Hillary has won Nevada. But how did she do it? What can we discern from the Nevada results moving forward?
The coalition Hillary won Nevada with:
1. African-Americans.
Hillary’s Nevada result with the African-American voters was 76% to 22%. Turnout from African-Americans was 13%, not that much of a drop from 2008 when this group’s turnout was 15%.
2. Obama folks.
People who want to continue Obama’s policies, strengthen them and making them better, not go into a different direction.
That segment was 49% of the Nevada electorate. Hillary won this segment 74% to 22%.
3. Women.
Women turned out in large numbers for Hillary. Women made up 56% of the Nevada electorate. Hillary won the women vote 57% to 41%, a huge gap. While Bernie won the male vote, the gap was a lot smaller, almost half the gap that Hillary was able to get with women.
4. Hispanics.
Early projections among Hispanics have turned out to be wrong. It appears that Hillary has won the Hispanic vote by double digits, based on strong numbers out of Clark County. Hillary appears to have won Hispanics in Nevada by double-digits.
5. Older voters.
Young voters were mostly with Bernie, but they didn’t turn out. Only 18% of the Nevada electorate were voters between 18 and 29 years of age. Another 17% was the age group between 30 and 44 years of age. However, 35% of Nevada voters were from 45 to 64 years of age, and 31% of Nevada voters were 65 and over. That 31% of 65 and over voters is strongly better than what Nevada saw in 2008.
Hillary got 74% from voters age 65 and higher, and 61% from voters age 45 through 64.
Bernie won young voters, but they didn’t turn out in the ways the older voters did.
6. Democrats
It’s our party. Actual DEMOCRATS strongly support Hillary. Among registered Democrats Hillary won 57% to 41%. Actual Democratic party voters took the race away from Bernie today.
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These are the main coalition members of the Nevada victory, which is now headed towards a win of more than 5%, possibly closer to 6%.
We are seeing Hillary hold strong leads with Hispanics and African-Americans in upcoming states Texas (the BIG one on Super Tuesday) and Virginia. More importantly, as Nevada showed Hillary can win well even without doing great with a specific state’s Hispanic vote because she has so many different strengths in her overall coalition, with African-Americans, Women, registered Democrats, older voters, union households, etc.
Moving forward, states where African-Americans are strong are likely strong wins for Hillary. Many of the Super Tuesday states. Many of the other big states moving forward. But also states that have a mix of all the demo groups are likely wins for Hillary, such as Florida, Ohio, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, etc, because her huge popularity with African-Americans makes all the difference in states where she wins women by big margins, where she basically ties with Whites and generally has an advantage with Hispanics or is tied in that demo group.
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Now on to South Carolina. If Hillary repeats the blowout with African-Americans she got in Nevada — 76% to 22% — she’ll win South Carolina with an absolutely crushing margin, 3 days before Super Tuesday.