It's only natural that everyone has been so focused on Donald Trump—how can you look away from that Cheeto-hued Dumpster fire?—but let's not forget that if we want Hillary Clinton to have any shot of enacting the far-reaching progressive agenda she's campaigning on, she'll need a Democratic Congress on her side.
And at Daily Kos Elections, you can trust us to never take our eyes off the ball. We track every key development in every key Senate and House race every day of the week—only serious news, no fluff or bogus "scandals"—and you can read about it all, for free, by signing up for our Morning Digest newsletter.
To give you a taste of the kinds of news we cover, we've put together an overview of the top Senate races that the Democratic Party is targeting this year. Democrats currently hold 46 seats, so they need to win five more for a majority, or four if they keep the White House since the vice president would break ties. Here, in order of the likelihood they change hands, are the seats Democrats are most likely to pick up:
1. Wisconsin. Ever since he was first elected in 2010, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has acted as though he represents Alabama, not a swing state. As extreme as his conservative voting record has been, his penchant for sticking his foot in his mouth and chomping down hard is even more remarkable. Every poll ever taken has shown former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold leading—even GOP polls! Conservative groups long ago cut back on their planned ad spending, making RoJo look like a dead man walking.
2. Illinois. Republican Sen. Mark Kirk has been more cognizant of the fact that he represents a state that's home to lots of Democrats, but for every dumb thing Johnson says, Kirk says something offensive (like the time he declared that black neighborhoods are the ones "we drive faster through"). Democrats landed a top recruit in Rep. Tammy Duckworth, a double-amputee Iraq veteran, and Illinois is a very blue state. Major GOP groups haven't even bothered making ad reservations here.
3. Indiana. Democrats scored an unexpected coup when former Sen. Evan Bayh decided to seek his old seat at the last minute, which is currently open thanks to a Republican retirement. A series of internal Democratic polls have found Bayh with a wide double-digit lead on GOP Rep. Todd Young, and Republicans haven't responded with contradictory numbers of their own. Indiana's a red state, no doubt about it, but the Bayh name remains special there.
4. Pennsylvania. The Keystone State recently shot up in the rankings thanks in part to Donald Trump's fading fortunes, and recent polls have shown Democrat Katie McGinty taking the lead on GOP Sen. Pat Toomey. But while Toomey's an arch-conservative, he's done a good job of pretending otherwise, and he also has an enormous campaign war chest, so while McGinty might have a slight edge right now, this is still a tough race.
5. New Hampshire. In what is perhaps the truest tossup in the nation, Democrats have united behind Gov. Maggie Hassan in their effort to unseat Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who's tried to frenetically twist away from Trump without actually saying she's un-endorsing him. New Hampshire is a volatile state that can move violently with the prevailing political winds, but for the same reason, it's also a very unpredictable state. An average of recent polls has the race knotted at exactly 43 apiece.
6. Florida. The mother of all swing states, Florida will also be home to an epic showdown between Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy. Rubio, who constantly whined about how much the Senate sucks during his failed presidential bid, infamously went back on his pledge not to seek re-election. And just the other day, he also refused to promise to serve a full six-year term—a promise Murphy had no problem making. Polls currently show Rubio ahead, but Trump is trailing here, which means Rubio will have a difficult balancing act to maintain through Election Day.
But it's not all offense for Democrats: We do need to defend an open seat in Nevada, where longtime party leader Harry Reid is retiring. Fortunately, Democrats have a strong candidate in former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, and polls have her neck-and-neck with the GOP's choice, Rep. Joe Heck.
As you can see, though, Team Blue has a really good chance to win back the Senate. But progressives need to stay on top of what's going on so that we can know where to deploy our resources for maximum effect.
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