Back by popular demand, here are the first looks at the Minnesota elections for the 2016 cycle! 2012 presidential and 2014 senate (Franken/McFadden) results listed on each house district, with the senate district being the sum of the 2 House seats each.
Percentages are the odds the favored candidate will win:
Tilt D/R: 50.1%-60%
Lean D/R: 60.1-75%
Likely D/R: 75.1-99%
Safe D/R: <99%
Districts 1-28 are considered “Outstate” Minnesota, and are outside of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area
District 1: Northwest Minnesota. This used to be a Democratic district, but has shifted right in recent cycles. In 2008 both house seats were held by the DFL and in 2010 they were won by Republicans. The senate seat has been held by Leroy Stumpf (D) since before I was born, but with his 2016 retirement, the seat is possibly to be lost to Republicans this cycle. Republicans endorsed attorney Mark Johnson, but after the endorsement convention former Thief River Falls City Councilman Edwin Dale Hahn jump in for the August primary. Hahn was apparently oblivious to the fact that there were caucuses and deadlines that he had missed, which doesn’t lend me to believe he will be able to beat Johnson in the primary. The Democrats also have a primary in August, but this seems more of a formality than on the GOP side. 2014 Republican House primary candidate Jual Carlson filed as a Democrat this time, after losing the GOP endorsement to Johnson this spring. But he will struggle to break double digits against actual Democrat, and endorsee, Kip Fontaine, the head public defender in Pennington County. Unless Fontaine has some magic up his sleeve (which is possible in such a parochial rural district), it looks like Johnson will take the seat for Red Team. District 1A has 3rd term incumbent Dan Fabian was first elected in 2010, and has entrenched himself already. He was not seriously challenged in 2012 or 2014, and is facing token opposition in DFLer George Nyakasi Bass. Fabian looks a lock to return to St. Paul for another 2 years. The Roseau area is fully owned by Polaris, and is certainly the more Republican of the two House districts, with Fabian having quite the rapport with aforementioned vehicle manufacturer. Over in 1B, Deb Kiel has not given off quite as good of an impression locally as Fabian has, and 1B is a lot less Republican friendly than 1A. 1B is centered around Theif River Falls, and is essentially a wholely owned subsidiary of Arctic Cat (Yes, both major American snowmobile/ATV manufacturer’s are in the same Senate district in the middle-of-nowhere-Minnesota). Keil was challenged pretty hard in her first reelection bid in 2012, but won 52-48. To challenge Kiel this cycle there are 2 Democrats running for the primary, DFL endorsed Mike Moore, and local retired nursing home manager Erv Rud. Rud didn’t enter the race until the filing deadline, well after Moore got the endorsement, and I don’t expect him to be all that competitive in the primary. I suspect I give Kiel a slight edge in the general election, but this is a seat that could flip if there is a GOP wipeout statewide.
Senate
Likely R
House A
Romney (R) 54-43
McFadden (R) 49-47
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 52-46
Franken (D) 49-45
Lean R
District 2: The senate seat has been held by Rod Skoe since the 1998 election, and is running for reelection again. Skoe faces a decent challenger in appointed Park Rapids city councilman Paul Utke. Utke also serves as the Hubbard County GOP Chairman. Skoe will likely hold his seat this cycle, but is not a shoo-in following his 55% against another serious challenger in 2012. District 2A is essentially the half of the Bemidji area that is in MN-7, the Red Lake Indian Reservation, and Lake of the Woods. This seat has changed hands multiple times in the last few cycles, with Democrat Roger Erickson alternating winning in 08, and 12, with Republican David Hancock winning in 10 and 14. Hancock is choosing to not run for reelection 0 2016, leaving the seat open. Oddly, Erickson lost the DFL endorsement this year to navy veteran Jerry Loud. Loud is a political neophyte won the endorsement largely based on him being a member of the Red Lake Nation tribe, and their disproportionate presence in the district’s DFL primary voters. Democrats that endorsed Loud perhaps are kicking themselves now, as 30 year old spousal abuse court records are coming to light now, putting this seat at risk of staying in Republican hands this cycle. Tasked with keeping this district in Republican hands is another political newcomer, retired sheriff’s deputy Matt Grossell. Based on the abuse records coming out, I’ll give the slight edge to Grossell here. Directly to the south of 2A is the more GOP friendly 2B with Park Rapids at its core. Republican Steve Green won this redrawn seat in 2012 and has held it since. Green will be facing DFL farmer Bryan Klabunde. Klabunde is not going to be more than a speed bump to Green.
Senate
Likely D
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Franken (D) 49-47
Tilt R
House B
Romney (R) 56-42
McFadden (R) 50-44
Safe R
District 3: Welcome to the northern side of the Iron Range and the BWCA: Home to Senate Majority Leader Tom Bakk. Bakk, along with long-term incumbent Mary Murphy and 2015 Special election winner Rock Ecklund (Both DFL) should win by their customary landslides against token opposition all.
Senate
Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Franken (D) 59-37
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Franken (D) 61-36
Safe D
District 4: This is essentially Moorhead and surrounding area. Senator Kent Eken (D) is running for reelection to the senate after previously serving in the House. Republicans nominated recent (~18 months ago) transplant to the state James Lieman, an army veteran with no ties to the state, let alone this corner of outstate Minnesota prior to 2014. Eken should cruise to reelection. The city of Moorhead more or less makes up the 4A half of the district, and is represented by Ben Lien, who succeeded Eken in this district 4 years ago. Lien is running for his 3rd term against 20-year-old college student Republican Jordan Idso. Idso filed on the last day to do so, and has been unreachable by the media in the subsequent weeks. All signs point to the fact he won’t be running much, or any campaign. Eken can rest easy. In the more Republican (rural areas around Moorhead) 4B Paul Marquart (DFL) looks to lock in his 9th term in the House (He won by a margin of 25 points in Republican wave of 2010, and by 30 in the redrawn district in 2012, and 32 points later in 2014. Republicans are running a seemingly serious candidate against Marquart with Becker County Commissioner Ben Grimsley. This sounds all well and good, except this is the same Ben Grimsely that lost by 25 to Marquart in 2010. Marquart is a famously tireless campaigner, and is one of the most personable politicians you’ll ever meet. Marquart is at the top of the list when it comes to strongest DFLers to run to succeed Peterson when Peterson hangs it up. Expect another 25-30 point blowout for Marquart.
Senate
Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Franken (D) 59-37
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Franken (D) 52-43
Safe D
District 5: The amalgam district: 5B is very much an Iron Range district, and 5A is decisively not. I hold this district near and dear to my heart, as I have a lot of family and friends here. This district is one of the 3 or 4 I know better than any political subdivision anywhere, and it stretches from Bemidji on the west, and Grand Rapids and western Itasca County in the east. Alright, that’s enough about me and my sentiment for this district. In the 2012 redistricting, this district had all sorts of people watching, as 6 incumbents were mashed up into the district, 3 Republicans and 3 Democrats, so the senate race, and both house races saw incumbent vs. incumbent showdowns. Democrats swept the races in the end, with ease that surprised even me. Those Democrats all won reelection 2 years later in 2014 and are all up for reelection again this year. State Senator Tom Saxhaug (D) has represented the Grand Rapids area since his first election in 2002. This year there is a primary on the GOP side to take him on. The most likely candidate to come out of the primary is losing 2014 5B GOP candidate Justin Eichorn. Eichorn lost to Anzelc 57-43 last cycle. Eichorn first has to go through a primary against Pedie Peterson, who first filed as a primary challenger against Saxhaug, only to change parties 2 days later. I expect Eichorn to prevail in the primary, and lost in November. In 5A incumbent DFL Representative John Persell faces resort owner Matt Bliss. After Persell won an uphill battle in his incumbent-vs.-incumbent battle in 2012, I won’t be betting against him anytime soon. In 5B we reenter the Iron Range from the west, home of 4-term incumbent Tom Anzelc, who is running for reelection in his Grand Rapids area district, plus a portion of blood-red Cass County. Republicans are gunning for this seat after recruiting former Pawlenty era IRRRB (a cabinet level department in the state) commissioner Sandy Layman. A lot of the top operatives in the state are being assigned tasks involving this race, and I expect it to be a much more expensive and close race than we are used to seeing in the quiet mill/mining town of Grand Rapids. Still, this has always been tough country for a Republican, but not out of the realm of possibility with the Cass County portion having always been a Republican source of votes. The other quirk here is that this is the only legislative race in the entire state to have a Green Party candidate on the ballot, which could hurt Anzelc in a razor thin race if it comes down to that.
Senate
Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 51-46
Franken (D) 52-43
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 49-48
Franken (D) 53-43
Lean D
District 6: Heart of the Iron Range: heavily DFL turf. Incumbent State Senator David Tomassoni is running for reelection and should have an easy go of it against 31-year-old Army Reservist Skeeter Tomczak (real name). I’ve never met Tomczak, but I know quite a few people that do, as he and I are the same age, graduating the same year. Tomczak has a reputation of being a bit of a Dudley Do-Right, which apparently has followed him from childhood to his military career. I just don’t see Tomassoni being at risk in a D+12 district that is ancestrally More Democratic downballot. In 5A 31-year old incumbent DFL Representative Carly Melin (yet another 2003 Iron Range graduate) is not seeking reelection in 6A for personal reasons. The race to succeed Melin is an absolute mess. 4 DFL candidates are moving forward to the August primary after no one got the 60% required at the convention to get the endorsement. Rick Nolan’s district manager Tom Whiteside, Nashwauk mayor Ben DeNucci, teacher Julie Sandstede and businessman Mike Thompson are all moving forward. The establishment-backed Whiteside got a majority of the vote, but couldn’t get to the magic 60%, and is likely the favorite in the primary. DeNucci is probably second most likely, but comes from an awkward corner of the district in a different county than the bulk of the district. Sandstede is has gotten some momentum as a pro-life woman (the only woman in the race), and has the backing of the Steelworkers Union, but doesn’t seem to have sufficient support to win a primary, but strange things can happen in a 4-way FPTP primary. Thompson is a Some Dude, and likely will finish in low single digits in August. Waiting for the eventual winner is teacher Rob Farnsworth (R) in November. The primary is messy to be sure, but this district is so incredibly blue that Farnsworth has no shot. Over in 6B, Melin’s former campaign manager, and current Representative in his own right Jason Metsa is seeking reelection in his own seat against perennial candidate Matt Matasich. He has previously been seen losing to Metsa 65-35 in 2014, and losing to Senator Dave Tomassoni in 2010 70-30. Safe D regardless, but good for Matasich for not letting the seats go perpetually unopposed, I guess.
