an answer to a mystery. Last week, we noted that the DCCC appeared to cut back its reservations by about $1 million here, but it turns out those funds were shifted to "hybrid" ads, which allow the committee to coordinate directly with campaigns. Such spots have to focus on an opponent's political party as much as the candidate itself in order to get around anti-coordination rules, and you can see a good example of it with this ad here, which attacks "Republicans" even more than it does GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy. Obviously, this kind of approach only works in places where one or the other party is unpopular, but Las Vegas is surely one such locale for the GOP.
• NY-01, NY-03: The NRCC has apparently dropped its entire $1.8 million reservation on behalf of GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin in NY-01, and that doesn't seem like a good sign for Team Blue. CLF still has $505,000 booked here, and HMP has $573,000 reserved for Democrat Anna Throne-Holst, but the DCCC hasn't stepped forward to buy any TV time. We haven't seen any polls here, but absent a catastrophic scandal, when a party committee leaves an incumbent to his own devices, it almost certainly means he's in good shape.
But a little further west on Long Island, though, the picture is the exact opposite. In NY-03, it looks like the NRCC has also cut what had been a $1.1 million reservation down to just $100,000. That would mean they've all but given up on Republican Jack Martins, who has trailed Democrat Tom Suozzi by wide margins in a couple of unanswered Democratic polls. (Democrats haven't reserved anything here.)
One big caveat for both of these races, though: Media buying information is imperfect and not easy to acquire. Given that we're seeing two huge moves, both made without much warning, that just happen to be in the same media market, it's possible there's a hiccup in our data. We'll know more next week—or when the NRCC emails us to complain.
• NY-19: CLF's single-biggest addition comes in NY-19, where they've added almost $1.1 million, bringing their total expenditure to $1.8 million. Recent polling has shown this race very close, so it makes sense. But overall, Republicans have $2.8 million reserved here, while the DCCC has just $231,000, which doesn't sound like a tossup, right? However, Democrats may be counting on Zephyr Teachout, who is a fundraising machine, to make up the slack.
• PA-08: CLF added $821,000 here, taking the GOP's total past the $5 million mark. Democrats also upped their reservations by $324,000, for a total of $4.6 million. This comes in the wake of a mid-September Republican poll that showed Republican Brian Fitzpatrick leading Democrat Steve Santarsiero by a brutal 50-38, so both side’s decision to increase their spending is a good sign that neither party things Fitzpatrick has anything like an insurmountable lead.
• TX-23: CLF's final move comes in TX-23, where they increased their reservation by $1 million. Both sides are spending around $3.8 million.
• VA-10: A recent Democratic poll showed GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock beating Democrat LuAnne Bennett 47-45, but Donald Trump is a serious anvil for Republicans in this district, which might explain why the DCCC just upped its buy by $840,000, for a total of $2.6 million. Overall, though, the GOP has a $4.4 million to $3.6 million edge.
• WI-08: Things are even worse in WI-08 than they'd looked. Last week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that the DCCC was cutting $240,000 from its reservation. In fact, the reduction is more than twice that, $494,000, leaving the D-Trip with just $238,000 on the table. GOP polling has shown Republican Mike Gallagher crushing Democrat Tom Nelson in this open seat, and reportedly, Democratic polling doesn't disagree. Too bad.