When your puppets don't dance

The US, desperate for international boots on the ground, had trumpeted an agreement to welcome Turkish troops in Iraq. That agreement was torpedoed by the Iraqi Governing Council, which has flatly (and rightly) refused to allow any troops from any neighboring countries.

The Council's decision wasn't rooted in any powers granted by the US occupiers, but by sheer moral force. The understanding was clear -- you allow Turks into our country, and we will shoot at them.

Ever since that decision, the US has waged a war of words to undermine the Council.

Increasingly alarmed by the failure of Iraq's Governing Council to take decisive action, the Bush administration is developing possible alternatives to the council to ensure that the United States can turn over political power at the same time and pace that troops are withdrawn, according to senior U.S. officials here and in Baghdad.

The United States is deeply frustrated with its hand-picked council members because they have spent more time on their own political or economic interests than in planning for Iraq's political future, especially selecting a committee to write a new constitution, the officials added. "We're unhappy with all of them. They're not acting as a legislative or governing body, and we need to get moving," said a well-placed U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "They just don't make decisions when they need to."

Oh boy. Were to even begin?

First of all -- it is the very nature of government officials to look out for their own political and economic interests. Heck, George Bush started this war in large part because of his own political (reelection) and economic (Halliburton) interests. For the US to now act dismayed that Iraqi politicians are being, well, political, is beyond bizarre.

But more importantly, why is this being leaked? To what purpose? To prove once and for all that the US is an occupying power, and to end all pretenses that Iraqis have a stake in their own country?

Does anyone realize the danger of saying things like this?

U.S. officials are still hoping that they can "stay the course, only faster," the well-placed U.S. official said. If the council exercised its responsibilities, Bremer would even be prepared to hand over greater authority "by the truckload," the senior official in Baghdad added.  

It is by the grace of the Shiite on the council that Iraq hasn't erupted into full-fledged rebellion. "Greater authority" isn't Bremer's to hand over. The Shiite's can take it any time they want. They have the bodies, they have the weaponry, and they have the intelligence (heck, the Shiites on the council likely know more about the CPA than the best-informed Sunni guerillas).

The Shiite have been patient for a variety of reasons. They know the US will have to cut and run eventually, so they are sitting back and waiting, letting others do their dirty work. And if Americans kill of at least some of their Sunni rivals, so much the better. But whatever magnanimity they've given the US depends in large part with their leadership role in the Governing Council. It is that position they hope to parlay into national control once the Americans cut and run -- hence the politicking that has Bremer and the US all in a huff.

Any threats against the Council can have serious repercussions. The Shiites don't have any love for us. They are not our allies. They are using us, in a way, to achieve control over Iraq, knowing we won't stick around forever. We are using the Council, as well, as a way to buy off potential rivals. So long as they believe they'll be in charge of a new Iraq, they have no reason to roil the waters.

But that delicate balance depends on maintaining the pretention that the Governing Council has power, and will be the transitional body to the eventual Iraqi government. We threaten to take that away, and we will get a national rebellion.

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  i love the sudden shock & horror, both with the council & our senate here in the us, that politics are POLITICAL.

  by n69n on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:34:02 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Are they already looking to scapegoat the council for making all of this take so darn long?

  There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow men - true nobility is being superior to your former self. - Hindu Proverb

  by theoria on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:35:15 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Excellent analysis Kos, though somewhat scary. Perhaps just further proof of the utter arrogance of our leaders and their own private agendas.

  by mickey on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:37:23 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Like someone said on a previous thread it's Awe & Shock ...

  ... for the CPA, Pretzel and his pals, and Congress that our best unlaid plans are coming apart at the seams (the mildest scenario), and very possibly coming back to bite us you-know-where very soon.

  Quite a fitting rebuttal to Operation Shock and Awe.

  Fitting, yet sad, scary, predictable, and totally avoidable.

  by murfmom on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:39:45 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Shock And Awe is becoming Aw Shucks...

    by MeanDeanMemeMachine on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 10:08:15 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  There is big trouble brewing here folks.  It looked like the Bushies were going to use the council as a fig leaf for the old cut and run.  Make a big display of handing over power to them, pull out the military and then when things go to hell just throw up your hands and claim there was nothing you could do about it.  But if they can't even work with these guys well enough to do that, they are totally, completely hosed and judging by the near hysterical tone of this report my guess is that they know it.  Iraqification my ass.  It is even more of a joke than Vietnamization.  But heh, Saddam was a bad guy so that makes it all worthwhile.  What a bunch of complete and total wankers.

  by SW on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:42:08 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  My theory is that the U.S. will cut and run by next summmer at the latest.  This plan will require a media blackout so that a disintegrating Iraq is not on the front pages.  But Americans don't care about countries where we have no troops, so that shouldn't be hard.  One more failed state shouldn't count in a region rife with them.

  I am looking for Bush et al to say "Never Mind."
  The electorate will echo with "What War?"  The media will echo with "That's Old News."

  by Athena on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:44:15 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    "iraq? thats soooo last year!
     this year the enemy is gay marriage!!"

    by n69n on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:50:28 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      And yes, that is exactly what they'll say.
      

      "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

      by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:55:13 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    You paint an interesting scenario.  Normally, I'd say that even this administration isn't so cynical and cowardly that it would pull such a stunt just to get an election boost; however, Bush, et al have shown a remarkable capacity for said cynicism and cowardice.

    Even so, I hold out hope that most Americans, who tune in to politics once every four years right around September, will wake up and smell the Turkish coffee.

    by JW in AZ on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:51:24 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Sadly, that's a very realistic scenario.
    

    "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

    by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:54:01 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    They can cut and run and hope it gets off the front page, but their is no way they can undo the lives lost and the money spent.

    I am as cynical as anyone about our lazy media and short attention span, but this is too big. If the media doesn't cover it, the democratic candidate should fill the airwaves with it, complete testimonials from the families of the dead and maimed.

    by Mo on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:20:39 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Should, yes.  But won't, I'm afraid.

      by Lisa on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 08:51:22 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Maybe they're waiting for some major terrorist attack in the US.  Then all the media attention will be on that, and they can bring home the troops in a hurry to protect the fatherland.  The public will probably support it and just forget about Iraq.

    by Rene on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 10:46:41 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Rene theorizes, "Maybe they're waiting for some major terrorist attack in the US."

      A more likely scenario than the gay option, I think. And which "could" provide a workable cover in the end. Gay demands,a marginal 10% of the population abouts anyway, like working class demands, and those of women and environmentalists, who are "potentially" considerably larger on the politcal "weight" scales, are easily enough ignored anyway, and especially in an endless war environment. At least until there are signs of a broad movement there, that can't simply be ignored any longer, because its too much in their face.

      The "unconcious" body language of the U.S. since the resistance became a serious issue, is one of unpreparedness and fear of defeat, to be sure. But because its largely just the lives of working-class "grunts" that are really at stake to here, and "they" exist to serve ruling class priorities in any case-, and the prize IS "control of the Middle East and Oil", they won't back out lightly, despite their projected fears. There are some legs to this imperialist adventure yet, though they do look a little wobbly from time to time.