Senate
Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 63-34
Franken (D) 65-31
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 62-36
Franken (D) 61-34
Safe D
District 7: Duluth. Duluth is a mini-San Francisco on the shore of Lake Superior, as well as the hub and port of the Iron Range. State Senator Roger Reinert is stepping down after just 6 years in office, and State Representative Erik Simonson is stepping in to fill the seat in his stead. Simonson faces retired Lt Colonel USMC Donna Bergman, who was unopposed as the Republican nominee. Simonson will win handily. In 7A we have an interesting story with Republican candidate Dylan Raddant. Raddant works in retail, and is a transgender woman. To my knowledge Raddant is the first transgender candidate in Minnesota history, and almost certainly the first Republican transgender candidate. This won’t matter in November as incumbent DFL Representative Jennifer Schultz will win in a landslide in this deep blue district. In 7B, there is a DFL primary to replace the aforementioned Erik Simonson who is vacating this deep blue seat. Local Democrats endorsed liberal activist Liz Olson for the seat. Olson faces Some Dude Bryan Jensen in the primary, which really is just a formality. On the Republican side pilot Cody Barringer is running. Olson is effectively Representative-elect at this point.
Senate
Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 67-30
Franken (D) 69-28
Safe D
House B
Obama (D) 70-28
Franken (D) 70-27
Safe D
District 8: This is blood red farm territory in NW Minnesota, so much so that Amy Klobuchar lost this district in 2006. That really does sum up the political leanings of Ottertail and Douglas Counties. State Senator Bill Ingerbritsen will handily beat archaeologist Shawn Olson. In 8A, long time GOP Representative Bud Nornes is assured a spot back in St. Paul again for a an 11th term against restaurateur CJ Holl. This entire area should be safely Republican; however, district 8B is the home of one Mary Franson. Franson is a famously loud candidate that nearly lost her district, which is one of the most heavily Republican in the entire state in 2012. After a recount, she ended up winning by 12 votes against high school football coach Bob Cunniff. She did a little better in 2014 with the Red Wave, but she is inherently a weak candidate. She is facing social worker Gail Kulp, but her opponent is relatively unimportant. Any other Republican would be safe in this district, but it’s on the radar due to the unique weakness Franson has as a candidate.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
McFadden (R) 53-42
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 58-40
McFadden (R) 52-44
Likely R
District 9: This is an agricultural and summer cabin district north of St. Cloud and west of Brainerd that was not-so-long-ago competitive for Democrats, but I think those days are now behind us now. Incumbent GOP Senator Paul Gazelka looks secure against a Some Dude Democratic challenger, Jason Weinerman. Sophomore GOP Representative Mark Anderson is retiring because he doesn’t like politics. Stepping in to fill Anderson’s spot in St. Paul is Lake Shore mayor John Poston (R). The field was cleared immediately for him, and he should be easily elected in November against county DFL Chair and charter school principal Megg Litts. In 9B, sophomore incumbent Republican Ron Kresha will easily win against University of Minnesota (120 miles away from the district) student Dustin Simmonds in November.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 60-37
McFadden (R) 54-41
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R
District 10: This north central Minnesota seat has seen a lot of action politically for being such a sleepy area culturally. In 2012 there was a costly Senate election and House election in 10B, and in 2014 there were two costly House elections. Republicans scored 2 major victories with the help of the red wave in 2014. Now those freshman incumbents are up for reelection. Senator Carrie Ruud (R) is known as a socially conservative firebrand, and is up for reelection after winning her seat in 2012. Local DFLers worked hard to pressure former Rep Joe Ward into this race, or to run for his old seat, but he declined both positions in favor of staying retired. Ruud didn’t get a terribly strong challenger, but she will be running against accountant Tiffant Stenglein. If things look grim for Republicans later in the cycle, this could be a potential wave seat, but as of now Ruud, in spite of her controversies, is unquestionably favored. 10A, which consists mostly of Brainerd with some of western Crow Wing County in there as well, is the more Republican of the two districts. Freshman GOP Rep. Josh Heintzman was the man that beat Joe Ward last cycle, and is running for reelection for the first time in 2016. Unlike the recruiting failure in SD-10, the recruitment in 10A got the second best option behind a Ward rematch by getting Baxter City Councilman Quinn Nystrom. Nystrom is considered a quickly rising star in DFL circles, having won election to the at-large city council of strongly Republican Baxter Minnesota against a strong headwind at only 28 years old. Now at age 30 she is considered one of the foremost advocates against human trafficking, as well as diabetes research in the state. I am personally bullish on her chances, but I’ve had many people saying not to sleep on her this cycle. I’ll leave it as Lean Heintzman as of now, but Nystrom seems to be one to watch. In 2014 Republicans were able to unseat another then-rising-star in 10B: Joe Radinovich. Dale Lueck won the hotly contested Aitkin County based seat 52-48, and is now running for reelection. Lueck didn’t draw a strong challenger, but 10B is to the left of 10A, and the area will be saturated with political ads due to contested legislative and congressional elections in the area. Lueck faces teacher Erin Wagner in November. I am torn between Lean and Likely R on this seat, and I could easily see the district switching between them in the near future.
