A new internal poll of Virginia’s Democratic primary next month from Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam gives him his biggest lead to date, yet the overall picture is still cloudy. Northam's survey, from Garin-Hart-Yang, finds him up 50-33 on ex-Rep. Tom Perriello, an even bigger margin than a recent PPP poll conducted for a Northam ally that had him ahead 45-35.
However, in between these two pro-Northam polls, the Washington Post released a survey finding Perriello ahead by a tight 40-38 spread. There are just three weeks to go before the election, so whether the candidates are separated by 2, 10, or 17 points matters a great deal. With so little polling to go, it's very hard to say who might be right.
We have a bit more data to go on for the general election, including some fresh numbers from that same WaPo poll. Both Democrats crush the Republican frontrunner, former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, in similar fashion: Perriello leads him 50-37 and Northam's on top 49-38.
Term-limited Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe also enjoys a strong 49-25 job approval rating, so whether Northam and Perriello are both benefiting from McAuliffe's glow, or if they're all benefiting from disgust toward Donald Trump, Democrats have to be pleased with the way things are looking in the Old Dominion. The most recent prior survey of this race was courtesy Quinnipiac last month, and they, too, found the two Democrats ahead by comparable margins.