      What suggests that to me, thought it could simply be reflexive contingency planning, is all this "chatter" about tactical nuke development, and the provision of these funds to the development of a "bunker buster nuke". Though one is also probably talking "practical" development some considerable distance in time out there, one would think. Still, with that and talk of a renewed "draft" growing louder, to get more of the unemployed and surplus working class youth of America out there on the "pointy end", of some usefulness as cannon fodder, it's clear that "planning" of some sort, at least, is still in motion. So long as there is even the remotest chance of getting their chestnuts out of the fire, they will likely "stay the course" for awhile yet.

      Young working class lives are relatively cheap in any case. The resources of the nation invested there are nearly always minimal, comparatively. Especially when there's a surfeit of them about, to be potential sources of trouble and expense at home.

      All that said, the body language signals are, this short distance in, that of defeat. Though they are trying to recover their composure, and project a much affected aire of toughness, such as that totally redundant display they put on following that latest "blackhawk down" at Tikrit (?). (Too lazy to check the correctness of my spelling.)

      My own view, at this time, is, that much depends yet on the Iraqi "resistance" becoming even more effective at killing U.S. soldiers. And a sudden and dramatic change there could well be yet contingent on, the working through of the extent to which Russia does or does not come to the "material" aid of "the resistance". And my bet is they will. Even Europe... is not beyond the realm of possibility, though they will be the most anxious that it be hush, hush... even China.

      And watch Afghanistan.

      And watch the neocon fascists at home. They will not be gracious in defeat there, at all, I would place my wager. (Better safe than sorry.)  

      by Canuck Coot on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 02:19:21 AM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        I've wondered about Russia's (and China's) eventual participation too - it would be in their economic best interest.  But Bush would have to give up some potentially very lucrative oil leases in order to ensure it, and I don't think at this point he will.

        by heynonnyno on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 04:53:02 AM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Thomas Friedman also had a good editorial on the situation with the governing council a few days ago. Apparently most of them don't even show up for work. Chalabi hasn't been in the country for weeks.

  Another good point he made, which I hadn't considered, is that building up Iraq's security forces without having a strong civil authority for them to be responsible to is useless. We're likely to have a highly trained army of mercenaries and bandits if there isn't something to keep them in check.

  People forget that this was one of the reasons that Bush 41 didn't go ahead with overthrowing Hussein; there was no credible alternative to his rule. No potential leaders to replace him. Now they've tried to create some out of whole cloth and it's not working.

  Am I the only one here who misses Papa Bush?

  by 2fatt on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:47:03 PM PDT

  •  Bush Pater: Lear or Old Hamlet?

    It's true that Bush, Sr., Baker, Scowcroft and Powell (before he sold his soul) were skilled diplomats.  If I were Bush the elder, watching my son undo every decent thing I accomplished as President (Remember that GW1 was Bush's only real accomplishment, and many suggest that we brought it on ourselves...), I'd be borderline suicidal.  This really is a Shakespearean tragedy.

    by JW in AZ on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:02:41 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    I couldn't stand the Bush 41 either, but it's hard to think of anyone who's been a worse President than his son.  I suppose Bush 43's twisted psyche demands that he try to outdo his old man, and f*** up so badly in the process that he makes people feel nostalgic for Poppy.  Gulf War I can be said to have worked out reasonably well, if you forget about the way we allowed Saddam to slaughter the people who rebelled against him.  There was also the misadventure in Panama, where we may have killed upwards of 3,000 people in our literal police action bust of Noreiga.

    Of course, neither of those things resulted in a struggle whose dimensions are still unknown to us, may last well over a decade, and end up costing tens-to-hundreds of thousands of lives.

    From now on, 41 + 43 = 0.

    "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

    by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:04:53 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    I couldn't stand the Bush 41 either, but it's hard to think of anyone who's been a worse President than his son.  I suppose Bush 43's twisted psyche demands that he try to outdo his old man, and f*** up so badly in the process that he makes people feel nostalgic for Poppy.  Gulf War I can be said to have worked out reasonably well, if you forget about the way we allowed Saddam to slaughter the people who rebelled against him.  There was also the misadventure in Panama, where we may have killed upwards of 3,000 people in our literal police action bust of Noreiga.

    Of course, neither of those things resulted in a struggle whose dimensions are still unknown to us, may last well over a decade, and end up costing tens-to-hundreds of thousands of lives.

    From now on, 41 + 43 = 0.

    "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

    by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:05:37 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Sorry for the double post.
      

      "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

      by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:11:44 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    The sad thing, the utterly sad thing about your statement is that it's been said before, just before Diem was whacked (with our backing).

    What the US isn't willing to admit yet is that Iraq is three countries, Southern Kurdistan, Iraq (Suni), and the Islamic Republic of Iraq (Shia). No one suggested that Yugoslavia remain one country, so why do we insist that Iraq remain one country? Iraq as it exists is a construct of British colonialism, held together by Saddam and the leaders that came before him. Lacking a charismatic leader that can united the Iraqi people, let Iraq splinter and settle back into it's historic ethnic enclaves.

    by Gary on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:26:28 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Here again, you're using a false analogy.  Sunnis and Shi'ites are not ethnic groups, they are religions.  There has never been any movement for an independent Shi'ite state in Iraq, and both Sunnis and Shi'ites FEAR that the U.S. will follow the old colonial policy of dividing Arab lands in order to weaken them.  Basically, Yugoslavia is not Iraq...two countries formed in two completely differnet cultural worlds.

      by Brian Ulrich on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:28:30 PM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        The Sunnis and the Shi'ites may not be ethnically different, but that doesn't change the fact that "Iraq" is a particularly artificial creation, and as such is much more prone to fracturing ala Yugoslavia. These people aren't all Iraqis because their ancestors wanted to be; they're Iraqis because a bunch of Europeans drew some very self-serving lines on a map. The world would be a much happier place today if "Kuwait" had never been carved out separately, and if the Kurds had just been given their own country.

        And no, that doesn't mean that I approved of Hussein's original invasion of Kuwait. Just that he seized on a kernal of historic truth to use as cover for his power-grab.

        by geoduck on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:50:29 PM PDT

        •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

          But your Kuwait point shows the real issue:  In Yugoslavia, areas with different cultures, languages, and traditions were rammed together.  Except for Kurdistan, Iraq and the rest of the Arab states had more or less the same culture, language, and traditions and got carved up.  Iraqs' ancestors may not have wanted to be Iraqis: They wanted to be part of a united Arab state.

          by Brian Ulrich on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 08:32:10 PM PDT

          •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

            Except for Kurdistan, Iraq and the rest of the Arab states had more or less the same culture, language, and traditions and got carved up.

            And so is Northern Ireland. Your point? Just because two regions are 'more or less' the same, from an outsiders eyes, does not mean that they 'want' to be considered one state.

            by Gary on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 11:52:30 PM PDT

            •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

              Here's the bottom line:  There is no movement in southern Iraq for an independent Shi'ite state.  On the contrary, there is fear that the U.S. will do what the British did and try to break up an Arab nation so as to weaken it.  Yes, Iraq is a colonial mishmash, but as with most other Arab states, it's one where the population tends to want greater unity rather than further subdivision.  I don't know the full history and culture of Northern Ireland.  I do know the history and culture of Iraq.

              by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 12:56:49 AM PDT

            •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

              That's because Northern Ireland has a Protestant rather than Catholic majority - a majority which is the product of centuries-old ethnic cleansing, for lack of a better word. Not a good analogy.

              by Radical Middle on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 02:47:16 AM PDT

              •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

                "Not a good analogy." by Radical Middle

                The "ethnic cleansing" analogy works really well, however. Which Britain and The Orange Order continue to try and work through.

                by Canuck Coot on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 01:44:35 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    
    'Am I the only one here who misses Papa Bush?'

