44 Clinton — 42 Sanders.
I emphasize NEW because this is the same result that Quinnipiac got in their last national poll (also 44% Clinton to 42% Sanders).
The previous poll was widely thought to be an outlier. Well, now we have two “outliers."
Quinnipiac is the ONLY live phone pollster that has polled the race since Iowa. All other recent national polls are less methodologically reliable robopolls or internet polls. It will be very interesting to see the results from other national live phone polls, if we ever get any!
- Sanders leads with white voters 50-38, while among non-white voters Clinton leads 55-30.
- Among self-identified Democrats, Clinton leads 47-39, while Sanders leads among self-identified Independents 53-33.
- Among voters age 18-44, Sanders leads 58-33, while Clinton leads with voters age 45-64 by 49-24 and with voters age 65+ 61-24.
- Voters with College degrees favor Sanders 46-41, while voters without college degrees are supporting Clinton 45-40.
The Democratic gender gap is shrinking as women back Clinton over Sanders 47 - 41 percent while men back Sanders 44 - 40 percent. Clinton would have a good chance of winning in November, 83 percent of Democrats say, compared to 69 percent who say Sanders has a good chance. Looking at key characteristics among Democratic voters:
- 93 percent say Clinton has the right kind of experience to be president, compared to 74 percent for Sanders;
- 87 percent say Sanders is honest and trustworthy, compared to 61 percent for Clinton;
- 87 percent say Clinton has strong leadership qualities, with 79 percent for Sanders;
- 86 percent say Sanders cares about their needs and problems, compared to 78 percent for Clinton;
- 82 percent say Sanders shares their values, compared to 75 percent for Clinton.
Put this together with recent polling out of Nevada showing a close race, and recent polling out of South Carolina showing Clinton up by about 20, and the preponderance of the available poll evidence suggests that the true state of the national race is probably somewhere within about 5 points.
My model predicted back on February 8 (based on demographics, exit polls, and other polling data) that if the Quinnipiac 44-42 result was approximately right, then that would translate onto the state level to something like this:
With Clinton up by about 18 in South Carolina and by about 3 in Nevada. That is quite consistent with recent polling.
What this all suggests is that if indeed the results in Nevada and South Carolina are in that general range, we are going to be in for a long primary season, in which the votes cast by voters in states all across the country are going to have an impact on the results.
Going up: