Swing state polls abound this week and while an NBC/Marist/WSJ poll showed Clinton up by nine points in Pennsylvania and tied with Trump in Ohio, a Quinnipiac poll also found the two tied in Ohio but gave Trump a 2-point edge in Pennsylvania and a 3-point edge in Florida. Of course, polls bounce around and the trends according to the Huffpost Pollster average of polls remain relatively stable in all three states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Not to mention the fact that Quinnipiac is projecting an even whiter electorate this year than in 2012, making the polls worthy of at least some skepticism.
If one state stood out this week, it was Colorado, where polling has been sparse. But two polls showed Clinton leading Trump by double digits: Monmouth had her up 13 and Fox News had her up by 10.
Nate Silver concludes:
“[T]he bevy of state polls worked strongly to Trump’s benefit overall. His chances of winning the Electoral College are up to 29 percent, from 23 percent on Tuesday, according to our polls-only model. And they’re now 33 percent, up from 27 percent, in our polls-plus model, which also accounts for economic conditions. [...] But the landscape also looks blurrier, and it may not be until mid-August that we have a chance to catch our breath.
Perhaps the most interesting measures of the week were those related to specific demographic groups. If Hillary Clinton is looking to recreate the Obama coalition heading into 2016, she may be on her way to doing it.
Latino voters favor Clinton over Trump by a whopping 74-16 percent, according to Latino Decisions. Meanwhile, a new GenForward poll of 18 to 30 year olds found that Trump is "wildly unpopular" with young voters. Though Clinton leads Trump with these voters 38-17 percent, 22 percent still prefer "someone else" and 16 percent are contemplating not voting. So getting them to the polls may be Clinton's key challenge. And in terms of black voters, polls uniformly show Trump sucking wind, but nowhere more so than in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where the NBC/Marist poll finds him getting ZERO percent of the black vote. That’s a striking result for any poll.
On the flip side, among demographic groups where Trump should be excelling, he's having a tougher time than expected. Here's a taste of the Allstate/Atlantic Media Heartland Monitor Poll:
The contest generated a series of sharp divisions, with Trump frequently failing to fully replicate the usual advantages the GOP enjoys among many groups. While Clinton, for instance, held a 48 percent to 28 percent edge among women, Trump led among men only 42 percent to 39 percent, less than Mitt Romney’s seven-point lead over President Obama among men in 2012. And while Clinton held a 64 percent to 13 percent advantage among nonwhite voters, Trump led among whites much more modestly: 46 percent to 34 percent. That compares with a 20-point edge for Romney among whites in the 2012 exit polls.
Trump’s lead among whites in the survey was squeezed because of his struggle among those with advanced education. In the history of polling, dating back to 1952, no Democratic presidential nominee has carried the majority of college-educated whites. But in the survey, Clinton led Trump among college-educated whites by 45 percent to 37 percent. [emphasis added]
Hang on to your hats, folks, it’s going to be a long, complicated general election polling season. But outside of any specific outcomes, the trend lines among these demographic groups are worthy of note.