As much as they would like to, Republicans can’t leave Trump behind.
Sen. Kelly Ayotte has often found herself in a familiar spot with Donald Trump: Keeping her distance.
But in this fiercely independent state, Ayotte is gambling that voters might reward her for rebuking her own party's nominee. She has criticized Trump and will not endorse him — yet still plans to vote for the billionaire in November.
He’s terrible! He’s untrustworthy! And I’ll vote to put him in the world’s most powerful position! Ayotte is not the only one squeezed by paradox. Can't quit Trump is a problem that’s universal for Republican candidates.
Call it the August awakening. Republicans are realizing Trump’s “general election” pivot isn’t coming and the damage he is doing is worse than expected. ...
But, for as tough it is for Republicans stuck in their support of Trump, the road to November doesn’t look much easier if they were to, in fact, officially disavow him. The political downsides to outright condemning the top of the ticket might be just as risky as staying with him, political scientist and historians tell TPM.
Embrace Trump and you own the crazy. Try to completely toss the party’s presidential nominee, and you risk being attacked from the pro-Trump faction within the GOP—and that pro-Trump faction is not just aggressive, loud, and and angry, it’s a majority of the party.
The result is where Republicans are now. Caught in the mealy-mouthed zone of mumbled half-endorsements, embarrassed support, and reluctant promises to vote Trump. That expression you see on Republican faces? It's fear.
“The bottom line is, whatever they do, they risk alienating a major bloc of votes they’re going to need to prevail in the general election. So if you disavow Trump, all those people who turn out at his rallies and stick with him despite his sort of daily stumbles will be potentially alienated,” said Cal Jillson, a professor of political science at Southern Methodist University. “It’s not just the polls, it’s the volunteers, it’s the Republican primary electorate that is largely still with Trump.
That’s why a number of Republicans haven’t just dumped Trump, they’ve left the party. The Republican Party, the voting base of the party, is Trump’s. That’s a done deal. Trying to hang in the GOP and not support Trump’s positions at this point is like being a vegetarian at an Argentinian Steakhouse; you can do it, but it’s going to be a very uncomfortable fit.
Republican leaders like House Speaker Paul Ryan, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus have made the calculation that, at least for now, the party is better off largely lined up behind Trump. And even most of the lawmakers facing tough reelection fights have not completely severed themselves from their nominee. The calculus is that whatever votes they would gain in the independents and moderate Republican turned off by Trump would not make up for what they would lose in base turnout -- which, in this hyper-partisan age, is key to winning elections.
Except that in this “hyperpartisan age” — a term which means the Republicans move ever deeper into the crazy and anyone who doesn’t follow is regarded as moving left — the problem is that neither pole has enough voters to form a majority. Winning requires getting at least some of the voters who are not in your hat-wearing hive mentality, and Trump seems to be doing everything he can to make sure that doesn’t happen.