The big point no one is talking about: none of this would have happened had Sanders’ delegates shown up.
On February 20 Nevada held caucuses. Some national convention delegates were awarded based on those results, reported as 53-47 Clinton, so she got the bulk of the delegates (13-10). But … Nevada’s process is complicated, and there were more national convention delegates to be awarded.
On April 2, Nevada held county conventions which choose the delegates to the state convention. Bernie’s team spotted a loophole in the rules allowing people to just show up as “unelected alternate”. And hordes of Sanders supporters did just that, and the total number of delegates for this week’s state convention were slanted in favor of Sanders: 2,124 to 1,722. This was blogged here and elsewhere, and some people went so far as to argue this meant that Sanders had “won Nevada”. It really meant that the Sanders team had outmaneuvered the Clinton team; politics ain’t beanbag. Ted Cruz was doing the same sort of thing to Donald Trump in multiple states before he dropped out.
Then the state convention was held and 1701 Clinton delegates showed up and 1670 Sanders supporters showed up. Of these, 6 Clinton supporters were rejected and 8 Sanders supporters were rejected, either for not being registered as Democrats or not providing proof of living in Nevada. There were also 50 or so Sanders supporters who were rejected who didn’t show, but they were not going to count anyway.
So whether or not anyone had their credentials rejected, Clinton’s team outworked Sander’s team, got >90% of their delegates to the convention while Sanders got <80%.
The Sanders team failed, in other words. They had the state convention in the bag, and they let it escape. And the reason why would seem to be a lack of money and professional staffers — Nevada suffered from the same staff cutbacks as other states that have already held elections. Bernie’s team didn’t do the basic legwork of contacting delegates and getting them to the convention on time.
The key takeaway from Nevada is that Bernie’s out of money and can’t really compete in a national election any longer. Yes, I know he won in Oregon. Based on demographics, 538 originally had Bernie “scheduled” to win ~61% of the vote in Oregon; he got 57%. He needs 65% going forward. He’s falling still further behind, even in friendly terrain.
He’s no longer competitive. It’s time to decide how to lose gracefully.
UPDATE: Provided by jusjtim35 in the comments, here’s a link to the NYT discussing the county conventions of April 2nd. The money quote for my purposes:
“It was a pretty big day for us,” Mr. Weaver said in an interview. “It’s testament to the level of organization we have on the ground and frankly the lack of enthusiasm on the other side.”
The conclusion would be that the Sanders campaign no longer has a high level of organization on the ground — either that, or the Clinton side has become suddenly much more enthused. I’m going with the former, and also mentioning that I don’t find Jeff Weaver to be a very good sport.