    You may be. He had other problems remember, like he didn't relate to regular people very well, and, of course, he didn't like broccoli.

    Maureen Dowd also had a stunning op-ed piece today in the NYT. In this piece she makes the point that war is a function of total commitment to winning, ugly and brutal if need be. She asks whether we are ready to accept this as a society. She doesn't think we are. Why would we when as a society we were deceived by our own leaders?

    I tend to agree with her on both points. As a result, it is important for us to get out, do the best we can to leave in a way that gives average Iraqis a chance to survive, and apologize to the world for our hubris by following a more consensus driven foreign policy.

    by oofer on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:29:22 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Fareed Zakaria, in today's Guardian argues that if the US tries to pull out of Iraq too quickly, the country will descend into civil war.  This latest decision by the Bush administration is highly suspect:

  Everyone seems in favour of Iraqification. The President has urged an accelerated training schedule for the Iraqi army. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says more Iraqi troops, not Americans, would be the best answer to his problems. Where once the administration spoke of a three-year process of constitution-writing and institution-building, now it wants to turn things over in 18 months. Even the French love the new, improved schedule.

  This new impulse has less to do with Iraqi democracy than American democracy. The President wants to show, in time for re-election, that Iraqis are governing their affairs and Americans are coming home. It might not work out that way.

  It would be nice if this administration could stick to a plan for longer than a month or two.  But then, the only plan the Bushies are really focusing on is (re)election.

  by pie on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:49:35 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Pie,
    Fareed, for some reason, fails to see that the civil war began the day Saddam fell. Kos is right on about the Shiites stratagy so far--sit back and let the Americans slew off Sunni strength.

    These tribes have no cultural tie to tolerance and discourse. They are inflamed, humiliated after years of repression, and have scores to settle with each other. So democracy is doomed, at least under the present 'national' structure.

    by oofer on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:14:47 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      These tribes have no cultural tie to tolerance and discourse. They are inflamed, humiliated after years of repression, and have scores to settle with each other. So democracy is doomed, at least under the present 'national' structure.

      Oh, I agree.   Read this article, which discusses their anger:

      While the US authorities maintain that resistance attacks are carried out by former Baathists and supporters of Saddam, they continue to ignore the tribal nature of the insurgency which has grown steadily over recent months. Deeply conservative clans like the 50,000-strong Albueisi have codes of honour which they complain the American army ignores at checkpoints and during raids on houses.

      They also believe that the Koran demands jihad against foreign invaders. Asked how many American lives should be taken if one of their own is killed, the answer is: 'As many as possible.'

      Sadly, the article is titled "Americans Sow Seeds of Hatred."

      Lovely.  Makes me feel so proud of the country ruled by Bush.

      by pie on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:32:01 PM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        Thank you for the link. I reccomend others to read it, too. It gives an inkling to the complex and, sadly, social structure of the tribes we seem to be ignoring.

        We would be so much better off helping weed the fields than 'protecting' ourselves.

        by oofer on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:46:49 PM PDT

        •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

          opps. I meant,
          It gives an inkling to the complex and, sadly, reactive social structure of the tribes we seem to be ignoring.

          by oofer on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:49:26 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Precisely.  Stanley Hoffman, among others, made this argument, and made it clearly, months before the invasion.
      Too much of America -including many who should have known better- trilled to empire.  Followed a fool to folly.

      by Marisacat on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:25:01 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Fareed Zakaria, in today's Guardian argues that if the US tries to pull out of Iraq too quickly, the country will descend into civil war

    Sunni's killing Shia' clerics, targeting hospitals and police stations, shootings of citizens seen as cooperating w/ the US ...

    Descend into civil war?

    Too late.

    by Madman in the marketplace on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:16:04 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  "Increasingly alarmed by the failure of Iraq's Governing Council to take decisive action . . ."

  In my book, saying "no Turkish troops in our country" is taking decisive action.

  Further proof that BushCo. has many schemes, but no plans.
  

  "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

  by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:49:55 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Splitting Iraq up into three states under some type of regional grouping is sounding more and more like a good idea.

  by LoganFerree on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 02:57:53 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Trouble is, the Turks will never tolerate an independent Kurdish state.  They would probably either invade it, or ethnically clense the Kuridish areas of SE Turkey, which would probably result in a war with the Kurdish state.

    There's a reason the Baathist regime was tolerated for so long.  Everyone else considered the alternative of three independent states to be the one thing they didn't want.  We may soon be stuck with that as a defacto reality, and are just beginning to see how bad a thing that might be.
    

    "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

    by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:11:00 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      I think this whole idea of leaving Iraq sooner has pro-war people in this country up in arms.  They're appalled at the idea that we'd actually cut and run after making all the wonderful promises to bring stability to the Middle East.  And what about the terrorists?  We won't have come any closer to solving that LITTLE problem, either.  This administration is totally incompetent and dangerous.  There is absolutely no accountability at all.  

      I didn't watch "This Week" today, but I quess the panelists, including Zakaria and Will, really went after Perle.  Did anyone see it?  

      by pie on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:22:47 PM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        Read www.windsofchange.net if you want to see neocons very upset about leaving, and if you want to see other neocons excited about freeing up resources to go after iran and syria

        by praktike on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:28:30 PM PDT

        •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

          I believe that China is also on their laundry list at some point.

          These people should have stuck to playing "Risk."
          

          "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

          by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:49:38 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Why does everyone think this is a good idea?  The major protests have all been against splitting up Iraq!  Throughout the 20th century, there have been no independence movements in any region of the country except Kurdistan.  Every Iraq expert I know thinks this would be a catastrophe.  I suspect breaking up countries we occupy would also violate international law about occupiers.

    If you think Iraqis are mad because we're taking their oil, wait until we abolish their country!
    

    by Brian Ulrich on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:14:50 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Mentioning who will benefit from the oil brings up another issue.  Most of the oil fields are to be found in the north around Mosul, and in the Shiite south.  Aside from the fact that the Turks don't want an independent Kurdish entity on their border, splitting the country three ways leaves the Sunni area without any oil, unless they somehow manage to hold onto Mosul, something that will only happen after a lot of Arab/Kurd bloodshed.  Also, the Shiite Arabs may have their grievances against the Sunni Arabs, but they don't want to be under the thumb of the Iranians either.

      Iraq as a unified country doesn't work, but having been a country for as long as it has created problems that make partition perhaps even less attractive an option than trying to hold it together.

      Very deft diplomacy is going to be required to fix this mess, and we are 14 months and several weeks removed from the possibility of having any practiced.
      

      "L'enfer, c'est le GOP!" - JJB, from an idea by oratorio

      by JJB on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 06:00:36 PM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        While we're talking about dividing up countries, I wish we could split the US into 4 pieces.  I think we'd all be a lot happier over here in the west if California/Oregon/Washington/Arizona/Nevada were all one country.  

        The South could be another country, and the Eastern Seaboard.  

        At least this way the will of the voters in those areas would be respected.  Actually, I guess the South and Midwest doesn't have any reason to complain, they get the bible thumper in office either way.  

        by Asak on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 09:12:42 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  I have an awful bad feeling about all of the happenings in the Mid East. As for the Chimp's latest speech on democracy there "be careful what you wish for"
  I am certain if the peassant's take to the streets in Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Egypt they will not be yelling Bush but they will be shouting Osama. And no ammount of spin is going to hide it from the world.