Senate
Likely R
House A
Romney (R) 55-43
McFadden (R) 52-44
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 53-44
Franken (D) 48.3-47.6
Lean R
District 11: This district is based south of Duluth. The northern part of the district has a decidedly Iron Range flavor, and the southern portion is North Woods, but no Iron Range (picture the Venn diagram). The DFL is absolutely dominant in Carlton County to the north, and has a fair presence in the southern part of this district as well. DFL incumbent Senator Toney Lourey is running for reelection to his district, which his mother held before him. Lourey is facing Republican Mike Cummins. Cummins was last seen losing this seat to Lourey in 2010 55-45, and before that in 2008 losing to Jim Oberstar in MN-8 68-32. In 11A, DFL incumbent Mike Sundin (DFL) will easily win a 3rd term against Some Dude Republican Mike Line. In 11B, incumbent GOP freshman Jason Rarick is running in this swingy rural district against Kanebec County Planning Commissioner Tom Jones (DFL). The race is yet undeveloped, and will likely blow with the political wind. Right now I give the edge to Rarick based on incumbency alone.
Senate
Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 62-36
Franken (D) 62-33
Safe D
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Franken (D) 50-45
Tilt R
District 12: This is old school Farmer Labor country, specifically from the Farmer faction. This is Peterson country, with sugar beets, corn, and soybeans as far as the eyes can see. This is one area that the DFL prospects dim as time goes on. Politics isn’t a zero sum game, but as the DFL gains in some of the suburbs, the “F” faction of the DFL is dying off. This is also home of Senator Torrey Westrom, who unsuccessfully challenged Collin Peterson for the MN-7 seat in 2014. Westrom is up for reelection this cycle, and is a prohibitive favorite against local teacher Russ Hinrich. Westrom’s personal popularity and compelling personal story puts this reddening former DFL stronghold seat out of reach for Team Blue. In 12A, Representative Jay McNamar (DFL) lost his seat 52-48 against now-freshman GOP Representative Jeff Backer, and the district hasn’t gotten bluer in the last few years. McNamar is running for his old seat, and is a solid recruit for Democrats. But with the trending of this seat, I think it’ll be bit too much for McNamar to make a return trip to St. Paul. But in a wave, this seat will almost certainly flip back. 12B is substantially more Republican than 12A, and incumbent Paul Anderson (R) hasn’t drawn any challenger at all, and is unopposed in November.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 52-46
Franken (D) 51-44
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 62-36
McFadden (R) 53-42
Safe R
District 13: This is more farm county surrounding St. Cloud, and is generally quite Republican, but has gone to the right Democrats now and then, such as former State Representative Larry Hosch. I don’t see another Hosch in this cycle. 20-year incumbent State Senator Michelle Fischbach will steamroll Some Dude Mike Willemsen in her reelection bid. Sophomore representative Republican Jeff Howe should win 13A again comfortably against either of the two anonymous Democrats facing off in the August primary: Jane Leitzman or Anne Buckvold. Next door in 13B, Republican incumbent Tim O’Driscoll did not get a challenger in 2014, but drew a Some Dude level challenger in Matt Crouse.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 57-41
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 57-41
McFadden (R) 52-44
Safe R
District 14: This district is a dot of purple in a sea of red, consisting of St. Cloud and the immediate surrounding area. The district used to be represented by DFL Senator Terryl Clark, who most famously ran against Michelle Bachman in 2010 (she lost the general), and then immediately changed districts to run against Chip Cravaack 2 yearas later (she lost the primary). After Clark left the seat, it has been represented by Republican incumbent John Pederson. Pederson is choosing not to run for reelection after 6 years in St. Paul, leaving this swing seat open once again. Republicans nominated retired attorney Jerry Relph without need for a primary. Democrats nominated their 2014 candidate for 14A, which is the slightly more Republican currently but ancestrally even more Republican half of the district, Dan Wolgamott. This is going to be a very close and hotly contested race, as this is an EVEN PVI open seat. I’d even go so far as to say that whichever party wins this senate seat, will likely be the party that controls the senate in 2017. I give the edge, in the slightest possible manner to Wolgamott, based on prior campaign experience, and a prediction that Democrats win more votes in the state than Republicans statewide. And in the event of a razor thin race, the Libertarians are running one of their only candidates in this race, conspiracy theorist Steven Zilberg, who could pull a few votes away from Relph. In 14A, Wolgomott’s 2014 opponent incumbent Tama Theis (R) is running for reelection against college professor Aric Putnam. Theis has proven to be a formidable opponent, and this half of district 14 is more Republican turf than 14B, so I give the solid but not insurmountable edge to Theis. District 14B has seen perhaps the wildest swings of any House district in the state. This is largely due to the fact that St. Cloud State University, with its 15,000 students, makes up a large portion of this district, and they tend to have precipitous dropoff in off-year elections. In 2012 DFL candidate Zach Horholt unseated a long-tenured incumbent Republican that was not considered on the hot seat by an eye-popping 13 point margins. 2 years later, former State Representative Jim Knoblach came out of retirement and edged Dorholt by 69 votes. I was a little surprised that Knoblach didn’t jump into the senate race, as it would have been in more favorable turf than running for reeletion in a rematch. With University turnout, and not facing the immense Red Wave, I expect Dorholt to win the rematch by a couple points.
