Those anxious about the growing world food crisis were served large helpings of hope and skepticism over the last week, as a deal was signed to allow grain shipments to resume out of Ukraine’s southern ports, and then Russia immediately resumed missile strikes on those ports. Ukrainian leaders have committed to making the effort to move the grain, but problems remain.
Anyone who grew up around grain elevators can tell you that you that they are highly combustible and that a missile strike would be with the intention of causing a catastrophe. Witness this grain dust explosion in the US Midwest:
Port workers in Odesa are hoping to keep their heads down and go about the business of preparing to load grain onto ships, maybe within days. Even if Russian missiles don’t come streaking in, hurdles remain. Will owners and insurers of ships put their men and equipment at risk?
Ukraine's grain is ready to go. But ships aren't. Why? Risk
By AYA BATRAWY, Associated Press - 7h ago
“I think it’s going to come (down) to the position of the marine insurers that provide war risk and how much they are going to be adding in additional charges for vessels to go into that area,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, shipping and commodities analyst at Lloyd’s List, a global shipping news publication.
Bockmann said vessels carrying this kind of load typically have between 20 to 25 seafarers on board.
“You can’t risk those lives without something concrete and acceptable to the shipowners and to their charterers to move grain,” she said.
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The primary risk that’s faced is obviously going to be mines,” said Munro Anderson, head of intelligence and a founding partner at Dryad. The maritime security advisory company is working with insurers and brokers to assess the risks that ships could face along the route as sea mines laid by Ukraine to deter Russia are drifting. — www.msn.com/...
I am not sure I agree with the assessment that mines are the biggest problem; Russian missiles might be a bigger threat. Still, we can see things are not simple, from additional costs and financial risk to drifting mines and Russian harassment of the port facilities.
Russia also continues its disinformation campaign about the food crisis, and Media entities often cooperate, knowingly or not. From the same AP article:
Another key element of the deal offers assurances that shipping and insurers carrying Russian grain and fertilizer will not get caught in the wider net of Western sanctions. But the agreement brokered by Turkey and the U.N. is running up against the reality of how difficult and risky the pact will be to carry out.
Russia has continuously spun the narrative that its exports of grain and fertilizer have been dealt a serious blow by Western sanctions. This is simply not true; Russian grain and fertilizer has never been on the list of sanctioned items. Russia halted exports of grain and fertilizer to spite the West, and to work the narrative that Western sanctions are starving the world. They have continued to export at increasing levels to India and China, while cutting off Africa and Europe. Russia could resume exports to the Middle East and Africa if they so choose and stop effectively blockading Ukraine from getting its grain out, any time they want. Other than continuing to use hunger as a weapon, it seems that Russia wants the world to know they control what happens in the Black Sea.
What do we think could help? Maybe the EU or the World Bank subsidizing the shipping companies to maintain their ability to make a profit or guarantee their losses?