Yes, a two + point lead in Arizona is cause for celebration. Ha!
Here’s the thing. Romney won Arizona 54-45% in 2012. McCain won his own state by the same margin in 2008. Bush’s second Presidential election in 2004 included a win 55-44%. in Arizona. This has been a pretty reliable red state for some time. Bill Clinton won it — barely -— in 1996 with the help of a third party candidate (Ross Perot).
But will Trump actually win Arizona? I’m not so sure.
Arizona only had a 53% voter turnout in 2012. I can’t see a surge in voter turnout tied to Clinton haters. Those people already would have been motivated Obama haters. So if those people turn up to vote against Clinton, they most likely voted last time (against Obama).
Then there’s this:
[Between 2012 to 2016], in Arizona, more than 175,000 Hispanics will enter the voter pool as roughly 10,000 white voters leave it.
fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
I can’t see angry white voters being any more motivated in 2016 than they were in 2012, and there will be a slighty smaller pool to draw from this time.
Will Hispanics (and other minorities) be more likely to vote? Hard to tell, but I think so. But what is true is that there will be more of them, so even if they have the same level of motivation as the 2012 election, then the Hispanic vote will increase and it is reasonable to assume a higher percentage will vote Democratic than in 2012.
There are at least two other factors to think about:
- John McCain while struggling some in his own state, still has a reliable and loyal following in Arizona. How many moderate Republicans are disgusted at Trump’s treatment of someone who they view as a man of honor and integrity (you don’t have to agree BTW). Surely, a reasonable percentage of McCain voters will, on principle, refuse to vote for Trump. Even a small percentage (even is they don;t vote from Clinton) could be important.
- About 5-6% of the population is Mormon. That doesn’t seem like much but Mormons tend to be more politically active, and they also have been prominant in the NeverTrump movement. What if this generally reliable segment of the Republican vote refuses to support Trump?
538’s current Polls Plus analysis has Trump’s chances of winning Arizona at nearly 76%. I think Arizona will be much closer and could well go blue.