Senate
Tilt D
House A
Romney (R) 50-48
Fanken (D) 50-46
Lean R
House B
Obama (D) 53-43
Franken (D) 54-41
Lean D
District 15: This is a fairly Republican area east of St. Cloud, with the Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe reservation in 15A. In the senate race, 6-year incumbent GOP Senator Dave Brown is choosing to retire instead of standing for reelection this year. At the convention, the local GOP gave 28-year-old Tom Emmer staffer Andrew Mathews to fill Brown’s seat. Mathews faces farmer Dan Whitcomb in the primary, but Mathews is expected to prevail easily. The Democrats also have a primary for this open seat, the DFL-endorsed candidate legislative Staffer and Mille Lacs Band of Ojibwe member Chilah Brown faces off against Some Dude Rob Passons. Brown will win the primary handily. In November, Mathews has a strong field advantage over Brown, and should win easily. Incumbent 15A GOP representative Sondra Erickson drew only a token Democrat in teacher Kent Lestrud, but before she gets there she has to vanquish token Republican primary opponent: Navy veteran Tom Heinks. In the more conservative 15B, sophomore GOP incumbent Jim Newberger looks to an easy reelection campaign against DFL farmer Karla Scapanski.
Senate
Likely R
House A
Romney (R) 55-42
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 63-35
McFadden (R) 57-38
Safe R
District 16: This is basically a southern bank Minnesota River Valley district. All Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and shouldn’t have much difficulty. Senator Gary Dahms is facing twice-vanquished 16B Dem nominee James Kanne. 16A is not as ancestrally DFL as the northern bank of the Minnesota. 16A is represented by 3rd term Republican Chris Swedzinski, who is not in danger of losing in 2016. Representative Swedzinski faces another two-time-loser in November: Al Kruse. Downstream from 16A on the Minnesota River lies the more Republican 16B. Paul Torkelson (R) lives here, and has represented the area since being first elected in 2008. He faces DFL newcomer Austin Grossenberg, but the general election is a formality, as Torkelson will win handily.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
Franekn (D) 49-47
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 57-40
McFadden (R) 50-45
Safe R
District 17: We cross the river to the north side of the Minnesota River here. This is substantially more DFL leaning than the southern bank, even if not fully reflected in presidential PVI. I had my questions about the senate race in 2012, but Lyle Koenen won the incumbent vs. incumbent matchup with GOP senator Joe Gimse fairly handily, so the old loyalties aren’t dead here yet, even with the clean sweep the GOP pulled off here in 2014. Koenen is running for a 2nd senate term against Republican Andrew Lang, the Renville County Parks Supervisor. Lang does not seem especially strong, but with this turf moving more and more Republican every cycle, it isn’t safe for Koenen either. As far as the 2016 House races go, 33 year-old former 3-term Rep. Andrew Falk (DFL) is running for for his old seat against freshman GOP Representative Tim Miller. This will be the rubber match between Falk and Miller following Falk’s victory over Miller in 2012, and Miller’s win in 2014. Falk made a major error last cycle by sitting on a massive warchest as the signs of a Republican wave, and was caught flat-footed in the process. It may not have been enough to hang on in such a hostile climate, but it would have kept Miller from an embarrassing 10-point loss. I give the advantage of incumbency here, as the territory is more Republican every year, but this will be a tightly contested race. In 17B former DFL Representative, Mary Sawatzky is also running for a rematch against the man that unseated her last cycle. Sawatzky won a narrow plurality election against incumbent GOP representative Bruce Vogel in 2012 before her 206 vote loss to now-Representative Dave Baker last cycle. This is another seat that will be highly contested all the way to November. Baker has personal wealth, but both parties are investing resources here in anticipation of a close race. I shy away from Toss-up rankings, as I find them cowardly, but I give the smallest edge to Baker solely based on incumbency.