  As to Iraq, I think the uprising by the Shia will be coming soon. I am sure Hezbollah(the shia's of Lebanon) have been there training them and as soon as they either realize the have to join the resistance to have a place in the future Iraq or they feel the CPA has sufficiently betrayed them their militias probably approaching a million men will take to the streets and all hellwill break loose.

  by Bill on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:04:16 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    When they tried a bit of democracy in Algeria, the fundamentalists won and the West was only too happy to let democracy be forgotten and let the military take over.  People in the ME don't forget our hypocrisy and double standards wrt Algeria any time soon, so why should they listen to what Dry Drunk Bush says.

    by Rene on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 10:56:10 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      You are right. If democracy gets established in the ME the people will very likely vote the fundamentalists to power... and you know how much they love the west... But hey! who cares! because we have DEMOCRACY... :rolleyes:

      Bush is deluding himself if he thinks democracy in the ME will shape a more peacefull and more pro US world...

      by Frederik on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 07:27:52 AM PDT

•  Re: The good news and bad news in Iraq

  I have a somewhat more charitable view of the situation in Iraq. Things are getting better on the ground, and the vast majority of Iraqis are grateful that Saddam has been deposed. Most Iraqis, whether they are Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, or secular, want their country to succeed -- and to that end, most are willing to compromise their parochial interests for the greater good. Iraqis who survived Saddam's reign of terror also understand that civil war would bring a different sort of terror.

  That said, the vast majority of Iraqis also what the United States to get out. Despite the fact electricity is coming back on, schools are reopening, and other aspects of civilization returning, Iraqis recognize that there is a huge difference between liberation and occupation.

  Despite the fine words in George W Bush's speech on bringing Democracy to the Middle East, for the vast majority of Iraqis -- Mr Bush's words ring hollow. Mr Bush has deployed the Armed Forces of the United States as an Army of Occupation and Colonial Exploitation.

  If Mr Bush were serious about democracy in Iraq, he would invite every village to choose representatives for a National Assembly, to be chaired by the Interim Governing Council, and let them have at it. The continued presence of American troops during this draw down period would be enough to prevent a coup by one group or another.

  But if Mr Bush were serious, he would send Halliburton and Bechtel packing. But he is not serious about democracy -- he doesn't give a damn about the Iraqi people. Power and Money are his only concerns. Mr Bush has planted the seeds of disaster in the desert sands, and nothing can prevent the bitter harvest to come.

  by Charles K on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:11:23 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Didn't you guys see richard perle on tv state how great things are in Iraq. Come on now, Americans want to hear good news and nothing will be better for bush than the troops coming home just in time for the election marketing to take effect. bush and his cabal pals know that more than 50% pf Americans could care less if 15000 Iraqis and a few hundred Americans get killed to save george's job. This is what God wants. Oh, I loved watching Richard Holbrooke serve perle his lunch. perle is the creepiest person on the planet.

  by moeman on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:12:21 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Breakdown US death since the war began according to rank:

  lt. colonel: 4

  major: 5

  captain: 16
  lieutenant (navy): 3

  1. st lieutenant: 8
  2. nd lieutenant: 6

  chief warrant officer: 9

  Sergeant major: 1

  Master sergeant: 3
  First Sergeant: 4

  Sergeant FC: 10
  Gunnery Sergeant: 2

  Staff Sergeant: 40
  Technical Sergeant: 1

  Sergeant: 61

  Corporal: 25
  Specialist: 84
  Petty Officer 3rd Class: 3

  Private FC (army): 46
  Lance Corporal: 28

  Private FC (Marines): 8
  Private: 20

  by Frederik on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:15:29 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  This Week was very interesting this morning.  The whole gang, including George Will, was beating up on Richard Perle.  The highlight was the clip of Cheney in 1991 saying why we should not go into Iraq.

  by Susan S on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:15:36 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    I agree, Susan.  It was the starkest demonstration I've seen yet of the unreality in which Perle is purposely dwelling -- things are great in Iraq! -- and which he and his AEI cronies are selling to Bush, who buys, buys, buys.  It reminded me of that Bill Maher moment when D.L. Hughley, responding to some lame defense of the Iraqi security situation made by Bill Kristol, turned to him and said, "You're high, aren't you?"

    by Lisa on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 08:44:58 PM PDT

•  Re: Failed Puppetry

  Good Lord.  Well, it was all fated to just go down.  The fear is we go with it, seems logical.

  I happened to read a small fact in the -dumbass horrible soft as jelly donuts on reality- run up to war:  
  200,000 Egyptian nationals were working in Iraq as guest workers.  In event of destabilisation of war and what have you they would of course drift one way or another home, to no jobs and thus ... spread of destabilisation.  Obviously a known component, whether they cared for the details or not, of the BushCo Neocon revolution for others.

  I have always read "Iraqification" as "liquifaction".  To say nothing of those palm trees and sand turning to any old symbol of failure in the American psyche one cares to drdge up as recurring bitter bile.

  Nothing here is working, it just is not.

  by Marisacat on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:15:36 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  I do think the council is largely unrepresentative of the desires of the Iraqi people.  But I also feel that much of its delay in meaningful productivity has come from the difficulty of building a consensus on policies.  No doubt there is plenty of promotion of self-interests but the bigger problem is that the Iraqi people are not homogeneous at all.  The country's borders were intentionally drawn to keep various factions at odds with each other, and those are the same factions that make consensus difficult today.

  But if we had a change that made the governing council seem less a tool of the US I think it would be easier for it to make progress.  I think the rival factions would be far less combative.

  by mikepridmore on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:18:30 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Did anyone see the 1991 TV clip of Cheney played on Stephanopoulos this morning -

  during the Gulf War, he gave a concise argument for why going into Baghdad and taking over the country would lead to a "quagmire."

  That's Cheney forecasting quagmire -

  by Athena on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:21:32 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    during the Gulf War, [Cheney] gave a concise argument for why going into Baghdad and taking over the country would lead to a "quagmire."

    Any vice-Presidential candidate would be a fool not to quote Cheney frequently. I can't fathom what Cheney's response would be (that the situation changed from 1991 to 2003?), but I sure hope there's a ready rejoinder (such as "no, not that much").

    (switch ve-riz-on and ace-pumpk-in and remove dashes.)

    by Ace Pumpkin on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 04:54:12 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      Well, I can tell you exactly what Cheney's response will be.  It'll be the same response that Bush will give when asked about his "we shouldn't be nation-building" campaign position.

      Say it with me, everybody:  "9/11, 9/11, 9/11..."

      by iago on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 06:36:11 PM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        Say it with me, everybody:  "9/11, 9/11, 9/11..."

        Let me try some answers to that:

        1. There was nothing about 9/11 that made the prospect of going into Iraq any less of a quagmire. Whether or not it made it necessary to go in there is (very) arguable, but where is the evidence that it had changed so it wouldn't be a quagmire?
        
        And lacking that, why weren't we planned and prepared to try to anticipate that quagmire and make it less so? What made us believe that, unlike 1991, Iraq was going to welcome us as liberators and happily form up into a Western-style democracy?
        
        
        2 - If it was 9/11 that made things different, how come you folks (signers of the PNAC) were calling for the invasion of Iraq before 9/11?
        
