Skip to main content

I'm going to log off soon here, but here are some initial thoughts.

Way back when, I wrote a series on "how they could win". I pegged Iowa and New Hampshire as the Kerry/Dean battleground, arguing only one could survive.

Dean has enough money to limp on, but by all indications, he's through. If there's something we should all take from this election cycle, it's that the unexpected can and does happen. But for now, Dean would have to pull a miracle to survive.

As I wrote way back when, Feb 3 will determine the anti-Kerry. And I stand by that analysis. Lieberman and Clark are on life support.

So if anyone will stop Kerry, it's up to Edwards. Watch the establishment rally around Kerry to end this thing as quickly as possible.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:57 PM PST.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  wow! (none)
    kos says dean done. you read it here first.
    •  To Kos (4.00)
      Dear Kos,

      re:

      "Dean has enough money to limp on, but by all indications, he's through.

      I know how much that hurts to say, and how much integrity it takes for you, Dean's best and most effective supporter, to say it on a night like tonight.

      You've created a massive political and online phenomenon here. In a very short time, you've surpassed the neo-cons as the number-one, most widely read, weblog. You did that by making it participatory, and by surrendering more control than than Instapundit, Kaus, Drudge, or Andrew Sullivan (none of whom allow any kind of reader comments) ever allowed.

      Things did not go well for Dean tonight. But Kos remains the reigning leader of the blogosphere.

      You have all my support, wherever you want to take this project.

      - Al

      "My truth plus your truth makes a bigger truth" - Mario Menéndez Rodríguez

      by Al Giordano on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:22:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  YES! (none)
        Look at LGF, Look at Instapundit, Look at Sullivan. They are talking heads. You KOS are a mayor. Yes the populus is kinda mobish, but we are a DEMOCRACY in the best tradition of that word. We are a COMMUNITY! We are the FUTURE! and you made US possible. You are the man.

        I'm not ATRIOS, WE ARE KOS (well metaphorically)

        LONG LIVE KOS!

        •  Participatory is not quite the same as Democracy. (none)
          Yes we can choose to participate, but a mayor requires voting.

          That said, I too am extremely impressed with what has been accomplished by kos and the community here.

      •  The number one weblog (none)
        you've surpassed the neo-cons as the number-one, most widely read, weblog.
        I like dailykos, but it's certainly not the number one weblog.  Slashdot.org (for one) has a couple orders of magnitude more traffic and comments.
    •  Kos wrong. A lot. (4.00)
      I love this site with a passion. And I love reading what Kos writes. That being said, I just don't place any more stock in his predictions. I so elieved him when he said Schwartzeneger would not run...and beleived him when he said the CA recall would fail. I believed him when he said Arnold would lose. I believed him when he said Kerry should drop out a month ago. I believed him when he said Kerry was finished. Toast. That he'd never get out of the single digits. And on. and on.
         I'm a Edwards/Clark/Dean person, no particular order. Happy with all three. Will settle for Kerry, but I can't stand him, but will support him.
         I just don't trust the "Dean is through" if it comes from Kos. Especially since he agreed with the media that Dean was angry and a screecher.
         Yet, I still love Kos. :-)
      •  You know, you're right (none)
        Kos has been wrong so many times now, it's not even funny. However, I and we still love you, and aside from this one prognostication (Which I cannot allow myself to belive), I will continue to believe much of what you say. I don't know why, you just make so much damn sense. Then again, so did Dean. I'm depressed.

        Personally, it feels like ever since the 2000 election debacle, we've been in a giant movie.

        by Pluto101 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:34:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Agree (3.83)
        Kos runs a great site, but blows as a prognosticator. Sorry! Dean stays, Edwards stays. Clark stays. Not only will they, I think they should. The longer this goes on, the longer the press covers the Dems, and the longer they can bash Bush. I want all fighting to the end. Hell Kucinich too! Grabbing a candidate early leaves us with no press coverage. That would be bad. I think it is still a 4 way battle. Kerry won two close to home. Dean is surging back. Edwards is going nuts. Clark has some states he can win. This is going to be long. This is going to be good. We just need to ask the candidates and the supporters to stay postitive on each other, and slaughter Bush and the GOP.

