Daily Kos

My Thanks to All--and Hopeful Predictions for Dean Fans

by deminva

Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 01:48:40 AM PDT

I wish everyone here at Daily Kos happy holidays!  This place means the world to me.  It is a home for me and a haven.  I am grateful to everyone who invests time and thought into dKos.  I am thankful for your energy, your commitment to the principles that matter to us all, your analyses of the world around us.  I am relieved that many if not most of us turn much of our energy outward, too, especially when we work toward a renewal of Democratic principles at home, which must help the world around us.
Here follow my hopeful predictions, as a supporter of Howard Dean, for the caucuses and primaries that will soon be upon us.  My predictions are here in round numbers; what's a point or two among friends?  These predictions are hopeful but grounded in what I take for logic and all available evidence.  

DC

  • Dean 70%
  • the others 30%
It doesn't officially mean anything, but 70% sure as hell looks impressive.

IOWA

  • Dean 50%
  • Gephardt 30%
  • Kerry 20%
Gephardt drops out on the 20th.  The big news is turnout, especially first-time caucusgoers, who overwhelmingly support Dean.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • Dean 50%
  • Kerry 15%
  • Clark 13%
  • Lieberman 10%
  • the rest 12%
No one drops out.  Kerry should, but I think he is the one true vanity candidate in this race, and he's shown a willingness to miss every good opportunity to date.

FEBRUARY 3

SOUTH CAROLINA

  • Dean 30%
  • Clark 20%
  • Edwards 18%
  • Sharpton 12%
  • Lieberman 8%
  • Kerry 5%
  • the rest 7%
Arizona
  1. Dean -- a 10-point victory
  2. Clark
  3. Lieberman
Delaware
  1. Dean -- by a large margin
  2. Clark
  3. Lieberman
Missouri
  1. Dean -- by a large margin
  2. Clark
New Mexico
  1. Dean -- by a large margin
  2. Clark
North Dakota
  1. Dean -- close
  2. Clark
Oklahoma
  1. Dean -- close
  2. Clark
  3. Edwards
Edwards, Kerry, Lieberman, and Moseley Braun drop out.  Sharpton wants big numbers out of New York to give him leverage at the convention and at home.  The big story is of course Dean, who is now 10 for 10.  Clark is Mr. Second Place, and the only question is whether or not he can win enough supporters from the drop-outs to challenge Dean.

FEBRUARY 7

MICHIGAN

  • Dean 57%
  • Clark 30%
  • Kucinich 10%
  • Sharpton 3%
WASHINGTON
  • Dean 65%
  • Clark 25%
  • Kucinich 10%
MAINE
  • Dean 55%
  • Clark 30%
VIRGINIA
  • Dean 50%
  • Clark 40%
TENNESSEE
  • Dean 50%
  • Clark 40%
Kucinich drops out sometime around here.  When does Clark drop out?  Dean piles on endorsements and piles up contributions.  My suspicion is that Clark stays in the race through March 2, Super Tuesday, when Dean again sweeps the slate.  By late evening on March 2, we know our nominee.

NOVEMBER 2, 2004

  • Dean/Richardson 53%
  • Bush/Cheney 45%
Dean/Richardson win 355 electoral votes, including, Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia.

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Permalink | 21 comments

  •  Re: My Thanks to All--and Hopeful Predictions (none / 0)

    I think that if Bush is struggling in the polls late in the year, they will replace Cheney with someone more 'exciting', like Condi Rice.

    by Ray in TX on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 01:51:59 AM PDT

  •  Scoop... (none / 0)

    Inside dope on Dean fundraising: $10-11 million (possibly hitting $12 mil) for the quarter.

    You heard it here first...

    by Bob Johnson on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:06:58 AM PDT

    •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

      I would be extremely surprised if it were that low.  I've heard about that number being told to people, but if true that would have to be receipts to date, not the quarter total.  Dean has had some big $$$ fundraisers, several "bat" fundraising drives, no doubt got a surge of dollars from the Gore endorsement, and will get a few million from the final fundraising push.  I'd say it would be hard for him to come in below $15M, and could make $20M.

      You have the power to change America. Yes. We. Can.

      by CA Pol Junkie on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:36:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

        Well, we shall see.

        I think my source is strong.

        Don't be disappointed.  It's still a helluva' quarter...

        by Bob Johnson on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:38:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

          This wouldn't surprise me.  I've been thinking for a while we'll see a dropoff in Q4.  The bats have been notoriously slow to grow this quarter, and I think some magic has been worked to keep them successful.  

          The support seems to be there, but it's been coming from a new crowd - knowledgable long-time Dems.  These folks are less likely to be sucked in by the bat, and the poor schmoes like me (amazing how many of us are unemployed) can't afford to keep hittin' it...especially at Christmas time.  

          So, my assessment:  The campaign's still growing, but the money's coming from different, more cautious avenues.  We're starting to look more traditional.  I dread the Jan. 15 headlines, though:  Clark matches Dean fundraising!  Clark stuns establishment!  etc...