        
        3 - Tell us again what evidence exists Iraq was involved in 9/11, or was actively working to give its apparently non-existent WMD to al qaeda.
        
        
        4 - Please explain how taking out a totalitarian state which wasn't working with terrorists and which controlled its population and borders tightly, and replacing it with a chaotic situation where people who hate us can attack us as they please has made the world a safer and more peaceful place, and has reduced the terror threat.
        
        
        5 - Please explain how tying up the vast majority of our active military in Iraq has advanced the fight against al qaeda.
        
        
        6 - Please explain why, if we actually intended to follow through on our promises regarding Afghanistan, the funds were left out of the budget.
        
        
        7 - Please explain how we can get by on $1 billion in emergency funds to rebuild Afghanistan, whose infrastructure had been completely destroyed by two decades of war, but we have to spend $20 billion on Iraq's infrastructure after just a few weeks of knocking it down.
        
        
        8 - Please explain why it was so urgent to take out Saddam Hussein now that we couldn't wait a few months for the UN weapons inspectors to finish their job, or for Iraq's foot-dragging to piss off the rest of the Security Council.
        
        
        9 - If "everything changed after 9/11," please explain why the tax cuts were pursued as if it hadn't happened and we weren't going to be paying for war and rebuilding all over the place.

        
        
        10 - Please explain why the thought that Saddam Hussein might be lusting after nukes in his heart was a more imminent danger than North Korea proclaiming that it has nukes.
        
        
        As a follow-up, why were we more concerned about a country who's never shared any of its weapons with anyone that with a country whose entire source of hard cash is selling weapons and weapons technology (including nuclear) to everyone who can pay for it?
        

        11 - Where's Osama?

        by Ducktape on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 07:28:51 PM PDT

        •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

          Another possible question.
          Why was it safer to invade and leave vast caches of conventional weapons open to pillaging by whomever? Also, if there had been any WMDs they'd probably be in the hands of terrorists right now.

          by Cowalker on Tue Nov 11, 2003 at 02:59:47 AM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Did you see that badass Andy Rooney segment on 60 minutes the other day where he wrote a speech for W. It was basically, "I'm sorry, I thought they had WMD's but they don't. I thought they'd greet us as liberators, but they didn't. I goofed." And then he read an excerpt from G.H.W Bush's book from right aftet the first Gulf War the  that laid out the reasons for not going into Baghdad . It was awesome.

    by Jumbo on Tue Nov 11, 2003 at 05:33:18 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  I think we're right to consider the latest moves with an eye toward the U.S. electoral cycle.  I referred the other day to McCain's interview on Newshour.  His prediction:

  SEN. JOHN McCAIN: There's not a doubt in my mind. And the alarming facts are they have been getting worse for the last several months both in frequency, sophistication, and lethality. And let me just make one other prediction to you, if I could, Jim.

  JIM LEHRER: Sure.

  SEN. JOHN McCAIN: These are smart people just like the Vietnamese were smart people. I hasten that Iraq is not Vietnam. But watch February and March if we don't see things improve. They know our election - our electoral calendar and they know that large losses or significant successes by their side could affect American public opinion.

  While McCain chastened us to give those that oppose the occupation in Iraq a bit of credit, one has to wonder what ace (if any) is up the current administration's sleeve.  So, fine, we can anticipate an escalation in violence in sync with our electoral cycle.  We all know what's coming.  And it'll be ugly.  

  I think the current administration is desperately casting about for an exit strategy.

  But is the current administration's only available strategy as transparent as we make it out to be?  Is the only plan to punt?!?

  And to whom would we punt?  Is there a powerful enough party into whose lap(s) we can dump this mess?   (I'd say not a chance.) The only one that comes to mind is the Shi'ites.  And that would doubtless sow the seeds for civil (if not regional, if not global) war.

  Too bad that, when the current administration started smearing on its high-gloss paint, they (and the lapdawg press) didn't recognize that we were heading straight for a corner.

  by Chazz on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:22:35 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Does anyone realize the danger of saying things like this?

  There IS no danger since our illustrious leaders are Philosopher Kings and chosen of G-d, able to reach out into that higher plane and see the Platonic forms behind the illusions that surround us. They are of a higher plane, shepherds provided to us by Providence to lead the sheeple of the world to a bright petroleum-fueled future, where sunsets are a glorious wash of color due to the efluvium in the atmosphere and the wealthy shower the rest with pennies tossed from the windows of their flying cars. We are truly blessed that our government is provided for us, as that great be-robed holy man Scalia reminded us, by the grace of G-d.

  ANYONE who doesn't follow our Great Leader's instructions, and who doesn't follow the edicts of his chosen emisaries, is at best benighted and at worse a outrider for the Fallen One.

  You just can't see this because you have no faith.

  Sheesh.

  by Madman in the marketplace on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:26:05 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  George Stephanopoulos reporting on Sunday's (November 9, 2003) ABC's This Week, talked about the Defense Department's recent website posting (on their Defense America website), asking for Selective Service volunteers to man their Draft Board Offices.  ABC had asked whether or not that meant the Defense Department would be reinstating the Draft. The Defense Department's official explanation was that this was just part of their 20 year cycle in which they needed to renew the military to make sure that there were enough trained military available to respond if needed.  They stated that Jimmy Carter had reinstituted the draft in 1980, and that as part of the 20 year cycle, they were simply making sure that enough resources were in place if needed, just as they would need to do in 2020.  (Of course that would mean that this notice should have been posted in 2000, rather than this year in 2003, where, low morale in the Army has occurred because troops have been lied to by President "Mission Accomplished" Bush and Vice-President "weeks rather than months" Dick Cheney regarding their expected length of service in Iraq, and has caused as many as 50% of the National Guard and Reserves to indicated that they would NOT re-enlist.)

  Stephanopoulos indicated that when ABC attempted to pull up the Defense Department posting more recently, the notice had been taken down.

  Given that recent reports from military inside Afghanistan and Iraq are indicating that they believe that they will still be occupying those countries for the next ten years, it appears that there won't be a steady stream of volunteers for military service (certainly NOT from the REPUBLICAN party).  Of course, given that the Bush tax cuts have eliminated much of the educational support for college students so that many students can't afford the tuition increases, not to mention that ½ of recent Harvard graduates couldn't even find jobs upon graduation, you probably won't be seeing as many students enrolling in college.  That would conveniently eliminate the college deferment that people like Vice President Dick Cheney took advantage of to avoid the draft during the Vietnam War, (which he lost when he flunked out of Yale.  Lucky for him, he was able to use the marriage deferment.  Today's National Guard members aren't so lucky, young mothers and fathers today are finding themselves being sent into active duty in combat zones leaving their children behind to fend for themselves or under the guardianship of family members, like grandparents, who are ill equipped for the job.)

  If Bush gets re-Selected for a second term, he won't need to hide the fact that he will be depending upon the draft to send young unemployed people, who can't afford college any more, to send to Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, North Korea.......      

  Vote Democrat and Vote DEAN, like your life depends on it.  BECAUSE IT DOES.
  

  by DNSLYR on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:27:07 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    To me, the unspoken word in the niight since 9/11 has been the draft. There certainly are enough draft proprosal drifitng around on how to do it and how to structure it...

    I know it is very easy to see, and to say, why it would be political disaster, but I worry at how very much BushCo has accomplished.