        A long, long primary, please!

        Signature Impaired.

        by gttim on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:40:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I feel exactly the same way. (3.66)
        I love this site and it will always be one of the few sites I visit every day.  But Kos, like most talking heads, has been constantly wrong when it comes to predictions.  He's great at giving us up to date polling information.  He's great at finding the articles that are important.  He's great at talking about the things that need talking about.  He's awful at predictions.  I will keep working for Dean.  He doesn't reach GA until March 3rd.  I'm not saying Dean will win.  I'm just saying I'm working for the person who would make the best president.  That if Iowa and NH predicted the president then our presidential history would be very different.  Dean certainly isn't out but the campaign really needs to dig in.  This isn't going to be easy.  We really need to go to work now (not that we weren't working before).  I think Dean has to beat the idea that he isn't as electable as Kerry.  Kerry voted against the Gulf War but voted for the latest Iraq war?  It doesn't make sense and Bush is going to tear Kerry up on these votes.  I'm a Democrat and even I don't see how these votes Kerry's cast make sense.  Even I would wonder about Kerry's decisions and his ability to be a responsible president.  Iowa and NH are over and done.  We Dean supporters are just going to have to work harder than we've ever worked before.  Please excuse my rambling post.
        •  Yeah, but... (4.00)
          So now you think "predictions" are the measure of authority? I tell you, "no."

          I predicted Iowa (win, place, show, and fourth), when NOBODY else did, not in the blogosphere, and not in the Commercial Media... and I predicted New Hampshire (win, place, show), and I'm telling you that predictions do not a leader make. It takes something much more than that.

          Kos is a leader. He's at least had the guts to make predictions, and to make them with his heart. His only prediction errors came from his absolute dedication, to the end, to the Dean campaign and his candidate.

          That he tells you tonight that this is probably the beginning of the end for his candidate is not a "prediction." It is an assessment, from somebody who has more to lose from that reality than most of those who now snipe at him.

          But if you think "predictions" render authority, well, you've boxed yourself into listening to me! Pobres!

          Kos is now more important to Internet history than Matt Drudge. You need to look beyond tonight and look at what has happened. He took the Internet back from the neo-conservatives.

          And since I'm good at predictions, I'll tell ya: I predict that the Daily Kos will now grow bigger and faster than before.

          Any sucker wanna bet against me?

          "My truth plus your truth makes a bigger truth" - Mario Menéndez Rodríguez

          by Al Giordano on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:01:25 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Deep breath please.... (3.50)
            For pete's sake. No "swipes" at Kos. I said some of his predicitions are off base. You call them assessments. I specifically said I loved him and his site. (now i feel like a liberal saying i support the troops, really!) I agree with a few others who said this is the site for up to date news and commentary. But when he makes a call on who'd in/out/hot/not, they don't hold water that often. Though those are just my humble thoughts, I decided to post it because too many people here think his words are like the tablets Moses threw at everyone's noggins, and the depression level on these threads after he writes something like "Dean Is Now Done" is...well. It's damn depressing.

            As critical as he is of SCLM, he sometimes gets sucked into their hell hole.I know Kos was hired by the Dean campaign, that he's a Dean supporter, but sheesh. He can be wrong people.  I've noticed on some of these threads that if say something that may be slightly critical of something Kos said, it's like GOP jumping down your throat and calling you a Hussein Bin Laden Terror Lovin Unpartriotic Why Do you America So Much kind of Terrorist. Way to sensitive.

            I still wish he'd put a poll up on the site just to get a feel for this (for fun): I wonder how many of us think Kerry could beat Bush if he wins everything. I think he'll get slaughtered in the end. He's aa inspring as a discount paper clip on the stump.  I"m still hoping for a Dean or Edwards win. Or Clark. Lily white Iowa and NH can't decide this for us. Not fair.