Senate
Likely D
House A
Romney (R) 51-47
Franken (D) 51-44
Lean R
House B
Romney (R) 51-47
Franken (D) 50-46
Tilt R
District 18: This is where the exurbs meet the cornfields. This is prime Republican territory. All 3 Republican incumbents are running for reelection, and will win easily. 2-term incumbent Senator Scott Newman faces a respectable candidate in Meeker County Commissioner Amy Wilde (D). Wilde is a good recruit for Team Blue, and she will do as well as any Democrat could there, but that will still end up in a decisive loss. In 18A, long-term incumbent Dean Urdahl (R) is running for his 8th term, and is a 100% lock for it, as he has no opponent. In 18B, incumbent Republican representative Glen Gruenhagen faces a former 1-term DFL Representative (Circa 1992) Darrel Mosel. In spite of having served nearly 25 years ago, Mosel is only 60. This area is just not as Democratic as it was in the early 1990s, and it was pretty Republican even then.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
McFadden (R) 51-43
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 60-37
McFadden (R) 52-42
Safe R
District 19: This is essentially Mankato and Nicollet County in south-central Minnesota, and is pretty blue turf. Incumbent Senator Kathy Sheran (D) is not seeking reelection after a decade in office. The DFL establishment quickly rallied behind Mankato laywer Frentz in this Democratic leaning seat. Republicans are running realtor and horse breeder Willa Dailey in an attempt to wrest the seat away from Democrats. Neither Frentz nor Dailey have run for office before, but at 55% Obama, Frentz has the clear edge. The Libertarians are running their strongest candidate in the state here as well: Doctor Shane Wernsing, a local physician. I expect Wernshing to pull a couple points from Dailey, giving a small cushion for Frentz. Incumbent 19A Representative Clark Johnson (D) is running for reelection against his 2014 opponent Kim Spears. Johnson defeated Spears by 8 last cycle in the face of a massive GOP wave. I don’t see Spears winning the rematch either. In 19B, which is effectively Mankato proper, freshman incumbent DFLer Jack Considine, a former Mankato city councilman, is running for a 2nd term. He will be facing recent Mankato transplant Adam Isakson, a 27-year old National Guard officer. I don’t see this as anything but safe for Considine.
Senate
Likely D
House A
Obama (D) 52-45
Franken (D) 55-40
Likely D
House B
Obama (D) 57-40
Franken (D) 58-37
Safe D
District 20. The northern portion of this district is some far flung exurbs(A), and the southern part (B) is actually DFL leaning farmland and the liberal college town of Northfield, former home of Senator Paul Wellstone. Incumbent DFL Senator Kevin Dahle is running for reelection this cycle against GOP realtor Rich Draheim. Dahle won elections in this seat in a 2008 special election and again in 2012, while he lost it in 2010. This will be a close race, but I give the edge to Dahle against his politically inexperienced opponent in this swingy south-central Minnesota seat. Freshman GOP incumbent Bob Vogel is in his first reelection camapgin in 2016. Heis a long time bank executive, and presumably has plenty of money to throw around here. He has not needed to self fund in this 58-40 Romney district however. Vogel will run against and beat DFL Some Dude Jim Connelly. In 20B, David Bly (DFL) has settled into his 2012 redrawn blue district, after serving 2 terms in a purpler district previously. Bly, a former teacher, will face Republican firefighter Aramis Wells. Wells has never run for political office before, and does not seem to be a threat to Bly in the least.
Senate
Tilt D
House A
Romney (R) 58-40
McFadden (R) 54-42
Safe R
House B
Obama (D) 54-44
Franken (D) 57-39
Safe D
District 21: This is very marginal territory overall that essentially covers the SE corner of Kline’s district along the Mississippi river. I was actually kind of surprised when Obama came within 3 points of Romeny, as I figured this would be a 55/45 R area, as it had been previously. Either way, it has gotten bluer, though at a slower pace than the rest of MN-2, and is pretty swingy now. Freshman incumbent DFL Senator Matt Schmit faces a strong Republican challenger in nuclear powerplant engineer Mike Goggin. My Republican friends tell me to keep an eye on him, so this race has my attention. Until proven though, I give the edge to the incumbent. Rep Tim Kelly (R-21A) is retiring after 8 years from his 51% Obama seat and both parties are gunning for it hard. Democrats have settled on Harvard-educated lawyer and 8-year incumbent Redwing city councilwoman Lisa Bailey. Republicans have lined up behind businesswoman Barb Haley. Haley is presumably rich, as she is a former mid-level executive with AT&T, and could potentially self-fund her campaign. This is going to be a high dollar race with lots of outside interest being put into it. Without the crutch of a Toss-up rating, I will go ever so slightly with the lean of the district, as there are comparably strong candidates in place. In the more Republican 21B, incumbent Steve Drazkowski (R) is running for his 5th full term, after winning a special election victory for his seat upon the resignation of Steve Sviggum (R) in early 2007. Drazkowski has drawn 26-year-old DFL staffer Elise Diesslin as a challenger. The incumbent will romp handily.
