With Iowa in the rearview mirror, we can look ahead to next week’s New Hampshire contest. But still no polling from Nevada or South Carolina? Boo! With one contest out of the way, has Iowa impacted the national numbers? Let’s take a look:
DEMOCRATS
Since last week, Hillary Clinton is up 0.4, while Bernie Sanders is up 1.2 points. That’s pretty much float within the margin of error.
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
Morning Consult |
2/2-3 |
51 |
35 |
1/29-2/1 |
50 |
34 |
PPP |
2/2-3 |
53 |
32 |
12/16-17
|
56 |
28 |
Ipsos/Reuters |
1/30-2/3 |
54 |
39 |
1/16-20 |
54 |
35 |
NBC/SurveyMonkey
|
1/25-1/31 |
50 |
39 |
1/18-24 |
51 |
37 |
Yougov/Economist |
1/22-27 |
52 |
40 |
1/15-19 |
50 |
41 |
ibd/tipp |
1/21-24 |
50 |
38 |
1/4-8 |
43 |
39 |
At around 35 percent, Sanders has exceeded my predicted 30-percent demographic ceiling, so celebrate all you want, but he needs to do far better among communities of color if he’s to seriously challenge for the nomination. In Iowa, Clinton won the small non-white cohort by 24 points, so he needs to do better than that once we get past New Hampshire.
Whew, brutal! Since last week, Sanders is up 4.5 points, while Clinton is down four. On the plus side for Sanders, he appears to have this locked up. On the downside, if Clinton can close this to single digits, she’ll have “momentum” because remember, in this primary process, up is down and coming in third is winning.
|
SANDERS |
CLINTON |
CNN/UNH/WMUR |
2/2-4 |
61 |
30 |
1/27-30 |
57 |
34 |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
2/2-3 |
58 |
38 |
1/17-23
|
57 |
38 |
UMass Lowell/7 News |
2/1-3 |
58 |
36 |
1/29-31 |
61 |
30 |
ARG
|
1/29-31 |
49 |
43 |
1/23-25 |
49 |
42 |
Franklin Pierce/RKM/Herald |
1/26-30 |
57 |
37 |
1/20-24 |
55 |
39 |
Look at that ARG outlier. They’re either geniuses, or waaaay out on a limb. The trends are pretty clear here. Only question is whether last night’s debate has changed the dynamics or not.
REPUBLICANS
With the Democratic race getting fun, I’m so over the GOP side. But here we go …
Anyone looking for a post-Iowa letdown for Donald Trump (+0.5) would be disappointed. Ted Cruz (+1.3) and Marco Rubio (+2.1) are also slightly up from a week ago.
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
MORNING CONSULT |
2/2-3 |
38 |
14 |
12 |
1/29-2/1 |
41 |
12 |
8 |
PPP |
2/2-3 |
25 |
21 |
21 |
12/16-17
|
34 |
18 |
13 |
IPSOS/REUTERS |
1/30-2/3 |
36 |
16 |
14 |
1/16-20 |
36 |
12 |
8 |
NBC/SURVEYMONKEY
|
1/25-1/31 |
39 |
20 |
12 |
1/18-24 |
39 |
17 |
10 |
YOUGOV/ECONOMIST |
1/22-27 |
43 |
18 |
14 |
1/15-19 |
38 |
19 |
14 |
IBD/TIPP |
1/21-24 |
31 |
21 |
10 |
1/4-8 |
34 |
18 |
9 |
Speaking of outliers, PPP is out on its own limb. Let’s see what New Hampshire looks like:
Compared to last week, Trump is up 0.9, Cruz is up 0.4, John Kasich is down 1.7, and Rubio is up 0.1. In other words, since Iowa, a whole lot of nothing changed.
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
KASICH |
RUBIO |
CNN/UNH/WMUR |
2/2-4 |
29 |
13 |
12 |
18 |
1/27-30 |
30 |
12 |
9 |
11 |
HARPER |
2/1-2 |
31 |
9 |
12 |
10 |
n/a
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
UMASS LOWELL/7 NEWS |
2/1-3 |
36 |
14 |
7 |
15 |
1/29-31 |
38 |
12 |
9 |
8 |
ARG
|
2/2-3 |
34 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
1/29-31 |
34 |
10 |
16 |
11 |
FRANKLIN PIERCE/RKM/HERALD |
1/26-30 |
38 |
13 |
8 |
10 |
1/20-24 |
33 |
14 |
12 |
8 |
Unlike the drama in Iowa, New Hampshire will be a bit of a snooze if the polling is right. And if it’s wrong? What if all those Kasich people switch over to Rubio to unite the establishment wing of the party in the state? That could very well hand Trump a second defeat, and given how poorly he handled losing Iowa, it would be high comedy indeed.
Then again, Rubio is the last person we want as the nominee. So let’s definitely root for the polling to be right!