            signed,
            worthless vote in NJ

            •  Agreed (none)
              Despite Newsweek's poll, Kerry would be killed by Bush.  He voted for almost everything I disagree with the Bush administration on.  Of course this is my "prediction" and predictions tend to be wrong no matter who is guessing them.  And I love Kos and his site!  I agree we weren't taking "swipes" at him.  As I mentioned most of the talking heads get their predictions wrong too.  People should predict less and say they don't have a clue what will happen in the future instead.  This would be more accurate.  The primaries and caucuses aren't over yet.  Let the best candidate win!
      •  Yes, but........ (none)
        Yes, Dean lost but to say he's dead meat is a bit much.  I've been working for months on the Dean Campaign and in New Mexico Kerry's "forces" have only recently shown up.  I'm a big Dem and always vote so I should be on EVERYBODIES mail and call list - so far I've gotten lots from Dean, a bit from Edwards, and nothing from Kerry.


        As I understand it Kerry really doesn't have much "under the hood" in New Mexico, Arizona, Missouri, & South Carolina.  Prehaps that doesn't matter and you don't need feet on the ground or an orgization to win - we will see.


        On prediction - watch for the "tone" to change next week.  Kerry got off without a glove being layed on him.  This will change tomorrow.  Lets not forget that Kerry voted for the Patriot Act, the War, Bush's tax cuts, John Ashcroft's nomination to be Attorney General, and a few other goodies.  


        His record ain't quite as golden and you might think.
    •  Dean done? Doubtful dude. (3.50)
      Dean's done respectably and climbed 10 points from his post-scream polling.  He was smeared and he is recovering.  Kerry hasn't been hit with this yet, but he will.  Watch for Clark to make his move.  Dean is in position to reclaim the lead the moment Kerry's support gets split.
    •  All hail the mighty Kos! (4.00)
      Kos, I must add my voice to the chorus of huzzahs for everything that you do for us. I know that there will be a period of adjustment and weirdness as the BFA contingent figures out how the react, but the power and glory of this site will never dim.

      Dean is a truly amazing man, and I look forward with great anticipation to his keynote speech at the convention. If it wasn't this particular year -- with US soldiers in harms way, and the American electorate skittish and looking for stability -- he could have easily gone all the way.

      But know this -- what you have started here is bigger than one politician, and it will continue to grow, with or without the candidacy of Dr. Dean. I happily anticipate posting, and helping to build the Democratic party, on DailyKos for years to come, and I'm sure that all of my fellow Kossack feel exactly the same way.

      On to victory, citizens!

    •  First Thoughts??? (none)
      Kos has driven off a cliff. Look at these excerpts from his posts. All positive with a vision towards Feb 3rd and beyond. And now Dean 'is through'?

      Thu Jan 22nd
      But Dean has the luxury of time and a solid foundation in the Feb 3 states.
      ------
      Fri Jan 23rd
      The Sawyer and Letterman appearances may have just been the opening round of Dean's "Rehabilitation Tour 2004".
      ------------
      Sat Jan 24th
      the top four candidates... will have a chance to win this thing.
      ---------------
      Sun Jan 25th
      The expected Dean recovery (too little, too late for NH, but on target for Feb. 3),

      Gallup & Boston Herald Polls
      1/23-24
      Kerry     38    
      Dean      25    

      Note: this poll is close to the final numbers.
      ---------------
      Wed Jan 28th
      but by all indications, he's through.

      ............................................
      Kos your post was titled "First thoughts".

      OK, first thoughts. Now get a good nights sleep and re-evaluate.

  •  I disagree that Dean's through (none)
    Clinton came back in '92, Dean can come back now.
    •  what southern state will dean win? (3.50)
      in the primary????
    •  the thing (none)
      McCauliffe hurt Dean.  In 1992 there were at least 3 weeks between Iowa and NH.  That gives a candidate a lot of time to build momentum (and to forget Iowa results).  Dean had the momentum but 7 days was not enough to distance himself from the Iowa results.

      But this is why Dean's position should be looked at as more impressive.  Dean has moved from 3rd to 2nd (yes in neighboring state) in one week.  The Dean campaign should grab the momentum and move to the 2/3 states.  This is so quick that it makes it difficult for the non-winners to gain the momentum they need.

