Super Tuesday is the first time that any incumbent Republican senators or congressmen will run on the same ballot as Donald Trump, and more than a few have reason to worry that they’ll be the next victims of Hurricane Donald.
Trump and Ted Cruz have spent the last year appealing to the type of voters who hate the GOP establishment, and those voters may well decide to really stick it to Washington by also voting out office-holders further down the ballot. Alabama and Texas will therefore give us our first clue as to whether Trump is capable of wreaking havoc all up and down the ticket, or if the threat he poses to Republicans would “merely” remain confined to the presidential race. Of course, a general election is a different beast from a primary, but if some GOP incumbents unexpectedly lose on Tuesday, expect even more wailing from angsty, enervated power-brokers.
Polls close in Alabama and most of Texas at 8 PM ET, with a small portion of Texas around El Paso staying open until 9 PM. Candidates in both states need to take a majority on Tuesday to win their party’s nomination outright, otherwise runoffs will be held (on April 12 in Alabama and May 24 in Texas). Runoffs can be perilous for incumbents, since supporters of the defeated candidates often break for the remaining challenger, and runoff turnout is usually low, so the people who are motivated to show up tend to be voters angry with the status quo. It seems like there may just be a few of those out there this year, no?
Our guide to the key races to watch Tuesday is below, and join us at Daily Kos Elections that night for our liveblog of all the presidential and congressional races on the docket.
● AL-Sen (R): Longtime Sen. Richard Shelby has never had a problem winning Republican primaries since he left the Democratic Party in 1994, and it’s hard to see him losing to businessman Jonathan McConnell this time. Shelby, who leads the powerful Senate Banking Committee, is a monster fundraiser, and he’d been saturating the airwaves with positive ad after positive ad. (Though one of those spots blew up on Shelby in the most hilarious of ways.) McConnell has aired a few commercials portraying Shelby as part of the problem in DC, but he’s had a tough time gaining traction, and major conservative outside groups haven’t done anything to help McConnell get his name out either. Shelby released a poll giving himself a 75-9 edge a few weeks ago, and even McConnell's own internal found the senator with a hefty 55-29 lead. McConnell has unconvincingly tried to argue that he’s close to forcing Shelby into a runoff.
However, it’s uncommon to see a safe incumbent run attack ads, but that’s just what Shelby did in the final week of the race. Shelby may just feel like being cautious: He has millions left in the bank, so why not use a few bucks to hit McConnell? But it’s also possible that Shelby’s polls show that he actually is in danger of going to a runoff. There’s also a chance that Shelby feels that with Trump and Cruz poised to do well in Alabama, his polls aren’t reliable. It’s tough to see Shelby taking less than 50 percent but if he does, this is a whole new race. But no matter what happens, the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock in the fall in this solidly Republican state.
● AL-01 (R): Tea partier Dean Young almost defeated now-Rep. Bradley Byrne in the 2013 special election runoff for this red coastal seat, and now he’s back for a rematch. Young hasn’t spent much money, and it would be a huge surprise if Byrne has another close call. However, the deep-pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently took to the airwaves to help Byrne, which could be an indication that they’re afraid that the establishment-friendly incumbent could have some trouble. Young and Byrne are the only two candidates on the ballot, so (barring an exact tie), one will win outright on Tuesday.
● AL-02 (R): Republican Rep. Martha Roby is in a similar situation as Byrne. Roby, who is close to the House leadership, faces a primary challenge from underfunded tea partier Becky Gerritson in this solidly red Montgomery-area seat. Roby has been airing ads promoting her conservative record, and she touted a poll in January showing her with a massive 72-16 lead. Still, the Chamber of Commerce also has been airing ads on Roby’s behalf, which again suggests the GOP establishment isn’t taking anything for granted. One minor third candidate is running, so this race could go to a runoff.
● TX-01 (R): Unlike his many colleagues on this list, no one would ever mistake Rep. Louie Gohmert for a member of the GOP establishment. Gohmert has been a complete pain in the ass for the House leadership (he even launched a quixotic campaign against John Boehner for the speakership last year), and he has a history of making comments that would be considered inflammatory if they weren't so incoherent. East Texas being East Texas, Gohmert has never had a problem winning re-election, but this year, he faces a primary challenge from wealthy rancher Simon Winston. Gohmert never bothered to stockpile much money during his six terms in office, so thanks to some self-funding, Winston quickly amassed the larger war chest.
Winston isn’t trying to run to Gohmert’s right (that’s just not possible), but he’s argued that “Congress has become such a circus, and … our representative Louie Gohmert is one of the main clowns.” For his part, Gohmert has been stumping for Ted Cruz in early presidential primary states rather than focusing on his re-election. There have been no public polls here, though Politico recently characterized this race as close. However, Gohmert may be one of the few GOP congressmen whom Trump and Cruz voters might actually like. Again, there’s a minor Republican candidate here, so this one could head to a runoff.
● TX-07 (R): In an ordinary year, eight-term Rep. John Culberson would have little to worry about in the GOP primary for this safely red Houston-area seat. Culberson has routinely won renomination without any difficulty, and neither of his two primary foes, lawyer James Lloyd and anti-immigration activist Maria Espinoza, have spent much money, though two Harris County commissioners have endorsed Lloyd. However, Culberson is reportedly locked in what Politico calls a “tough contest.” If Trump and Cruz voters are looking to take out their grievances on some longtime incumbents, the bland Culberson is exactly the type of guy who will have trouble.
● TX-08 (R): Rep. Kevin Brady recently took charge of the very powerful House Ways and Means Committee, making him a prominent member of the despised House leadership. Three conservatives are challenging him in this safely red suburban Houston seat, with ex-state Rep. Steve Toth emerging as his main foe. Brady is determined not to get caught by surprise like now-former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was last cycle, and he has spent plenty of money to turn back his underfunded opponents. But Brady may have a tough time winning over enough Cruz and Trump voters to secure a majority on Tuesday, and top GOP officials tell Politico that they think a runoff is likely.
● TX-15 (D): Longtime Democratic Rep. Ruben Hinojosa is retiring, and there’s a crowded primary to succeed him in this Brownsville-area seat. Wealthy attorney Vicente Gonzalez has dramatically outspent the rest of the field, though he’ll have a tough time winning an outright majority on Tuesday. Former Hidalgo County Democratic Chairwoman Dolly Elizondo, who is the only woman in this contest, has some resources to get her name out, and she’s backed by EMILY’s List, though EMILY hasn’t aired ads on her behalf. Edinburg School Board Member Juan "Sonny" Palacios, Jr. doesn’t have too much money available, but he comes from a very prominent local political family. Former Hidalgo County Commissioner Joel Quintanilla has barely spent anything, but he may have enough name recognition to make a difference. Two minor candidates are also in. This seat backed Obama 57-42, and it should stay blue in November.
● TX-19 (R): There’s a large field to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Randy Neugebauer in this safely red Panhandle seat, but only three contenders look like they have a shot to advance to the runoff. Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson started this race with the most name recognition and thanks to some considerable self-funding, he’s decisively outspent the rest of the field. Former George W. Bush aide Jodey Arrington, a former Texas Tech vice chancellor who badly lost a 2014 state Senate race to another Republican, and former Col. Michael Bob Starr have also spent enough money to get their names out, though they haven’t got anything like Robertson’s resources. It’s likely that there will be a runoff between two of these three men, though Robertson’s spending spree could give him a chance to win outright on Tuesday.
● TX-21 (R): Longtime Rep. Lamar Smith turned in an unspectacular 60-34 victory against underfunded primary foe Matt McCall in 2014, and McCall is back for a rematch. Like last time, McCall hasn’t spent much money, but the presidential primary could help him make up some ground. Two other Republicans are running, so Smith could find himself dragged into a runoff. This seat, which stretches from Austin to San Antonio, easily backed Romney.
● TX-29 (D): Rep. Gene Green has never had any trouble winning renomination in this safely blue Houston seat, so it was a huge surprise when ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia jumped into the race just as candidate filing closed. This district is overwhelmingly Hispanic, and Garcia, who took third place in the Houston mayoral election last November, is insisting that the area would benefit from having a Latino representing it instead of a white congressman like Green. Garcia even kicked off his campaign by arguing that he’s “not challenging Gene Green. I'm challenging Donald Trump,” citing the vitriol Trump has directed at Hispanics.
However, prominent local Hispanic politicians and Green’s Hispanic colleagues in the House don’t agree with Garcia, and they’ve overwhelmingly sided with Green. Unlike so many incumbents in safe seats who coast year after year only to find themselves abruptly blindsided and penniless, Green wisely built up his war chest during his time in Congress and has been able to dramatically outspend Garcia. One minor Democrat is running, so there’s the outside possibility of a runoff, but there’s no indication that Green’s suffered the kind of damage that would drive him below 50 percent.
● TX-32 (R): Republican Rep. Pete Sessions only beat underfunded tea partier Katrina Pierson (who has since become a prominent Trump spokeswoman) 64-36 last cycle. Sessions faces three poorly funded primary rivals in this safely red Dallas seat, and national Republicans tell Politico that they think he’s in better shape than many of his other colleagues. Still, his unimpressive 2014 performance makes this race worth watching just in case.