On Tuesday, Alabama GOP Gov. Kay Ivey announced that she was rescheduling the special election for the final years of ex-Sen. Jeff Session’s Senate term from 2018 to 2017. The party primaries will be Aug. 15, with a Sept. 26 runoff for contests where no candidate takes a majority of the vote, and the general election will be Dec. 12; the winner will serve out the rest of the term, which ends in early 2021. The 2018 date was set by then-Gov. Robert Bentley, who resigned in disgrace last week after using state resources and state personnel to try and cover up a sex scandal.
The decision to move up the special is likely bad news for GOP Sen. Luther Strange, who was appointed to his new job by Bentley in early February. As we’ve detailed before, as state attorney general, Strange was tasked with investigating Bentley and his coverup. But after Donald Trump announced that Sessions was his choice to head the Justice Department, Strange very much wanted Bentley to appoint him to the Senate. But just before Election Day, Strange had requested that the state legislature halt its impeachment proceedings against Bentley “until I am able to report to you that the necessary related work of my office has been completed.”
Since Strange was aware that accepting a Senate appointment from the man he was investigating would look very bad, he belatedly insisted that he never actually said he was investigating the governor, and claimed he had only asked the legislature to suspend its impeachment proceedings because there were "some common players involved" in another investigation. However, after Strange was appointed, the new state attorney general acknowledged that his office had been investigating Bentley the whole time, something Strange belatedly admitted as well. This ugly story may have been old news in 2018, when Strange originally was supposed to face the voters, but it will be a lot more fresh in August and September.
Still, Strange won’t go down without a fight.
As the incumbent, he has access to plenty of money and support from his party. On Tuesday, the well-funded Senate Leadership Fund, which is close to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, made it clear that they are backing Strange, and this is a group that is willing to spend vast amounts of money to win. There’s been no public polling here, so we don’t know if voters are interested in dumping Strange over his sketchy moves, or if they’re inclined to give their old attorney general the benefit of the doubt.
Because the special election is this year, any office holder who wants to run can jump in without needing to give up their current post, which could incentivize some GOP politicians to challenge Strange. The biggest and most notorious name out there is Roy Moore, who was suspended as chief justice of the state Supreme Court last year. Moore’s team said back in February that he was considering a Senate bid, as well as runs for governor or attorney general. After Ivey moved the race, Moore scheduled a Wednesday afternoon “announcement” on an unknown topic. Moore was suspended from office last year for defying federal court's orders on same-sex marriage, which probably will be a plus for most GOP voters.
State Senate leader Del Marsh, who is reportedly quite wealthy, says he’ll make his decision this week on a Senate bid. Marsh has also been flirting with a gubernatorial bid, but he seems to have closed the door on that, saying that he’d “have a real hard time running against Gov. Ivey.” (Though Ivey herself hasn’t announced if she’ll seek a full term in 2018 yet.)
GOP state Sen. Slade Blackwell also told Birmingham’s ABC 33/40 that he’s considering facing Strange. An unnamed GOP source also suggest to the Washington Examiner that Rep. Mo Brooks, an ardent member of the far-right Freedom Caucus, could go for it, though Brooks has yet to say anything publicly. Back in November, Brooks expressed interest in a Senate appointment, so he clearly isn’t absolutely in love with staying in the House. Brooks also is exactly the type of guy who would challenge a flawed incumbent in a primary, because that’s exactly how he got to the House. In 2010, Brooks ran against Rep. Parker Griffith, who delighted the House leadership when he left the Democratic Party the previous year, and won 51-33.
A few other Republicans made noises about running against Strange before the special was moved up. State Sen. Trip Pittman acknowledged his interest last week, while ex-state Rep. Perry Hooper, a finalist for the Senate appointment, has been reportedly thinking about it. It’s not quite clear when potential candidates will need to make up their minds. The secretary of state set the filing deadline for May 17, but confusingly, the parties can set an earlier date. The state GOP says they’ll determine their dates this weekend, while Democrats say they’ll set theirs after the party executive committee meets.
Alabama is a dark red state, and the GOP is likely to keep this seat no matter what. Still, hopefully a credible Democrat will take what amounts to a free shot. As Scott Brown’s 2010 win in deep blue Massachusetts demonstrates, strange things can happen when the political winds are blowing against the president’s party, and it’s possible that if Strange wins a bloody primary, he could be vulnerable. Moore may also give Team Blue an unexpected opening: In 2012, as Moore was running for his old job after being removed in 2003 for refusing to comply with a federal judge's order to remove a monument of the Ten Commandments from the grounds of the state supreme court, he only won 52-48. An energetic Democratic campaign could also help Democrats lay the groundwork for the 2018 statewide races as well.