      I'm Howard Dean Fired Up! On to New Hampshire...

      by seamus on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:17:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  after each Dean loss (1.33)
        its always someone elses fault.
        •  you know what hurt dean (1.50)
          that darn Mars rover!
        •  what (none)
          what in the world are you talking about?  Don't be so naive.  I didn't make excuses.  I pointed out that the compressed primary schedule means there will be a different dynamic this year for candidates.  

          Do you believe that moving the primary from 3 weeks behind Iowa to 1 week behind Iowa had no impact?

          Don't make excuses to unnecessarily bash other candidates and their supporters.  The fact is that the 1 week made it hard for all of the candidates to regain post-Iowa momentum that they didn't ahve or lost after Kerry's upset win. This years primary will be different than historical primaries because of the schedule changes.

          I'm Howard Dean Fired Up! On to New Hampshire...

          by seamus on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:28:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes of course it made a big impact (none)
            but less than a month ago, this changed primary schedule was what the Dean campaign was counting on to sweep him to the nomination.  He was going to be either first or second in Iowa, and get a huge win in NH.

            Yes, the compression is going to have a big impact, just not the kind of impact that was expected on Jan 1.

            I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. -- Will Rogers

            by Kathleen in CO on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:34:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Okay (none)
          Oh, I see - it has to be 100% Dean's fault, that's what you're saying? There are no external factors over which the Dean campaign had no control that led to Dean's loss, none whatsoever.
          •  Relax (none)
            Well, to be fair, there are no second prizes in politics. If you don't win, it doesn't really matter why. That's the lesson from 2000, today, and every election really.

            That being said, don't let the triumph of the long-oppressed anti-dean forces get you down. They've been stewing for months, and I only expect it will get more venemous for the next month or so. Feel free to take a vacation. I might, depending on how the next few days are.

            It's been a good run. Dean could still make a move, but he (or his supporters) would have to come up with something truly brilliant or something as surprising as Kerry scoring in Iowa.

            Politics is the art of controlling your environment. Participate! www.musicforamerica.org 1-800-MFA-6835

            by Outlandish Josh on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:35:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  after each Dean loss (none)
          Trippi's toast gets blacker.
      •  Not 3rd to 2nd... (none)
        With all due respect: from last months expectations to now, Dean went from 1st place with a sizable lead to a distant 2nd (even though he might beat the Carville 15 by 1 percentage point).  It still translates to a sound Dean defeat.  

        I don't like Clinton analogies (not from your post, but from a lot others) in any of these cases because Clinton built momentum from nothing (he entered late) rather quickly. He didn't have momentum, lose it, almost regain it then go on to win the nomination (and Clark isn't analagous to Clintion either--the closest maybe Edwards)

        So...what does everyone like better as p/vp?
        Kerry/Clark
        Edwards/Clark
        Clark/Edwards
        Clark/Kerry
        Edwards/Kerry
        Kerry/Edwards
        (sorry, Dean is too much of a liability to be VP)

        •  None of the Above (none)
          Why do people always insist on thinking that the candidate will pick a VP from the also-rans?  There are plenty of other qualified people out there, and most presidents have not picked their VP from among the other primary candidates (Reagan was a recent exception.)
      •  let's be fair (3.00)
        McAullife didn't change the schedule specifically to hurt Dean (I'm sure it was done long before Dean was a viable candidate), but to make the nominating season shorter so that more time could be spent pumping up the nominee. If Dean had taken 1st or a close 2nd in Iowa and won in NH, he'd be the one running the table through super Tuesday. In fact there were a lot of pundits who really feared that possibility. Kerry ended up making the right move, which was basically doing everything he could to win Iowa. Now it seems that whoever wins Iowa (with the kooky caucus system no less) has the best chance to go on and win the nomination. Hmm...I almost think I'd rather go back to having a back room decision on who the nominee should be (as seems to have happened in the PA senate race)...except that we'd keep getting guys like Kerry anyway from the DNC. Also remember that Clinton won when the nominating season was longer. It's difficult to say if Clinton could have won with this schedule.

        I'm still kind of depressed by this. At this point, I'd say Dean's only chance hangs on whether the press will really press Kerry hard over the next 2 weeks (isn't that horrible to contemplate--being saved by the press). Maybe press him until he cracks. I have my conspiracy theories about this though, so I doubt it.