Senate
Lean D
House A
Obama (D) 51-47
Franken (D) 51-44
Tilt D
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
McFadden (R) 50-44
Safe R (Safe R)
District 22: This is the southwest corner of the state, and full of corn fields. Once able to be won by Democrats, the area is now very Republican, and contains the only 2 counties in the entire state Amy Klouchar lost in 2012: Rock and Pipestone. Freshman GOP Senator Bill Weber doesn’t have much to fear against his Some Dude opponent, Brian Abrahamson. 28 year-old Joe Schomacker (R-22A) first won this seat 6 months after returning to Minnesota after getting his MPA from George Washington University at age 24 in 2010. Now age 30, he drew another Some Dude(tte) challenger in Laura Woods this year, but that’s just a formality, as he will win 60-40. Next door in 22B, Rod Hamilton, first elected in 2004, is equally assured of a 7th term against his own Some Dude DFL challenger Kirby Kruse.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 56-41
McFadden (R) 51-51
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 54-44
McFadden (R) 48-45
Safe R
District 23: This is the south-central Minnesota district along the Iowa border. The Senate district has 14 year incumbent GOP Senator Julie Rosen against the winner of the DFL primary between Barbara Lake and John Lillis. Neither DFLer has much of a political resume, nor campaign presence. Rosen will defeat either, handily. 23A will again reelect Bob Gunther (R) to another term in St. Paul, this time against Nurse Pat Bacon. Gunther has not been challenged seriously in over 20 years, and is not in any danger this round either against Some Dude DFLer Zac Huntley. Gun advocate representative Tony Cornish (R-23B) did not have an opponent in either 2012 or 2014, but he garnered a serious candidate in St. James city councilman John Haseman. Haseman is a large underdog here, but the areas around Mankato are growing, and trending blue, while the rest of the bright red seat is atrophying population. I am teetering between Likely and Safe R here, but given the fact that Cornish hasn’t run an election campaign at all, he may get caught flat footed in this seat that Franken won by 5 last cycle.
Senate
Safe R
House A
Romney (R) 59-39
McFadden (R) 52-43
Safe R
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Franken (D) 50-45
Likely R
District 24: This is a locally swingy area around Owatana in southern Minnesota that is more Republican upballot. Unlike a lot of other farm areas, this one isn’t really moving right, as Owatana has long been a Republican bastion. It has actually started to move left downballot while the top of the ticket has stayed marginally Republican, making it quite unique in terms of political trends. DFLer Vicki Jensen won the open senate seat in 2012 when Paulite Senator Mike Perry chose to take a shot at Walz in MN-1, losing the nomination to Quist. Jensen faces a token primary challenger in Rich Bailey, which will be a lopsided victory for Jenson. In November, Jensen will face John Jasinski, the mayor of Fairbault Minnesota, the second largest city in the district. This 51% Romney district will be a highly contested race come November. As in general, I give the starting edge to the incumbent in lieu of compelling reason to do otherwise, though only just. In the more Republican 24A, sophomore GOP representative John Petersburg is running for a third term, and will face his 2014 opponent Bev Cashman. Cashman managed to put together a respectable 10 point defeat in spite of 2014’s bloodbath of Democrats in outstate Minnesota. I don’t think she wins this cycle, but I expect a single-digit race, which keeps the rating out of Safe R territory. In 24B we have another rematch, this time between former State Rep Patti Fritz (D) and the man who unseated her by 221 votes in 2014, incumbent State Rep Brian Daniels (R). Daniels is the brother of 29A State Representative Marion O’Niell. This is going to be another tightly contested race with lots of outside money and staffers. Democrats see this as a must-win to retake the Chamber, and Republicans see this as a line in the sand to keep a seat at the table in St. Paul. As always this early, slight edge to the incumbent, but it’ll be close.
Senate
Tilt D
House A
Romney (R) 52-45
McFadden (R) 49-47
Likely R
House B
Romney (R) 50-47
Franken (D) 50-45
Tilt R
Districts 25 and 26. I do this together, as they are essentially mirror images of each other. 25B and 26A are Rochester, and have gone from a Republican bastion to a DFL stronghold in just a few short years. This used to be the land of Republicans like Gil Gutknecht, but those days have passed as the Mayo Clinic has exploded and more educated liberals move to the area for work. Republicans showed signs of life in 2014 for the first time in a decade, but we will see if that was a last throe, or a comeback. 25A and 26B are the surrounding areas around Rochester, and are currently Republican seats, as they have not seen the influx that Rochester proper has. Both senate seats are currently held by Republican senators, but Democrats are challenging them both. Longtime mainstream GOP Senator David Senjem, the man who was temporarily assigned with getting a hold of the GOP caucus following the troubles the party faces in 2011-2012 holds SD25. Senjem has the easier race of the 2 GOP Senators, as he is more tenured, and is facing a former DFL staffer Dale Amorosia in the more Republican SD25. It is an Obama Franken district, but Senjem is an institution, and is likely to win reelection. In SD26, Carla Nelson (R) is running for reelection against well-connect local attorney and 2014 HD-26B candidate Rich Wright. Wright has a stronger resume, better campaign skills, running against a less tenured incumbent, and is running in the bluer district. I still give the edge to the incumbent Senator, but this will be a close race to watch, and if any type of blue wave starts to appear, this seat will almost surely flip. 25A GOP Representative Duane Quam didn’t get a challenger last cycle in what was perhaps the greatest recruiting failure by the DFL last cycle, particularly as Quam had a highly contested election in 2012. This cycle he faces recently retired teacher Linda Walbruch, who stepped down after teaching at the same school for 40 years to run for political office. Quam is a strong favorite here, as Walbruch doesn’t have any political experience or notable connections, even though she has racked up her fair share of liberal endorsements. In 25B, DFL incumbent Kim Norton is retiring, leaving her 53% Obama seat open. The DFL has settled on retired businessman Duane Sauke. Republicans have settled on former State Representative Fran Bradley, who represented this district from 1994-2006, when he was replaced by the aforementioned Kim Norton. Norton held Bradey to a 300 point win in 2004, before scaring him out of the race the next cycle, which won in the blue wave that year. This district is a lot different than it was in 2004 when Bradley was last elected, but I am going to give him the slightest edge based on name recognition and political experience. In 26A we have DFL incumbent Tina Liebling facing Republican 22-year-old grocery store clerk Will Wagonner. Liebing beat a much more credible Republican in 2014 by double digits, and I expect a much larger margin for her this cycle. Freshman GOP Representative Nels Pierson is running for reelection for the first time, against John Austinson, a local high school teacher and football coach. Pierson dispatched a much stronger Democrat last cycle, and will win by a landslide margin this year.