    And I sit here in CA where, despite arguments to the contrary, to me he just got a LOT closer to the one thing he needs.  The one thing I have comforted myself he could not get.

    He always has been a brutal politician for all his nearly congenital defects in certain learning and functioning capacities.  He would not be the first.

    by Marisacat on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:38:51 PM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      I think we should have brought back the draft after 9/11.  

      First, it's unfair that reservist have been overburdened by so many deployments-- having to suddenly leave behind families and jobs.  With a draft, you spread the burden around and if its on a regular schedule (in Charlie Rangel's proposal, everyone serves as soon as they get out of high school, no deferments), its not as disruptive as a sudden reserve call up.

      Second and more importantly, if every congressman had a loved one in the army (and a district full of constituents with a soldier in the family),  Congress would be a lot less willing to give Bush a blank check to fight his wars.

      Right now for most Americans, we might as well have a mercenary army, they have no personal stake in the casualty reports.  If we had a draft, believe me, people would think twice before supporting any war.  

      by Beowulf on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 04:58:57 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  What I noticed in the article was that a shake up in Iraq is underway in order to pave the way for troop withdrawals.  Apparently the US government has decided since more US troops are not available, they will use Iraqification to wind down the war.  We will see if the Bush II administration admits this and allows internalization of the occupation and political process, or do they have an Iraqi version of Gen. Duong Van "Big" Minh to take over.  Whoops, no.  The Iraqi Army and its Generals were disbanded.  

  by Jim S on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:36:34 PM PDT

•  And your sheikh don't rock and roll

  
  Do you recognize this symbol?

  It's the badge of the SCIRI, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq.  Here is their website.  That's right.  And they have well-financed offices in London, Syria, Tehran, Vienna, Canada, France, Holland, Sweden, Norway, Finland and Australia.  I'm sure you've heard of this Shi'ite organization before.  

  But did you know they have had a long-standing political alliance with The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headed by Jalal Talabani and The Kurdish Democratic Party headed by Masood Barzani?  Oh yeah, they have websites and international financing too.

  Of course I'm sitting here thousands of miles from Iraq and all I can do is read reports from those who are there.  But it seems to me that if I were a powerful Iraqi Shi'ite my plan would be:

  1. Let the Americans "pacify" Baghdad and the "Sunni Triangle".  
  2. Let this "pacification" and its resulting casualties make the average non-political Iraqi angry and resentful towards America and its allies.
  3. When the Americans give up, which they will because they have no stomach for imperialism, I can proclaim that "we" fought off the invaders.
  4. Meanwhile, the complete civil chaos and disorder will be a perfect recipe for me and my troops to swoop in and establish law and order through theocratic marshal law.
  5. With the help of my trusty Kurdish buddies, I will have a 2/3rds majority when it comes to assembling my cabinet.
  6. In the meantime, I will continue to organize social networks wherever I can, so when people go to a hospital, a school or get food aid, they will think "Shi'ite".  In the meantime, I will attack American trains and convoys bringing humanitarian aid.  I also will blow up a few UN buildings and Red Cross workers just to make sure there is no competition.
  7. I will be fairly tolerant of Sunni Islam for now but I will lay in a good stock of veils and liquor-smashing hammers for a good old fashioned Sharia party later on.
  8. I will drink a lot of tea with my homeboys in Tehran, who will be quite useful when we form our natural alliance with them in the future.  Together with Iran, we will have an alliance that the Israelis will be hesitant to attack.
  9. I will send instigators into surrounding Arab countries to invite every hooligan in sight to come wreak a little chaos in Iraq.  Remember, the more the Americans suffer, the more they will oppress the Sunnis.
  10. I will find and kill Saddam Hussein and will keep his head frozen in a little box which will be used for my election campaign.
  11. And finally, I will get as many of my men on the Iraqi Council for now so that I can consolidate my network of political players for when the time is right.

  So far, "my" plan seems to be on track!

  p.s. Just the mention of Turkish troops unifies the people of Iraq against America!

  Mr. Bush, you are a Shi'ite genius!

  -Soj

  by Soj on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:36:42 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Now if the democrats in Congress could get some of that backbone...

  Though it wouldn't surprise me if the Republicans redistrict Daschle over to the Iraqi Council so that it becomes more docile.

  by Lord Wagram on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:50:53 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Nobody's mentioned that all this hullabaloo is happening the week that Flight Suit Boy told us that the reason we're fighting (NUMBER 731) is to cause a tidal wave of Democracy to wash over the Middle East. My assumption is that once we replace this puppet "Council" with another puppet Council and get them to rubber stamp the "Of ExxonMobil, By Bechtel and For Halliburton" Constitution, THEN we'll see some REAL Democracy....and the Diebold voting machines choose....CHALABI!  (drum roll)

  by planetniner on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 03:58:39 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    I thought it was interesting that right after Bush tells all the poor little backwards people of the middle east that they need to rise up against the tyrants that rule them, somebody goes and blows up Saudi Arabia.  Guess they really are listening to him.

    by SW on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 04:32:32 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  I think those on the IGC are suddenly realizing that the US is going to cut and run.
  And that there are many lamposts in Baghdad.
  Better save one Blackhawk for Chalabi so the neocons can save him for another day

  by Bill on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 04:06:11 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Has not the council been consistently urging the US to give them more of the action, more of the responsibility for contracts, security, etc?  And we diss them?  Is there anything Team Bush touches that it does not destroy?

  by BobNJ on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 04:29:03 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Why do the American puppets hate America?

  by praktike on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 04:45:32 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Playing with matches. These guys are totally insane.

  "the Shiites on the council likely know more about the CPA than the best-informed Sunni guerillas"
  Indeed, Kos. The SCIRI being in the Council, what people fail to realise is that they could literally decapitate both the IGC and the CPA if they really wanted to, something Sadr (not being in IGC) couldn't do as efficiently as Hakim could. The Shiites didn't do it so far because it would mean instant civil war, and they hope to get a good chunk of power without having to go to such a move. If Bremer (or a higher Bushist authority) decides to handpick a strongman, they won't be as reluctant.
  

  by Clueless Joe on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:02:28 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  I'd love to see full out rebellion in Iraq. I think about 2 months of that and the US would be out and control would be returned to the Iraqi's.

  It would also reduce the man power available to the US army which is another good thing, it would drive up the deficit requiring the US to spend more money on debt control than arms.

  So all in all I like where this is heading, so sorry USA, but I support better immigration laws in Canada so hopefully you guys can come up here.

  by morph on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 05:18:39 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    I'd love to see full out rebellion in Iraq.  

    Just what exactly would you love about it, Morph?  The addition number of coalition force personel brought home in body bags?  The added chaos that the rebellion would cause and the resultant harm its bound to do to the Iraqi people?  And I can't see how reducing American military readiness can do any any good especially if a real threat breaks out somewhere else.  Since these are three of the reasons I was against the war in the first place I can only conclude that you are objectively pro-Bush.

    by fabius on Thu Nov 13, 2003 at 11:08:25 AM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Good points, kos.

  However, there is still a pot of $87 billion to be distributed. It certainly seems to me that the SCIRI is waiting to see how it is distributed before judging when to rebel.  

  by Manish Ghosh on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 06:01:47 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  What if the council wakes up one day and says, "Forget about a democracy.  We'll do something else."  What will happen then?  Can we force them to put a model of Washington, D.C. in Baghdad?  The administration assumed Iraq would want a democracy.  I wonder if this will happen at all.

  by Dr Van Nostrand on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 06:38:14 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Folks, Iraq is not going to be broken up.  Even under the most dire scenarios that would never happen.  Just as Turkey would oppose any independent Kurdish state, Saudi Arabia would be equally opposed to any independent Shiite state because Saudi Arabia has a sizable Shiite minority.

    Worst case scenario if the US cuts and runs and Iraq descends into chaos and civil war?  You would have Turkey invading from the North to protect Turkish interests and Iran invading from the East to protect Iranian and shiite interests.  You'd probably also have the Saudi's and Syrians getting involved too and the place would start looking more like Lebanon, or even the Congo.  But you won't ever see 3 independent nations emerging out of Iraq.

    The Yugoslav example is completely different.  Slovenia, Bosnia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Croatia.  Those were all separate states in a Yugoslav federation that was formed out of the pieces of the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires.

    by texasdiver on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 07:25:14 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  geoduck and oofer,

  Iraq isn't Yugoslavia. Period. I've been studying the former Yugoslavia for over 10 years, and have just started studying Iraq. I'm not seeing the similarities. Every country is an artificial country is some way, they're not all Iraq.

  And for any possible partition: Perhaps it might work. But not only will Turkey not want an independent Kurdistan, Iran won't want one either. Also, partition doesn't really seem to work, if the partition is caused by war. It creates another set of problems. Check out Robert Schaeffer's Warpaths: The Politics of Partition. The history of partition isn't a pretty one. There are options other than partition.

  Iraq had its own problems, and the incompetence of the Whistle Ass administration is compounding many of those problems, as well as creating new ones. I didn't think that it would be this bad, that they would be this craven, clueless and idiotic. I should have known but sometimes I'm still an optimistic person. Almost everything that this Admin does in Iraq reinforces the impression that it never cared about democracy, and I see no end to that.

  I think that Iraqis are capable of some form of democracy, but it's one that they'll have to find on their own. But we don't seem to allow them even small steps toward liberty and democracy. We show them no trust, no faith, and they're very, very well aware of that.
  

  by Anon in Ohio on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 07:42:35 PM PDT

  •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

    Anon in Ohio
    "Iraq isn't Yugoslavia. Period. I've been studying the former Yugoslavia for over 10 years, and have just started studying Iraq. I'm not seeing the similarities. Every country is an artificial country is some way, they're not all Iraq."

    Yes this is true. Iraq is not Yugoslavia. China is not Japan. Vietnam is not Cambodia. I appreciate that you have studied Yugoslavia, and I surely know less than you do about Yugoslavia. I mean it.

    On the other hand, when these two countries are viewed from a tribal aspect, there do seem to be similarites of form and substance. Were not these two countries held together by strongmen? Have not Croats and Serbs been at each other's throats from some time now? doesn't it seem vaguely familiar? Oh yes, let's not forget the outcast tribes. In Yugoslavia's case this is the Muslims, in Iraq, the Kurds.

    I know that the details may breakout differently for Iraq and Yugoslavia. And I am sure there are more differences than similarites since you feel that way.

    The Kurds have been in a long and ugly struggle for there own homeland. They have prodigious enemies, Turkey to the West, Iran to the East, and the Arabs to the South. Don't you feel Bosnisans could relate to how this feels?

    The Sunni and Shia are locked in a religious dogmatic dilemma. Now the Slavs are Eastern Orthodox, are they not? The Croats are Catholic, right? To the untrained eye, this looks mighty familiar to what we see in Iraq.

    I won't get into the sub groups like the Marsh Arabs, but there are a variety of tribes in Iraq.

    On to partition. Left to their own devices , are you seriously telling me, the major groups in Iraq do not have deep and longstanding  blood feuds to deal with, and that partition for better or worse would seem, to them, to be a better solution to the quite unfamiliar institutions of tolerance and democratic in fighting?

    Look I am all for democracy, but can you give me one Arab society that is practicing it? Yes, I know some are giving it a road test in some way, but not with the overlay of such tribal animosities.

    Partition is never a 'good' solution, economies of scale and all, but this region has had some type of tribal warfare going on for quite a long time. It is the norm.

    Oh, yes, one more thing. Each of the major groups in Iraq are armed to the teeth, and with the exception of the Kurds, have generous regional sponsors ready to chip in money and material at a moments notice. And WE have absolutely nothing to say about it.

    I would be absolutely thrilled if Iraqis got together and decided to cooperate in a democratic way. Yes there is a great potential there, with educated professionals and skilled labor and a bit of secularism thrown in. Unfortunately, religious power seekers seem to have the upper hand here, be they Shia or Sunni.

    And I have little doubt that a colonial imposition of democracy is doomed. It would have to come from within, and it won't.

    by oofer on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 12:14:25 AM PDT

    •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

      "On to partition. Left to their own devices , are you seriously telling me, the major groups in Iraq do not have deep and longstanding  blood feuds to deal with, and that partition for better or worse would seem, to them, to be a better solution to the quite unfamiliar institutions of tolerance and democratic in fighting?

      Yes, I am telling you this. The differences between Sunni and Shi'ite in Iraq and primarily social, not theological, because when the Ottomans left the Sunnis had the dominant position.  The history of Shi'ite activism in Iraq is not for independence, but for equality.  The resentment in the Arab world generally is that colonial powers broke it up into different countries, and when you talk to a lot of people in the Arab world they're more interested in unifications of various sorts than breaking it apart further.  That's why there were so many protests early in the occupation around the slogan "One Iraq."  That's why no less an authority as Peter Sluglett said he was told by his Iraqi friends that they fear the administration will try some sort of partition that would force them into a sectarian identification.

      by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 01:03:06 AM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        Brian,

        Arab unity, an oxymoron, perhaps. Besides Gamal Nassar, who seriously tried to unify the Arab tribes, we have segmentations upon partitions. Imposed or not, they seem to stay in place within their borders.

        Look at it another way, has Saudi Arabia unified with UAE or Yemen? Or is Kuwait looking forward to unification with Iraq? They could do it anytime. They are not bound by their colonial masters anymore and haven't been in some time. So there must be something keeping them from unification. Oh wait Yemen did consolidate, that's true. But that was after they dis-integrated for a time.

        I am sure Iran would love to have Basra back, but do they welcome the Marsh Arabs? No. You know there is a Palastinian state already. It is called Jordan, and wasn't it the Hashimites who persecuted them to keep power? I know the Arabs talk a good line, but they don't DO  unification very well.

        Are you telling me that the difference between Shiite Muslims and Wahabis just a social squabble? Don't think so.

        I am not proposing that WE break it apart anyway. I think it will fall apart on its own after we do whatever it is we are going to do. I think we ought to hand a unifed Iraq back to the Iraqis, and as soon as possible.

        It has been a long time since the 'colonial powers' you refer to have held sway. I really have no sympathy for Arab's fears. They have huge financial resources, a growing educated class, the advantage of lots of cultural and diplomatic ties. What have they done with it? Unify? Nope, let's fight the Jews. Let's stay in power by making devil's bargains with the clergy. Let's not lift a hand to solve the Palastinian homeland issue. Let's subjugate women. Let's send the Taliban some money. Let's not really give the people power.

