The tentative delegate slates are now public for the March 2nd presidential primary in New York.
Why is this important? Well, besides the huge number of delegates available in New York that day (236 total; another 49 "unpledged" superdelegates come from NY for a total of 285 total delegates), New York is notoriously difficult in terms of ballot requirements. Candidates have to get signatures not only at the state level, but in each of the 29 congressional districts, to be eligible to get delegates at the district level. (Not a small number of signatures either--about a thousand per district--and registered Democrats only, thank you.) So a candidate who gets enough signatures to make the statewide ballot (where 82 delegates are at stake), but who misses out in some districts misses the chance to get the delegates available (either five or six; a total of 154 statewide) in that district.
In fact, only one candidate of the nine on the statewide ballot managed to fill out all 154 delegate slots. And you're guessing wrong if you think you know who it is...
No, not Dean. As it turns out,
Edwards was the only candidate on the statewide ballot to fill in all 154 delegate slots statewide. (New York must have had more trial lawyers than we thought.) This gives him an advantage over most other candidates in that he'll be on the ballot in some districts where they are not. This, of course, assumes that he can make it to March 2 without dropping out due to lack of support or cash. If he doesn't, his folks won't be on the ballot (or, if he drops out after ballots are printed, his line will be blocked on the machines--and yes, New York still mostly uses the big clunky lever machines, which at least make overvotes impossible), and all that signing will be for naught.
It may have looked strange above to say "his folks" would be on the ballot. And, yes, they will be. New York actually has dual primary elections on March 2, one preference line for the statewide delegates, and then listings of delegates for each candidate at the congressional district level. Delegate counts are still determined district-wide, but the delegates who get the most votes for a candidate are the ones who actually get to go to Boston. So if Dean wins two delegates (out of five) in one district, Clark two, and Sharpton one, the two Dean delegates who got the most votes in the district would be elected, along with Clark's top two and Sharpton's top vote-getter.
Delegates may also be local officials, so name recognition is a factor at times; some prominent names on the ballot will be discussed below. Name recognition was more of a factor until the 1980s, when delegates' names were on the ballot, but without any indication of whom they backed! This meant you had to remember whether Mr. Swiatek backed Dukakis, Gore, or Jackson, say, not an easy feat by any means with several delegates to elect.
Dean just missed on perfection by filling 153 of 154 slots, missing one delegate in the 9th district (stretching from central Queens to the Far Rockaways in Brooklyn). He does, however, have an alternate there, so if the Dean folks did win all the delegates there, they do have five people on the ballot. (And, yes, we have to vote for one alternate per district too.) He'll get to March 2 with no problem; the main question is who will be left as opposition.
Every other candidate will not have delegates in at least two congressional districts. Clark came up with full slates in 25 districts, finished one (the Buffalo-Rochester "phone reciever" 28th) with an alternate, came up one delegate short in the 12th (NW Brooklyn with a dash of lower Manhattan), and missed out completely on the 16th (southern Bronx) and 23rd (North Country, stretching from Watertown to Plattsburgh). His total is 142 delegates plus that alternate, so he's short 11 delegates in all.
Like Clark, Gephardt came up short on delegates in the 12th (only three of five). He also filled out five districts with alternates: the 3rd in central Nassau County, the 18th in Westchester County, the 19th in the southern Hudson Valley, the 25th around Syracuse, and the 29th which stretches from Elmira to the southern Rochester suburbs. Three largely rural districts, the 22nd along the Pennsylvania border, the 23rd, and the Utica-to-Binghamton 24th shut Gephardt out. His total was 132 delegates plus five "filling-out" alternates, making him short 17 overall.
Kucinich missed out on six districts: the 4th in western Nassau County, the 6th in southern Queens near JFK Airport, the 9th and 10th in Brooklyn, the 16th, and the 26th stretching from suburban Buffalo to suburban Rochester with a lot of rural folks in between. He came up short on delegates in the northern Queens-northern Nassau 5th, the Queens-with-a-dash-of-Bronx 7th, and the 12th. His total is 117 delegates plus an alternate, bringing him short by 36.
What does it say about Kerry's organization that it filled fewer slots than Dennis, despite the fact that the Kucinich folks probably had to borrow money to afford petition copies? He came up one delegate short in the 12th and missed eight districts completely: the 2nd in western Suffolk County, the 4th, the 11th in Brooklyn, the 16th, the 20th in the northern Hudson Valley, the 22nd, the 23rd, and the 29th. His delegate nominees number 112, so he's short by 42.
Lieberman may be banking a lot on New York (or at least praying he makes it to March 2, when Connecticut votes as well), but missing out on 11 districts isn't the way to win. He did best downstate, only missing the 4th and the Staten Island-based 13th. But north of the Bronx he only made it in three of 12 districts, the 23rd, 25th, and the southern Buffalo and suburbs plus Chautauqua County 27th. Missing on the 26th especially, which is the center of Buffalo's Jewish community, is a real head-scratcher. His delegates total 95, so he's short by 59 (in other words, he can't win almost 40% of the district delegates). By April, he should be out of the race and be in a position to be traded from Connecticut to the Mercury, along with Debbie Black, two draft picks, all of Stamford, and Gov. Rowland's black book of discount contractors, so the Sun can get the rights to pick Diana Taurasi.
LaRouche is still around, and made it on in 18 districts, missing the 3rd, the Queens-based 9th, and the 12th downstate, having a short delegation in the Albany-based 21st, filling out the 27th with an alternate, and only having full upstate slates in the 18th, 22nd, and 28th. His delegates total 91 plus the alternate, so he's 62 short overall.
Finally, Sharpton qualified in 10 districts. Not surprisingly, most of them are in New York City in black and Hispanic districts like the 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th, and 16th. He also got full slates in the 4th, 7th, 21st, and 28th, and a partial one in the 7th for a total of 51 delegates, or 103 short of the full slate.
Braun did not qualify for the statewide or district ballots.
If you want to see the district maps, the best place to look is at this site run by the New York Board of Elections.
The list of delegate nominees is also available at the Board of Elections site. The most striking name on the ballot is Joan Jett, who apparently loves Dean as well as rock 'n' roll, and is on the ballot in the 4th.
Prominent upstate pols include (and downstaters, feel free to comment; you'll recognize folks I don't!):
Erie County Clerk David Swarts, for Clark in the 27th; Cheektowaga Town Board member Jeff Swiatek for Kerry in the 27th; Barbara Pigeon (wife of former Erie County Democratic Chairman Steve) for Gephardt in the 27th; former Buffalo South District Councilmember Mary Martino for Lieberman in the 27th; Assemblyman Paul Tokasz (Cheektowaga) for Lieberman in the 27th.
In the 28th, Edwards gets Buffalo Masten District councilmember Antoine Thompson, while Dean gets Assemblywoman Crystal Peoples (Buffalo), County Board member (Tonawanda) Lynn Marinelli, and Rochester mayor William Johnson. Assemblyman Robin Schimminger (Hamburg) backs Clark, while Buffalo Fillmore District Councilmember David Franczyk is on for Kucinich, former Buffalo Councilmember-at-Large Jim Pitts backs Gephardt, and County Board Chairman George Holt is listed for Sharpton. (He and Marinelli must have some interesting discussions these days.)
All in all, it looks like a lively primary coming up in less than seven weeks!