I guess I had it all wrong, maybe, hard to know — really. At least, if one is to believe a long well-written must read HuffPo article. And, I do. Because it’s based on interviews with people who know a whole lot more than me. And they’re terrified. I was always terrified. I just had the wrong nightmare.
I once thought I had it all figured out.
It was so easy, made so much sense. Here’s how certain I was. I’m an author - fiction - and in December, I got 40 pages into a fast-write, meant to be published by June about how World War 3 would start. I stopped at page 40 because I couldn’t keep up with the fucker, Trump. Every “plot” line I had was occurring before my eyes. I wasn’t writing fiction, I was righting history’s “prequel.”
Yeah, I knew.
My theory, dabbed in evidence.
Trump’s hardened supporters, led by Bannon and his readers, didn’t hate Russia, or Putin. Indeed they lionized Putin as a strong man. More importantly, Putin would play a huge part in the “White Men’s last stand, Western Civilization’s grand war for the 21st Century”, defeating Islam — and its adherents, forever. Trump was down with “winning” and so this was “fine” with him — he’d always had a racist streak in him anyway. He couldn’t hide it.
Meanwhile, Putin hates being anyone’s lesser, both as a country and leader. He dreams of the glory days of the mighty red bear, he wanted to be feared as the Soviets instead being mocked as inherently corrupt Russians. But, Russia cannot be a world super-power without control of, or at least more control of, the world’s oil production, distribution, and price. Obama knew this, and Putin got “worked" by Obama like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. At. Every. Step. that mattered, Obama beat him.
Putin also hated Hillary, likely because she’d been so “mean” as Secretary of State. But more because he knew damn well he couldn’t manipulate her. Plus, she had a bit of “McCain” to her swag. She’d be more likely to get physical (within limits) to keep Putin caged. A bear threatened by a cage is one angry ...and deep in thought, bear.
So, Putin set about to at least destabilize or delegitimize Hillary and thereby the U.S. by supporting Trump. Sweet Jesus on a chopper, it wasn’t hard to pump Trump and get Trump’s loyalty. Throw out a compliment, wrapped in a blanket of a thousand threats about revealing loans with criminals and sex with ...young? girls. He had hooked like a bass. And, because Putin’s one smart motherfucker, with a lot of smart intel guys around, he managed to pull off what Hillary couldn't — a victory, for Trump. Surprise!
The Plan.
This was great. Because Putin’s real goal was to obtain control of Central Asia, the oil part, or at least “more” control of the area. He doesn’t give a fuck about Syria, except to the extent that it’s a doorway to Iraq and Iran — the countries with “the good stuff.” But, he could never “knock on that door” because Obama would answer, and, well — Putin’s ass still hurt. But with Trump as Pres ...
Trump brought along Bannon et al, and they were itching for their war of the century in the same area. A match made n heaven. They were ready to roll, but it had to be fast. Evidence of the campaign’s collusion couldn't be hidden forever. Trump had maybe 18 months prior to impeachment to “get it done.” Putin let him know.
If one needs evidence of the above, well — Trump told us himself.
His inauguration speech. (Approximating) “We will forge new alliances” — wonder who he meant? - “to wipe Islamic terrorism off the face of the Earth”- well, he couldn’t exactly come out and say "declare war on Iraq and Iran to build a new American century, one safe for white men everywhere.” Days later, he assured us with his speech at the CIA — “we should have taken their oil, maybe we’ll get another chance.”
Plus, he banned people from entry by the seven nations he loathed, the “losers” in the coming war, an opening act. Can’t have enemies comin’ on over.
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Simple, right? Obvious, even. So obvious, I had to drop my damn novel, forty pages in! That’s at least two week’s of work, counting editing. Pissed me off.
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Except maybe I was wrong.
Liink to the same article:
A real good case is made that our ultimate enemy, instead of partner, will be, if not already, Russia.
Of course, the article includes some of the same obvious themes, Trump’s thin-skinned, impulsiveness, Putin’s cunning and long-planned means to “make Russia great again” but where it surprises is two-fold.
One, just how provocative the Russians are happy to be — already.
But it’s less understood that in international airspace and waters, Russia and the U.S. are brushing up against each other in perilous ways with alarming frequency. This problem, which began not long after Russia’s seizure of the Crimea in 2014, has accelerated rapidly in the past year. In 2015, according to its air command headquarters, NATO scrambled jets more than 400 times to intercept Russian military aircraft that were flying without having broadcast their required identification code or having filed a flight plan. In 2016, that number had leapt to 780—an average of more than two intercepts a day
Ok, that is some crazy scary shit. Period. The provocation includes a willingness to risk an accidental start to a war? The article theorizes that Putin’s confident that the U.S. has a “soft spot” in its willingness to wage war against Russia, meaning there’s a line, beyond which we simply won't go. Well, that sounds too right even without Trump. Now add a president terrified of the blackmail Putin already holds over him? Fuck. Me.
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The Oft Forgotten Factor
Trump so often appears to be Putin’s lapdog, that we forget that very very occasionally, Trump’s willing to lash out at a perceived slight by Putin.
“Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all.” And in late March, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump was becoming increasingly frustrated with Russia, throwing up his hands in exasperation when informed that Russia may have violated an arms treaty
This, added to the above, scares the shit out of me, but I guess Putin believes the risk is worth it because the reward is just so sugary.
But, why?
Back to the obvious theory, albeit by different means, risk and a big bonus reward.
First, I’ve already used a ton of the article and I fully believe in fair use being honored, but more importantly, the article goes on to list several more reasons war could trigger accidentally, and the obviously provocative things Russia does. The article leaves the “why” unexamined.
Back to what I probably know. It goes back to oil and freedom to act in the Middle East — obviously. It’s all the guy’s got. It’s not like Russia is loaded with great farmland, tons of good ocean ports, a massive manufacturing base (stuff we have). With Obama and a strong Europe, that door was closed, period. With jackass and a nationalist, Russian-friendly, Europe, the door opens a crack, now, and maybe all the way, later. But, apparently, by threatening us, not partnering, he also gets to raise Russia right back up with, or even above, us as a world power. Think of how damn weak our polarized nature can make us internationally. (Trump is proud to fan the polarization flames).
The end game.
Putin’s more willing to act provocatively to get what he needs in all areas. He’ll jack-around with our elections, unafraid. He’ll flame up Europe. He’ll play with his Trump toy. But, I also suspect he’s willing to set-up a fake “terrorist attack” — a true false flag, not the tinfoil, Alex Jones, kind. In fact, as O’Donnel asked this week, would Putin force his Syrian counterpart to Chem attack some poor hapless people, so Trump could cowardly just lob some missiles into Syria? Prop Trump up a little with no real risk?
Putin’s been thinking about this for over a decade. He will NOT let the evilness of killing innocents get in his way. And unlike our dumbass, Putin is as cunning and informed leader as exists right now. His willingness to screw with us forces us to ask questions regarding what we “think” we see.
I might’ve been wrong, apparently likely was.
I thought Putin would arrange for us to fight together in the Middle East, perhaps only China, protecting Pakistan, would pose a threat to stop a partnership. But, that scenario wouldn’t raise the mighty red bear, wouldn’t necessarily make Russia the world's second super-power. This option would. I’m scared. If you read the article, you will be, too. Read it anyway. The truth hurts, but it’s necessary pain.
My latest novel, this one not historical prequel. Unless aliens attack.