        And then we're going to Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa...

        by JMS on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:51:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  correction (none)
          I meant that his moves ended up hurting Dean.  I wrote quickly but certainly didn't mean to insinuate it was on purpose to get Dean.  McCauliffe had other goals.  But the compacted schedule makes it easier for candidates to stay in longer.

          I'm Howard Dean Fired Up! On to New Hampshire...

          by seamus on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:56:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  No ... (none)
          McAullife didn't do this to hurt Howard Dean. But he did do it to hurt an insurgent - any insurgent. The process was front-loaded in order to create a quick decision and basically steal time from candidates. However, no one expected Dean to raise tens of millions of dollars. No one expected the president to send out military into a war over oil - which envigorated a large segment of the population to support Dean. And lastly, not everyone expected the media to manipulate the people of Iowa and New Hampshire with polls and viability tests.
          It has happened before. It will happen again. But don't give up. Get out there and work harder. Do listen to arm-chair political consultants [even though some of us know what we are talking about] but instead, get out there and work to help your candidate win.
          Lastly, as much as the Dean campaign has created some great techiques in campaigning, it doesn't replace volunteer and paid field organization. You can't win a primary with a computer. You can only win it with the human contact of field.
          Don't give up! Get to work!!

          Politizine: Random musings about politics, music and modern times.

          by radiotony on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:28:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Gee (none)
    You're much more dire than the spinmeisters on CNN. I sure hope you're wrong since I think it will be disastrous for our country.  We'll see...

    "First, let me make it very clear, poor people aren't necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be not rich doesn't mean you're willing to kill." - Shrub

    by kelly on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:00:58 PM PST

  •  Yep (none)
    I think you've summed it up well Kos. Its really shaping up to be a 2 man race between Edwards and Kerry.
    •  Edwards is getting shellacked in NH (none)
      The race is Dean/Kerry.
      •  but Edwards is (none)
        leading in the SC primary being held next week.
        •  Yes (none)
          And Edwards edging out Clark, even by a few hundred votes, will give him enough surge to overtake Clark and maybe get a bunch of his support. Its Edwards vs. Kerry.
          •  And I wonder . . . (none)
            . .  Where Dean/Clark voters might go if one of them drops?

            Might there be another internet savvy, washington-outsider, anti-war candidate that they might look to?

            •  x (none)
              I'm a former Deaniac. Jumping ship tonight. The odds are just too great against him. And yes, I'm one of the kool-aid types.

              If he manages to come back, I'll be happy to support him. My heart is still there... but I can't do this anymore.

              I'm tenatively going to Edwards. I will not vote for John Kerry. In a primary or general. He's a overly pompous asshole, and Bush will kill him, especially on his flip-flop war vote.

              Not only does it make him hypocritical, it also takes away one of the major Democratic points against Bush. While Edwards did vote for the war, at least no one can call him hypocritical. He wins in my book in that regard, at least.

              Dum spiro, spero. Aut vincere aut mori! ABB&K. Sorry.

              by AEDem2004 on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:00:36 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  follow-up (none)
                I'd also like to add to this that I do fear for the Democratic party nominating a Washington Politician. The track record hasn't been all that successful.

                That said, I think of the Wash. Pols, Edwards seems the most genuine and honest, the least "washington-insider"-ish, and is definetly charismatic in a way that will be hard to attack. My mom sees Kennedy in him. While that may not be true to us here on the blogosphere, she's one of those average American swing voters we'll need to win.

                But I'm terrified the left will bolt us if we nominate Edwards. But they'll bolt from Kerry, to I think. Edwards may have a chance to keep them with his economic populism.

                Oy vey. I never would have imagined things turning out like this thus far in a million years. I think I'm getting an ulcer.

                Dum spiro, spero. Aut vincere aut mori! ABB&K. Sorry.

                by AEDem2004 on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:19:54 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  what?? (3.50)
                What is it about Dean's platform and bearing that changed that has led you to change your mind?

                Or were you supporting him because you thought he might win the primary?

                Bandwagon much?