        Another thing, the Shiites are just as interested in power as the Sunnis are. Maybe more so. Equality with the Sunnis isn't why they are creating brigades of fighters. Where's the constitution?

        by oofer on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 02:52:17 AM PDT

        •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

          "Besides Gamal Nassar, who seriously tried to unify the Arab tribes, we have segmentations upon partitions. Imposed or not, they seem to stay in place within their borders."

          You're right...most of the elites in the Arab world prefer to keep the power they have invested in the current system.  However, based on my travels there and pretty much every Arab I've talked to here, Arab unity whenever possible is still the ideal.  Most feel that this will not occur via political union, but the Arab League, for example, remains a strong expression of these ideals.

          "I am sure Iran would love to have Basra back, but do they welcome the Marsh Arabs?"

          Iran is not an Arab country.

          "Are you telling me that the difference between Shiite Muslims and Wahabis just a social squabble? Don't think so."

          I'll grant that Hasa is the one place I'd expect to see the develop of a Shi'ite independence movement.

          You keep talking about the leaders.  I'm talking about the people.

          by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 03:10:20 AM PDT

          •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

            "Iran is not an Arab country."

            How true! However, they would like Basra, wouldn't they?

            by oofer on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 03:55:54 AM PDT

            •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

              They probably would.

              by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 04:11:08 AM PDT

          •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

            Brian Ulrich writes, "You're right...most of the elites in the Arab world prefer to keep the power they have invested in the current system."

            Made certain, held in place and propped up by U.S. military might and support for Israel, which is what really keeps the Arab masses at bay. Remove those elements of support for these autocratic Arab elites, and the dream of the Arab masses for unity and modernity would highly likely blossom forth in a succession of social revolutions. Which, to prevent, is the underlying reason for the U.S. presense in any case. (That "complex web of interests" thing.)

            Still, the dam is filling to bursting proportions. And Imperial Amerika is in its way. 9/11 was but the most serious sign of a structural "integrity" crack, to date.

            We may just have heard another one in Saudi Arabia.

            Iraq and Afghanistan are Amerika's fingers in the dike.

            by Canuck Coot on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 01:59:20 PM PDT

      •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

        Brian,

        "The differences between Sunni and Shi'ite in Iraq and primarily social, not theological"

        Here is what you said in a previous posting:

        "Here again, you're using a false analogy.  Sunnis and Shi'ites are not ethnic groups, they are religions."

        Which is it?

        by oofer on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 02:58:59 AM PDT

        •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

          It is both.  Politics and power relationships in the Arab world are highly personalized, even within seemingly strong institutional structures.  The most influential figures in Iraqi politics have always been Sunnis, as they were the dominant class in the Ottoman Empire, where religion did play a role.  But this power exists today because of personal and tribal connections, not religious dispute.  Iraqi leaders have been from Sunni areas of the country, and therefore all their childhood friends and relatives are other Sunnis.  The history of Iraqi Shi'ism in the 20th century has largely been about getting a place at the table.

          It is true that these rulers who happened to be Sunni tried to break the power of the Najafi establishment; this was because it represented a rival power center within Iraq rather than as a form of religious persecution.  Note that the form this took was to protest the Persian origin of many leading Najafi figures.  (Muqtada Sadr actually tried this same line of attack against Ali Sistani.)  The Hashemites atually tried to incorporate Shi'ites into the state on their terms by using the tribal shaykhs as a ruling class, though I forget what happened.  Saddam did the same thing, and I've been told that most of the so-called "tribal leaders" we see are called by the Iraqis "Shaykhs of the 90's" because no one had heard of them before then.

          There was also some stuff about controlling Shi'ite rituals that's closer to overt religious persecution; however, this has not to date resulted in actual independence movements.  I suppose such a movement could theoretically develop, but it would probably take a state that became overtly Sunni.  The vast majority of Iraqis are secularized and identify more with people of their same occupational class or region than they do their religion, and what "Shi'ite" consciousness there is seems dedicated to taking their place in a united Iraq.

          by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 03:25:27 AM PDT

          •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

            I should clarify here: I'm talking about the situation within Iraq.  When you talk about Wahhabism in Saudi Arabia, you're right:  That's a completely different card game.  I'm less familiar with the situation in Bahrain.  Lebanon might be an instructive analogy, given the ultimate fate of the confessional system the French left behind in that country.

            by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 03:30:47 AM PDT

          •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

            All that you say is true enough. But I do talk about the leaders and not the people because it is the leaders who will create what happens. Look at the crystalizaton around Sadr.

            Don't you think there is a disconnect between what people would like and the political goals of their leaders? And that Between Turkey and Iran, and between Hasa and Najaf and Mosul, there are enough powerful forces at work to cause civil war?

            I just don't see the compromises necessary to avoid it.

            by oofer on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 04:09:10 AM PDT

            •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

              "Don't you think there is a disconnect between what people would like and the political goals of their leaders? And that Between Turkey and Iran, and between Hasa and Najaf and Mosul, there are enough powerful forces at work to cause civil war?"

              I guess I see what you're saying here.  Hasa's in Saudi Arabia, so that doesn't matter here.  I have worried about a civil war, but I don't see such a war leading directly to moves for sectional independence.  The fight would be for control of the state apparatus.

              by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 04:14:47 AM PDT

              •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

                I guess we are going to disagree on this. You talk of state apparatus and Iraq as a unified entity. You continue to frame your comments around the borders of a country that is in real chaos and flux. I see that the Saudis, the Iranis, the Turks, even the Kuwaitis and, God knows, the Kurds will all have influences here that are powerful. If alQaeda is there, that's another match in the box, too. How it all turns out, frankly, is anybody's guess.

                I hope that Iraqis can united. I do. They deserve some peace and harmony. They deserve to live without threat. They have every thing they need. Will they pull it off? I just don't think so.

                by oofer on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 05:00:29 AM PDT

                •  Re: When your puppets don't dance

                  We might disagree.  I see a possibility of civil war; I just think Iraq is likely to hang together as an entity, at this point.  The Kurds might be the exception.  As a possible analogy, I don't think there were any moves toward independence in Lebanon.

                  What really got me going here was people who seemed to be saying that we should be the ones to partition the place.  That is a line of thinking I definitely reject.

                  by Brian Ulrich on Mon Nov 10, 2003 at 10:41:53 AM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  I think that if this was a coordinated and thought-out process to establish democracy in Iraq, this would be EXACTLY the way to handle this one aspect.  When the US instituted the Council, it was widely written off by Iraqis as a puppet of the US.  There would have to be a public and sizeable (but not permanently harful) rift between the US and the Council.  This would be that rift.  Now, people like Kos and people within Iraq will start viewing the Council as a separate bureaucracy from the US, and will treat it as an autonomous entity, which will convert to treating it like an autonomous Iraqi entity.  Then, once plans are constructed for elections in Iraq, all the Council has to do is to allow them to count the ballots and hope the more moderate forces win seats in government.  But this is a good first step to making the IGC more legitimate in the eyes of the world.

  by JR on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 07:55:17 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  It seems to me that flatly refusing to allow foreign troops from neighboring countries into your own is the very definition of a decisive action.  

  by a gilas girl on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 08:20:35 PM PDT

•  Re: When your puppets don't dance

  Adnan Pachachi seems to think that the IGC is doing excellent work and are not at all puppets of the US.

  check it.

  by BrooklynBoy on Sun Nov 09, 2003 at 08:50:27 PM PDT