In 10 out of the 17 counties where early in-person voting data were available, 41 percent of voters were registered Democrats and nearly 48 percent were registered Republicans as of Wednesday, according to Bonier’s analysis of state figures. (Although the Democratic National Committee is one of Target Smart’s clients, the firm is not working on the special election in Kansas in any capacity, Bonier said.)
In the district’s 2016 general election, by contrast, registered Democrats made up 23 percent of the electorate, while nearly 52 percent of voters were Republican. Democrats have narrowed the gap in absentee voting by mail as well.
Thus far, 43 percent of absentee voters across the district are registered Democrats, while 45 percent are Republicans.
— Huffington Post
That means Thompson is running 20-25% ahead of the 2016 split.
And loosely engaged voters are showing up.
The GOP’s own data shows a close race as well:
Nearly 13,000 GOP voters had cast ballots in advance by mail or in-person compared to about 10,900 Democrats as of Monday morning, according to data provided by the Republican Party. Another 3,400 unaffiliated voters, who could tip the balance, had also cast ballots. Estes’ campaign manager, Rodger Woods, stressed the importance of turnout in the campaign’s final 24 hours in an email.
— Kansas City Star
An internal Republican poll taken last week supposedly had Estes up only 1 point. Both the Cook Political Report and Inside Politics, while showing Estes favored, have downgraded his advantage recently. Republican turnout also looks relatively weak in early voting (which, of course, may not end up meaning anything.) And in a special election where turnout is expected to be low, small differences in who votes can have big consequences.
— Five Thirty Eight
And in case you were wondering whether this is a swingy district, keep in mind that Koch industries is headquartered here. And: