Paul Ryan and team—the ones who insist the Congressional Budget Office score of Trumpcare was the greatest thing since sliced bread—keep highlighting one thing, or one sliver of one thing that is overall not a good thing: lower premiums. It’s important to note that doesn't mean lower premiums now—it means eventually. And it doesn't mean lower premiums than those anyone is paying right now, but a slower increase in the rise of premiums for some people.
But the way the bill achieves those lower average premiums has little to do with increased choice and competition. It depends, rather, on penalizing older patients and rewarding younger ones. According to the C.B.O. report, the bill would make health insurance so unaffordable for many older Americans that they would simply leave the market and join the ranks of the uninsured.
The remaining pool of people would be comparatively younger and healthier and, thus, less expensive to cover. Other changes would help make health insurance skimpier — cheaper, but with deductibles that are higher than those criticized by Republicans under Obamacare. […]
On premiums alone, prices would rise by more than 20 percent for the oldest group of customers. By 2026, the budget office projected, “premiums in the nongroup market would be 20 percent to 25 percent lower for a 21-year-old and 8 percent to 10 percent lower for a 40-year-old — but 20 percent to 25 percent higher for a 64-year-old.”
But the change in tax credits matters more. The combined difference in how much extra the older customer would have to pay for health insurance is enormous. The C.B.O. estimates that the price an average 64-year-old earning $26,500 would need to pay after using a subsidy would increase from $1,700 under Obamacare to $14,600 under the Republican plan.
So, yeah, if you squint at it just right, some premiums for some people wouldn't be as high as they would be under Obamacare. Because all the sick people and older people have been forced out of the pool.
TrumpCare is a travesty: It cuts taxes for the rich, kills Medicaid expansion for the poor and defunds Planned Parenthood. We can defeat it in the Senate, if you call the Capitol Hill switchboard at (202) 224-3121 and contact your Senators.