The House sit-in was a genuinely uplifting moment. It was an important signal of the dysfunction in that body, and the reluctance of Republicans to even allow a vote on gun safety, an issue critical to many Americans.
A week after the sit-in, Democrats have called for a national Day of Action that will include press conferences, meetings, rallies, town halls, and sit-ins in several areas across the nation. There’s no doubt that Democrats are about as united as a political party ever gets. Unfortunately, there’s still a problem across the aisle.
Support in the Democratic ranks for some new limits on the spread of firearms has essentially maxed out: Last week, 94 percent of the party's House members participated in the sit-in, while all its senators in town lined up behind a modest bill. At the same time, almost all the money and political energy against gun control has gone to the nearly as monolithic Republicans.
Despite the best efforts of Democrats, things can’t change—at least not before the election—without snagging some votes from Republicans. Fortunately, some of those Republicans are feeling serious heat. Whether or not the House sit-in will become a historic event in the sense of finally moving gun safety legislation forward may depend on the Senate. That’s because the Senate is clearly poised to swing between parties, and the Republican senators caught in the gears of that change are willing to do almost anything to stay in their chairs—including something as radical as doing what their constituents have wanted for a long time.
The genesis for a legislative breakthrough, albeit a very incremental one, is in view. (It would be the first new federal gun control law in 22 years.) Democrats have concluded that “No fly, no buy” is the most salable concept immediately available, and a growing clutch of Republicans is open to embracing the idea so long as several caveats are attached.
The modest change in the gun laws would involve looking at those on the “no fly” list and those on the much larger “watch” list in the last five years. Both groups would be subject to an increased delay in attempting to buy a firearm, and there would be an increase in the level of alarm bells that ring when someone on these lists makes a request to purchase.
Technically, people on either list would still be able to buy guns, but they’d be subject to additional scrutiny. In exchange, it would be made easier for someone on either list to request a review of their status and to get off the list. Which is, frankly, a good idea all on its own.
A symbolically important majority of 52 senators supported that package in a test vote Thursday : All 44 from the Democratic caucus who were in town plus eight Republicans, three in highly competitive races for re-election: Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania and Mark S. Kirk of Illinois.
Of course, 52 is not enough in these days of automatic silent filibuster. Whether or not the additional votes can be found may depend on what these senators and representatives hear from their constituents over the holiday. Which in turn could depend on drumming up support on the Day of Action.
The louder the voices today, the more likely the sit-in will not just be a thing that happened, but the beginning of change.
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