Having been a part of a few campaigns in Montana, as a paid staffer and also as an intern, I’m hoping I can add a couple insights into the very narrow path I see for Quist to win tomorrow. As you may know by now, Montana is the nation’s largest congressional district, by population. It’s also a fairly red state, with some libertarian leanings, but also a streak of help-your-neighbor, help-your-community progressive populism. Democrats that do well here (Schweitzer, Tester, Bullock, etc.) are able to sell themselves as Montanans first, Democrats second. On that front, Quist has a clear advantage. There’s hardly a guy in the state more associated with it, and up until becoming a political candidate, hardly one more well-liked. Greg Gianforte, to my knowledge, is not well-liked by very many people, anywhere. The state GOP has been lukewarm toward him, at best, but have had a hard time saying no to one of the richest guys in the state.
So, in my opinion, there’s two things to watch for tomorrow, and they are somewhat tangentially related. First, turnout along I-90 and I-15, specifically Missoula, Butte, Helena, Great Falls, and Bozeman. Quist will win in all those major cities (by our standards). It's important that he run up good margins in several of them, and that a good portion of the electorate votes in those counties. If things really have begun to turn against Gianforte and the GOP, the urban turnout needs to be stronger in relation to the rural turnout.
Second, watch both Gianforte’s margin in places like Hill, Fergus, Flathead, Sanders, and Ravalli counties, and watch the vote share there for the libertarian, Mark Wicks. The libertarian party in Montana has done a credible job of staying in the public consciousness, always fielding a candidate for statewide races. The state’s most conservative voters have a strong libertarian bent (get the effing government out of my business, no matter what types). Additionally, Wicks is a generally likeable guy (I should know, he’s my neighbor) and has run a credible campaign. He’s been savvy about taking full advantage of free media, and without question won some voters to his side with his close in the lone debate. It’s my belief that if he can break through the usual (L) threshold of 3-4%, up in to the 6-7%, Quist will win.
Take all this with a grain of salt. I'm an optimist, for one, and I hate Greg Gianforte with all the heat of 1,000 suns. The man literally makes my skin crawl. He’s a classic, typical Republican anymore, only concerned for himself and those most similar to him. His religious beliefs are fanatical, his fiscal beliefs are radical, and he’s a world-champion asshole to boot (see the body-slamming incident). In a state with 7 Native American reservations, and lots and lots of struggling working-class small towns, this guy would be a disaster for this state. I hope Quist has done enough to win, and I hope this little bit of insight has added to the great job others from our great state have done in portraying this race. Thanks for reading.