          Visit Switzerblog now, damn your hide!

          by switzerblog on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 05:36:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

          It would surprise me too.  My source in the campaign said that, while my hopeful guess of $20 million - $25 million was high, it had been a good quarter.  I don't think they'd consider it good if they were heading toward the same numbers Clark's campaign has been floating.

          by deminva on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 12:41:30 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

        I think Bob is having us on.  ;)

        Because numbers being mentioned in December are bigger, even if one discounts some of what is heard....and there are the houseparties Dec 30, I've lost track of how many even, thousands.

        The early word for October ws 5M, before opt out.

        by Marisacat on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:39:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

      That would mean that he would raise less than Wesley Clark for this quarter... and I certainly hope that this isn't true.

      by seby1689 on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:38:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Scoop... (none / 0)

        Maybe.  That was leaked.

        Don't forget... this is Clark's first quarter of reporting.

        Watch his average donation value.  Once he gets $2,000 from someone, he's done with that donor (witness the Kerry and Edwards campaigns).

        Clark will have to spend a helluva' lot of money in the early February primaries in media... much more than Dean.  Clark has little or no organization in those states.  Soley media.

        Read this article from USA Today.

        The last four paragraphs tell the story:

        Clark's aides say he, too, must introduce himself to voters. For that reason, Clark is largely sitting out Iowa and other states that hold caucuses, which require expensive field operations and grass-roots work. He is putting most of his effort into media-driven campaigns in primary states.

        "We will lean more heavily on media," Clark campaign manager Eli Segal says. "We will not have the time to have the kind of deep field staff that others have in place."

        Advertising on television is expensive, but Clark had raised $9 million by the end of November and expects $3.7 million in matching funds next month, the most of any candidate. He has a staff of about 100, roughly the same as Gephardt. That's not much more than Dean and Kerry each have in New Hampshire alone.

        "We haven't made all the spending mistakes everyone else has made, because we haven't had the opportunity," Segal says.

        Dean has spent considerably less than the others as a percentage of his take (51%) by relying on organization and volunteers and fewer campaign consultants.  This has been a frugal campaign by any measure.  That's the power of hundreds of throusands of volunteers.

        If Dean and Clark are even in fundraising, Dean wins.  Clark has to spend a great deal of time fundraising.  Dean spends more time campaigning and less time fundraising.

        Clark is likely to be running low on funds by the end of the early February primaries, even with the $3.7 million in matching funds.

        He will have to saturate multiple states with ads, his campaigning in-state will be limited by his need to fundraise, and he has little or no ground organization in those states.

        If Dean and Clark raise about the same amount, Dean wins.

        by Bob Johnson on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:51:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Re: My Thanks to All--and Hopeful Predictions for (none / 0)

    deminva, I think your prediction is spot on for the primaries and the general, except that Bob Graham will be VP!  Dean's strategy is to end the race on February 3rd, and now that we have the first Oklahoma poll with Dean leading, everything seems to be falling into place for a Dean sweep.  Forget sugar plums... a different vision will be dancing in my head tonight.  Merry Christmas to all...

    You have the power to change America. Yes. We. Can.

    by CA Pol Junkie on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:29:52 AM PDT

    •  Re: My Thanks to All--and Hopeful Predictions for (none / 0)

      I think Graham wants to be VP, but he really hurt his chances by effectively coming in last in the race for the nomination.  If he were chosen, I think it would be one of the most obviously telegraphed selections in recent memory: I choose you because I want to win Florida.

      Richardson would be a "historic" choice -- first Hispanic -- and he would help with Hispanics in Florida.  More importantly, he's a rising star with a lot of experience.

      by deminva on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 12:38:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Hopeful Predictions for Dean Fans (none / 0)

    Kucinich 10% anywhere? I would be amazed. I think Sharpton has a better chance of hitting 10% somewhere than Kucinich.

    by ilan on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 02:58:27 AM PDT

  •  Predictions (none / 0)

    I dunno.  I think a Dean primary sweep is unlikely, especially if others drop out with an ABD strategy.  I'd say Clark's probably going to win at least a couple of the Southern states in that strategy-- I wouldn't be surprised to see him carry much of the Old South, and maybe Arizona, NV, and the like.  

    I still think/hope it'll be a Dean victory, but I really doubt it'll be a cakewalk.

    Read James Loewen's "Sundown Towns"!

    by ChicagoDem on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 03:04:15 AM PDT

  •  Merry XMass (none / 0)

    Merry XMass Deminiva. I've enjoyed reading your comments these many months.

    by Mike S on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 04:13:24 AM PDT

  •  Re: Dean's Frugality (none / 0)

    I think the bat will pick up a bit as some of us get holiday bonuses and gift money. Also, no one can really estimate yet how much snail-mail is coming in and how much is lying uncounted in Santa's Mailbag. My estimate: 16 million, 4-5 in last minute receipts.

    Not only that, but I think as January progresses and tax refund time gets near, they may be planning a second "Keep us Going" bat to take care of early primaries.

    Dean's legendary frugality is paying off, isn't it? He has money to spare,so he doesn't have to do a dramatic end of year push for funds. If he wasn't flush in saved money, he wouldn't have set the bat so low: $1.5 million by December 31st. And no word from the blog that suggests he has to cut back anywhere for any reason either, so I think he's set.

    A Crushie for Democracy

    by CarolDuhart on Thu Dec 25, 2003 at 09:48:53 AM PDT

Permalink | 21 comments