Australia is now just hours away from the federal election taking place on the 2nd of July.
The election is to be a double dissolution election, with both the House of Representatives and the entire Senate up for election. Generally, in Australia, governments call elections for the House and half of the Senate, this has been the case for the last 30 years, though technically House-only and half-Senate-only elections can also be called. A double dissolution election can only be called if the Senate fails to pass Government bills. The current Senate failed to pass a bill allowing the Government to create a watchdog with special powers to investigate the construction industry. This issue has not been discussed during the campaign. Australian federal elections for the House operate under a system of both compulsory voting and compulsory preferential voting (instant run-off).
This diary and my current predictive model, Federal Australian Model 2016 Election (FAME2016), are only interested in the House election, though the Senate election is certainly interesting in its own right.
The Government is currently a coalition of the Liberal and National parties, elected in 2013, referred to as the Coalition. These parties have worked together when in federal government for generations, though at times, in certain states, their relationship has been far less amiable. The Liberal party is basically a conservative centre-right party representing the interests of business. The Nationals represent primarily rural electorates and have a focus on the interests of agriculture. Taken together, the Coalition currently hold 90 seats in a 150 member parliament.
The main opposition is the Labor party, their name is less confusing, they represent the interest of labour. Although in recent decades they have embraced open-markets and the deregulation of the economy it would still be fair to categorise them as centre-left. The Australian Labor Party currently hold 55 seats.
The Greens are the third main force in Australian politics. Firmly left of center, they are no longer focused on the environment specifically but have a full range of policies. Progressives. The Greens hold only one House seat, they have considerably more influence in the Senate, but are looking to win more House seats over the next decade.
A small number of House seats are also held by Independents. In the event of a close election, where neither main party win 76 seats in their own right, these representatives would choose which party will form Government.
FAME2016 currently suggests that the most likely outcome of an “election held tomorrow” would be a small Coalition majority government holding 80 seats. However, the Government wins a second term in only 90.3% of simulations. In 9.7% of simulations the parliament would have no single party with majority control. In no simulations would Labor win government outright.
Unfortunately, this all assumes that the Coalition won’t lose any seats to independents this cycle. Which they probably will; see the discussion for New South Wales and South Australia. Therefore a Coalition majority is somewhat less likely and a hung parliament somewhat more likely. For example; if we assume the Coalition lose a total of three seats to independents they will only win majority government 60% of the time and a hung parliament occurs in 40% of simulations.
So in summary; provided the national polls are as accurate are they have historically been, Labor don’ t currently have a chance of forming majority government. The Coalition will be reelected to either a slender majority, or a difficult hung parliament.
The tables in this diary are fairly straightforward; the first column contains the names of each seat colour coded to the party currently holding them. The percentage in the middle column represents FAME2016’s estimate of the likelihood of the Coalition parties winning the seat.
New South Wales has undergone a redistribution (redistricting) since the 2013 election. This has all but guaranteed Labor pick-ups in Barton and Paterson. There are also a large number of other opportunities for Labor if they can pick up just a little more of a swing in the final days of the campaign. Labor can go a long way to winning government with a strong result in this state, though a popular Liberal state government should help to keep the Coalition vote high.
The Seat of New England, while out of reach for Labor, is well worth watching. The former independent member, Tony Windsor, is challenging the colourful deputy Prime Minister, Barnaby Joyce. Windsor was at one point extremely popular, however, his support for the Labor minority Government of 2010-2013 has potentially eroded some of his support. He did not stand for reelection in 2013 and Joyce moved to New England. Joyce often finds himself in the news but he may be most notable in the States for once threatening to shoot Johnny Depp’s dogs.
Similarly, Rob Oakeshott, who supported the Labor minority government of 2010-13, is aiming to return to parliament in the seat of Cowper. Polls suggest it will be a close race.
Labor performed quite strongly in Victoria back in 2013 so there are only a limited number of seats that are realistically available to take from the Liberals.
Labor have to play defence, in some cases due to retiring incumbents, in others because of a state issue with the County Fire Authority, in Bruce, McEwen, Bendigo, and Chisholm but do have opportunities in Dunkley, Deakin, Corangamite, and LaTrobe.
Indi should be held by the incumbent independent Cathy McGowan who defeated the personally unpopular Sophie Mirrabella in 2013. The Liberals have made the questionable decision to renominate Mirrabella. Polls suggest McGowan will win easily.
Melbourne should be easily held by the popular Greens representative Adam Bandt. In 2013 he recorded a strong swing to him in the teeth of a fall in the Greens vote nationally. The Greens are also competing for the seats of Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports, and Higgins; however, the Liberal party has chosen to recommend their supporters preference the Labor ahead of the Greens. This should protect sitting Labor members, though the Greens are still a strong chance in Batman, a candidate for the greatest electoral name anywhere in the world.
Labor have lost most of their Queensland seats over the past two elections, which leaves a lot of pick-up opportunities. The path to majority government will most likely need to include a good night in Queensland.
There are some suggestions that Labor looks stronger in the non-Brisbane seats of Capricornia, Leichhardt, Herbert, and Flynn than in the Brisbane seats of Petrie, Bonner, Brisbane, and Forde.
Eccentric billionaire(???) Clive Palmer will not be recontesting his Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax, so that seat reverts to a likely Coalition gain.
Bob Katter had a surprisingly close race in his outback seat of Kennedy three years ago but will probably win again this year without evidence to the contrary. Particularly given the Labor party will be recommending its supporters give him their preference vote.
Western Australia is traditionally a very tough state for Labor to compete in. However, they are currently polling rather well there and could well pick up a number of seats from the Liberal party. Particularly targetted seats are Cowan, Hasluck, and the newly created seat of Burt.
The Western Australian Nationals are, confusingly, not part of the Coalition federally and will be pushing hard in the vast rural seats of Durack and O’Connor. This could add a wrinkle if the election is very close. That said, Labor are suggesting their supporters should offer preferences to the incumbent Liberals, which should help keep the WA Nationals out of federal parliament.
South Australia has been turned upside down by popular populist Senator Nick Xenophon who is running candidates in every South Australian lower house seat. Polling suggests these candidates are likely to win at least one seat, and very possibly more. Mayo is the most likely Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) pickup, probably followed by Barker, Grey, and Sturt. You’ll notice these are all Liberal held seats. It is entirely possible that a Coalition victory nationwide could be spoiled by NXT destroying the South Australian Liberal contingent.
Labor are making a much stronger push for the seat of Hindmarsh then they are Boothby, though right now it seems they will come up short in both seats.
Tasmanian poll numbers tend to be a little less reliable than the mainland states. Right now it looks like Tasmania isn’t experiencing the same swing to Labor as the rest of the country. This could well be true, and FAME2016 assumes it is, but it is a little surprising and doesn’t mesh with seat based polling. If FAME2016 is wrong anywhere I expect it to be in Tasmania.
Polling of the territories is notoriously bad and therefore I don’t necessarily trust FAME2016 for those four seats.
The two seats in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Canberra and the newly renamed seat of Fenner, are both perpetually completely safe for the Labor party.
The current territory-level government in the Northern Territory is breathtakingly unpopular due to an absolutely epic level of incompetence and in-fighting. There is the very real possibility that they could lose every single seat at this year’s territorial elections. Surely that will affect federal voting behaviours? If so FAME2016 is probably overestimating Country Liberal Party chances.
Finally, I’ve got a handy table and pie chart to summarise FAME2016’s current seat ratings.