Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by +223 in pledged delegates, and by more than 640 delegates (when you include super delegates), a margin of 1223 to 574. That is 1,160 delegates short of the 2,383 needed to clinch the Democratic nomination.
For Clinton to reach 2,383 BEFORE June, she would need to win 58 percent of the remaining pledged delegates – which is her current pledged percentage against Sanders – between now and May 17 as well as add to her super delegate lead (with 200-plus undeclared super delegates remaining).
So clinching the nomination by May is doable for Clinton, but not if Sanders starts pulling off more surprises like his Michigan victory on Tuesday, a scenario which seems highly unlikely to repeat itself, considering that the foremost reason why the polls were off by so much in Michigan is the assumption by political analysts that Clinton would sweep the primary so voters turned their attention to disarming Trump.
Regardless of the reasons, Bernie Sanders got a huge win in Michigan, defying the pundits and the polls. But Sanders has two problems: One, he actually lost ground in pledged delegates (due to Hillary Clinton's big win in Mississippi). And two, next week doesn't just feature Ohio -- it's also Florida, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina, where we'll likely see Clinton increase her delegate lead. To reach the magic number, Sanders will need to win 60% of all remaining delegates, including super delegates. Although Sanders supporters have been actively lobbying super delegates to sign a pledge not to use their vote to decide a nominee, thus an attempt to defy the political process that has been in place since the early 1980’s, there is no indication that the DNC will alter the process in order to accommodate their demands.
Clinton on Track to Win Without Super Delegates
Clinton is likely to earn the 2,382 pledged delegates she needs to win the nomination
Of the delegate projections (left sidebar), only Missouri lacks state-specific data and is therefore based on Clinton’s nationwide 51%-37.6% lead. If those numbers hold, Clinton will hold a 1244-776 lead in pledged delegates following those votes.
So it is a remote possibility for Sanders to make up the deficit in mathematical terms , but the path to get there is highly improbable. To make up a 480-delegate deficit he is projected to have after March 15, Sanders would have to win every single delegate in Pennsylvania AND New York, for example.
By April 22, Clinton will have built a substantial lead in the delegate count with help from several big delegate rich primaries, but June looks to be the most likely month in which Hillary clinches the nomination and becomes the first female party nominee in the history of politics.