Pres-by-CD: We’re rolling out five more states from our project to calculate the presidential election results by congressional district: Arkansas, Hawaii, Idaho, New Mexico, and the commonwealth of Kentucky. We have a chart of all 435 congressional districts here, which also includes results from 2012. That's the page you'll want to bookmark, since we're updating it continuously. We'll be pushing out new data on a rolling basis as the results are officially certified and the precinct-level election results we need for our calculations become available. (Ballotpedia has a list of state certification deadlines.)
None of these states hosted any competitive general elections in 2016, and none of these 17 congressional districts was at all close in the presidential race. Hillary Clinton carried both of Hawaii’s seats, New Mexico’s 1st and 3rd District, and Kentucky’s 3rd District by double digits. Donald Trump carried all four Arkansas seats, both Idaho districts, New Mexico’s 2nd District, and the other five Kentucky seats, also by double digits. All of these seats are represented in the House by the party that won them in the presidential contest.
There are a few interesting nuggets buried here. Arkansas’ 2nd District, which is based around Little Rock and represented by Rep. French Hill, went for Trump 52-42, which is a little closer than Romney’s 55-43 win in 2012. This is still far from a swing seat, but it may be winnable for Team Blue in a wave year. Trump took at least 60 percent of the vote in each of the other three seats.
Both of Idaho’s seats are solidly red, but Trump’s 64-25 win in the 1st District was noticeably stronger than his 54-30 victory in the 2nd. Conservative independent Evan McMullin did relatively well in eastern Idaho, and he took second place against Trump in quite a few counties.
Clinton did noticeably worse than Hawaii’s native son Barack Obama in both seats, but she still won with ease. The 1st, which includes much of Honolulu, went from 70-29 Obama to 63-31 Clinton. The 2nd, which includes the rest of the state, went from 71-27 Obama to 61-30 Clinton.
We have an early candidate for reddest congressional district in the nation. Trump carried Kentucky’s 5th, located in rural eastern Kentucky, by an 80-17 margin; Romney won this seat “just” 75-23. Over in the Louisville based 3rd District, Rep. John Yarmuth, Kentucky’s only Democratic member of Congress, looks safe. Clinton carried his seat 55-40, a little better than Obama’s 56-43. However, Republicans just won full control of Kentucky’s state government for the first time in generations and when it’s time to draw up a new congressional map, they may find a way to turn this seat red.
Democrats hold two of New Mexico’s three seats, and that’s unlikely to change soon. The 1st, based around Albuquerque, backed Clinton 52-35, a slightly larger margin of victory from Obama’s 55-40 win here. The 3rd, located in the northern part of the state, backed Clinton 52-37, a considerable drop from Obama’s 58-39 win, but still not incredibly close. The 2nd, which is located in the south, has a large Hispanic population, but Trump didn’t exactly lead to a backlash against Team Red here. Trump carried the seat 50-40, a bit better than Romney’s 52-45 win.