Donald Trump is only leading Hillary Clinton by six points (44 to 38 percent) in, of all places, Texas—the second biggest electoral prize at 38 behind California's 55. By comparison, Mitt Romney won this GOP staple by 16 points.
As PPP points out, Texas may not actually be in play this year, but a deeper dive into the demographics suggests a trend toward Democrats in future elections.
Trump's lead is based entirely on his holding a 63-33 advantage among seniors. With voters under 65, Clinton leads him 49-45. And when you look just specifically at voters under 45, Clinton leads Trump 60-35. Older voters are overwhelmingly responsible for the Republican advantage in Texas, and generational change is likely to help Democrats become more competitive.
The gap among Texas voters age 18 to 29 is the mirror opposite of those older than 65, with 66-33 percent of millennials favoring Clinton. The polling is completely in line with national trends. A USA Today survey recently showed Clinton up 36 points (56-20 percent) nationwide among voters under 35. Trump’s millennial deficit is a new low for the GOP—not even Nixon played that poorly to young voters amid the height of the student-fueled Vietnam protests.
Part of the GOP’s trouble with young voters in Texas has to do with the growing diversity among the demographic.
A big piece of that generational change is the increasing racial diversity of the electorate in Texas. Trump has a 69/25 lead with white voters but the reason the state's so competitive overall is that among non-white voters Clinton has a 73-21 lead, including a 68-27 edge with the state's booming Hispanic population.
Donnie's not doing quite as well with Latinos as he promised, though it's difficult to imagine that he's even pulling 27 percent support. Trump's other problems: taxes (64 percent say he should release his returns) and the debates (77 percent say he should do them).
Among his own supporters there's an even stronger sentiment- 82/12- that Trump needs to participate [in the debates]. If Trump is stubborn about that it could cause the bottom to fall out on his support even further.