                We support Dean because we're sick of being angry.

                by tunesmith on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:49:44 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  x (none)
                  I just don't see much hope anymore. I will predict today that we will underperform the polls. It's happened twice. Someone a few days ago (wisely) noted that Dean's campaign has too many believers when it needs supporters who will go out and vote. Sure, we all believe(d) that Dean could pull through, but that belief caused people to do nothing.

                  Anyway, I just don't see him mounting a comeback on February 3. I think by the time he could do this, we'll already have a nominee, or it'll be whittled down between two people (probably Kerry and Edwards).

                  I'm picking Edwards because

                  1. I hate Kerry
                  2. I'm drawn to his charisma, which is important in the general
                  3. He's a populist
                  4. He's not too conservative (though still much more than I'd like)
                  I'm just terrified either way. Kerry's a jerk who will lose, but he can spend as much as he wants. Edwards could win, but he's burdened by that god damn stupid decision to take matching funds.

                  We may be fucked no matter what.

                  My eternal optimism shines through this evening.

                  Ha. I'm crying inside. :(

                  Dum spiro, spero. Aut vincere aut mori! ABB&K. Sorry.

                  by AEDem2004 on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:22:59 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Where this Dean vote would go... (none)
              if it could (I'm in Iowa, so I'm done till November).

              Well, let's assume it's Kerry vs. Edwards.  (Yeah, Deaniacs, say it with me: Dean is Done.  Howard's End).  Here's the lowdown.

              They are both way off the phoniness scale.  Depressing when we compare them to the good Dr: TIE

              Kerry is so underwhelming (see his depressing legislative record).  Edwards is so green: TIE

              Kerry came back from the dead (he actually looks like a zombie).  Edwards has been rising slowly but surely: KERRY (that comeback is ridiculously outstanding)

              Kerry has Ted K and the firefighters (Go Fire!  Sorry, I'm still bitter).  Edwards has the lawyers: KERRY

              Kerry is truly not inspirational in the least.  Edwards can give a great stump off his a%%:  EDWARDS

              Kerry has a very long record for the Evil Rover to shred.  Edwards has no record:  EDWARDS

              Kerry is a rich a%%hole.  Edwards is a rich a%%hole whose father was a miller:  EDWARDS

              Kerry looks awful.  Edwards looks way too cute: TIE

              Kerry won't win sh*t in the South.  Edwards hasn't won sh*t yet.:  TIE

              Put your money where your mouth is: Give $100 to the Democratic presidential nominee (whoever that may be.)

              by aleand on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:01:54 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  And the winner is... (none)
                EDWARDS, methinks.  

                I think we are going to need the inspirational and exciting aspects of Edwards character.

                Put your money where your mouth is: Give $100 to the Democratic presidential nominee (whoever that may be.)

                by aleand on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:05:06 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Re: And the winner is... (none)
                  "I think we are going to need the inspirational and exciting aspects of Edwards character.

                  Put your money where your mouth is: Give $100 to the Democratic presidential nominee"

                  Put your money where your mouth is: Give $100 to John Edwards.

                  •  uhhh.... (none)
                    If you are going to quote me back my sig, at least take the trouble to parse it.

                    Edwards is not the nominee yet.  He'll get more than $100 from me when, and if, he becomes it.

                    Put your money where your mouth is: Give $100 to the Democratic presidential nominee (whoever that may be.)

                    by aleand on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:13:50 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  I can't believe you said this (none)
                Go Fire!

                Even with the lame, "I'm sorry" disclaimer, this was outrageous.

                Think World Trade Center, and then reassess your attitude towards fire fighters.

                I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. -- Will Rogers

                by Kathleen in CO on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:10:56 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  wonder (none)
              As a Deanie, if he drops, i'm with Edwards.
          •  Check Clark's lead... (none)
            Clark is now slightly ahead.  For all practical intents and purposes they are tied, and neither will win any delegates in NH.  

            The real story is that Dean doubled their showing, and made real progress in reeling Kerry back in.  

            It's far from over.

          •  But Clark is edging Edwards (none)
            With 90% of the precincts in, Clark is edging Edwards by 700 votes.

            Don't know if it will hurt Edwards or help Clark, but there it is.