Senate
Likely R
House 25A
Romney (R) 52-45
McFadden (R) 51-44
Likely R
House 25B
Obama (D) 53-44
Franken (D) 52-44
Tilt R
Senate
Tilt D
House 25A
Obama (D) 57-40
Franken (D) 56-39
Safe D
House 26B
Romney (R) 53-44
McFadden (R) 51-44
Safe R
Districts 27. This area is fairly strong DFL cornfields along the Iowa border, akin to neighboring IA-1 to the south. 27A is more or less Albert Lea/ Freeborn County, and 27B is more or less Austin/Mower County. In the senate seat, incumbent DFL Senator Dan Sparks is looking for 4 more years in St. Paul, after being first elected to this seat back in 2002. He only garnered token opposition in either Cynthia Gail or Gene Dornink, who will be facing off in a primary on 8/9. Sparks will beat either, handily. In 27A, this seat has flipped back and forth for a few cycles now, with Republicans winning midterms and Democrats winning in presidential terms going all the way back to 2008. Incumbent Republican Peggy Bennett won what I thought to be the most stunning margin of election night, unseating then-incumbent Shannon Savick 53-40. There was a strong liberal Independence candaidate that cycle, which won’t be happening this year. Savick, who got caught flat footed and broke in her 2014 campaign is not running again this cycle. Democrats instead look to college administrator Gary Schindler to carry the banner for Team Blue in this 55% Obama seat. I struggle labeling this seat as going towards Bennett again given the fact that Franken and Obama both carried it by double digits, and Savick was a uniquely terrible politician. Gary Schindler is no white knight, but I the fundamentals of this election are just too strong in his favor for me to call it anything other than a slight favorite to unseat the incumbent. 27B incumbent Democratic Representative Jeanne Poppe has represented her 60% Obama district for over a decade. She has drawn a retired Republican businessman opponent in the form of Dennis Schminke for the second cycle in a row. Schminke actually seemed to be a decent candidate, having only lost this seat 54-46 in 2014. Still, Poppe is not going anywhere, as outperforming the top of the ticket by 5 points won’t win here in a presidential cycle.
Senate
Safe D
House A
Obama (D) 55-42
Franken (D) 54-41
Tilt D
House B
Obama (D) 60-38
Franken (D) 56-39
Likely D
District 28: This is the southeastern corner of the state along the Iowa/Wisconsin border and the Mississippi river around and south of the college town of Winona. The northern part around Winona is generally a solidly DFL area, while the southern 28B is more swingy with an EVEN PVI. Interestingly, this is home to GOP Senator Jeremy Miller, the scion of a local Republican family. Miller is up for reelection this cycle against 2014 28B DFL candidate Jon Pieper, a local businessman who had a respectable showing against Greg Davids. Until further notice, I consider Miller to be an enigma, outside of the rules that bind other politicians, as he has defied logic during his entire political career. Until I see it on an election day that Miller has lost, I consider him unbeatable. Gene Pelowski (DFL) has represented the Winona area in the House of Representatives since his first election in 1986, and has not been challenged seriously in decades. Pelowski is running against the man he defeated in 2012, Adam Pace. Pelowski won that race 67-33, which should be the over/under for this rematch. In 28B there is Republican incumbent Greg Davids, who has represented this area more or less since 1991. He did lose for a single term in 2006, but won against the man who defeated him, Ken Tschumper against the 2008 headwind. Davids is facing local DFL school board member, and former Al Franken staffer Thomas Trehus. Trehus is more than a Some Dude, but he will lose to Davids.
Senate
Likely R
House A
Obama (D) 56-41
Franken (D) 54-41
Safe D (Safe D)
House B
Obama (D) 52-46
Franken (D) 50-42
Likely R
In total, I expect a total of 6 outstate seats to change hands, as of August 1st:
SD1 and HD25A to Republicans
SD14, HD14B, HD21A, and HD27A to the DFL
Metro Seats 29-67 to follow