It’s 5th of March and 15 states have voted. 11 more states will vote in the next ten days (including this evening). Out of those 11 Hillary will win at least 5 — Louisiana today (no need to explain why), Mississippi on Tuesday (same reason), Florida and North Carolina (same reason) and Illinois (because Bernie started to criticize their hero — Obama) on March 15th. Those five wins will expand Hillary’s lead by some 140 delegates (65 from Florida, 19 from Louisiana, 18 from Mississippi, 23 from North Carolina and 15 from Illinois). However Bernie will also have some big wins — Kansas and Nebraska today, and Maine tomorrow and will cut that lead with 17 (3 from Kansas and Nebraska each and 11 from Maine). The other three races — Michigan, Ohio and Missouri can go each way and we can consider them ties for the purpose of delegate count (though Bernie needs to win Michigan in order to gain momentum next Tuesday or he can very well face 5 losses on March 15th).
Hillary currently leads by 608:413 pledged delegates, or 195 delegates lead. If all goes as I predict it, she will have that lead expanded to 315-320 by March 15th. But that will be her best and the beginning of her decline. Hillary can win big in only two other races — Maryland and D.C. and probably get a 10-point win in Delaware. After March 15th Bernie will have a string of 9 consecutive victories, starting with Democrats abroad on March 21st and adding Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Washington, Hawaii, Wisconsin and Wyoming. After those nine he will cut the lead by approximately 85 delegates to 230. That will probably give him enough momentum to tie or even win in New York (let’s consider it tie). And on the road again until June comes and Hillary’s lead is again under 200 (some virtual ties, some wins for Bernie and Maryland for Hillary). On June 7th New Jersey and California have a total of 600 delegates. 30 points win for Bernie in both can tie the race!
So, why deem it over before it is really over? Why ban all criticism? Do we need to be forced to get n line behind Hillary and work for her before she is even elected? I can’t believe that it’s been 3 days since I got back to blogging here after a pause of 8 years, and I am about to leave again, this time for good. I have lived in censored country before and I shall only say this: Kos, your ultimatum sounds very much like communism!!!