Using a combination of polling and detailed data from the nearly two-thirds of North Carolinians who already have voted, the New York Times has put together an unusual projection of the presidential race in that tight state.
What they say:
Already, about 2,892,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,642,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 9 percentage points – among people who have already voted.
The Times does point out that the polling part of this is based on is a little more optimistic for Clinton than some others. Still, this 6% figure is enough to allow a little slippage and still come out with a win. Is NC another Nevada?