            The French have no word for entrepreneur - GWB

            by Sovok on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:50:25 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Things are still very fluid (none)
          As of last week, Dean was leading in SC primaries.  Things are still very, very fluid.  
      •  ha (1.33)
        hahahahahahahaha

        Nope.  Dean done.  He has done the best he could, perhaps the best he ever could have, yell or no yell. After all, he polled 18% in Iowa BEFORE the yell.  That's what drove me away.

        But when will the egos bend?  When will the candidate and the die-hard supporter egos bend so we can get a truly electable candidate?  No matter who is out there, if they just get POed and quit without coming to the support of someone else, then the last man standing wins.  And it remains a fractured and fractious Party with little real hope of beating back the devil himself, or rather the devil incarnate.

        "I wasn't lying, I was writing fiction with my mouth." - Homer Simpson...or is that GWB?

        by Long Haul on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:10:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Give us a real candiate for once (3.50)
          Dean is/was.

          I don't see anybody worth voting for. Back to voting against Bush and the Democrat "leadership" can go fuck themselves.

          cheers,

          Mitch Gore

          No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

          by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:16:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Buck up....that's a "b"... (3.50)
            Screw the "give us"....

            why not be a Democratic leader in your own community??

            Lead some folks to GOTV or Register new voters...

            Run for municipal or county office...even the PTA...heck, go for it...and try for local party chair or statewide office....

            and if you're not the type...find someone who is and encourage them to run.

            I'm sick of cynical quitters...and you're sounding like one...

            let me tell you this:

            every single person I've told that,  "I think you would make a good leader...have you ever thought about running for office?"  Has taken it as a compliment....

            maybe you should start thinking this way yourself.

            2004's the election, 2005's the prize...let'sTCB

            by kid oakland on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:26:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Sound Advice (none)
              Sound Advice, kid.

              My worry is that the idea of people having a meaningful effect within the part of the party that matters nationally was just beaten within an inch of its life and is on life support now.

              Running for local office is all good, but unless your my age, you're not on a trajectory to make a difference in the big leagues.

              It's up to Dean to do something completely unexpected, or for Terry Mac and the Kool Kids to throw us a big enough bone now.

              Politics is the art of controlling your environment. Participate! www.musicforamerica.org 1-800-MFA-6835

              by Outlandish Josh on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:41:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  You know it (4.00)
            People always complain that politicians are just like used car salesmen, but when voters actually have a chance to vote for an intelligent, decent person who has a proven track record, what do they do?  they fall for the same damn thing over and over.

            I'm voting for Dean all the way, even if I have to write his name in.

            •  They just did (none)
              when voters actually have a chance to vote for an intelligent, decent person who has a proven track record, what do they do?

              They just did, man.  They just did.  Twice.

              I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. -- Will Rogers

              by Kathleen in CO on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:14:56 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Votes (none)
                Yes, alot did vote for Dean, but not enough to put him in first.

                You aren't talking about Kerry are you?  Can't be...
                Intelligence - duped into Iraq war and tax cuts
                Decent - push polling
                Track record - mostly voted with Bush or not at all.  No real accomplishments as senator come to mind.

                No, you must be talking about Dean

        •  Angry, angry Deaniacs (4.00)
          It's not ego. The Dems blew me off last spring. A handful like Byrd came out against this immoral war, the rest of them were cowards. I am mad, mad, mad. The Dems have been scared shitless of Bush and Rove until now. Without Dean in the picture, you watch. Kerry will fold. There is no spine there. The energy will go out of the race. It will be Gore redux. The Repugs are happy, I'm sure. 80% of Kerry's supporters don't care about him, he's just a means to an end. There is no soul left to this campaign without Dean.

          Only small minds want always to be right - Louis XIV

          by Jamais Vu on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:27:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  even a win would be a loss (3.00)
            Can you imagine Kerry as president with a Republican congress?  He won't fight them.  He would only slow the pace at which they drag this country to the right.  Even if Kerry becomes president, it would still be a loss for our party and our country.

            Sadly I don't think the DLC will even care that I'm angry.  They still have enough voters willing to keep them in power.  They will be happy if I get angry and then apathetic towards the process.

        •  I'm Hardcore Dean (none)
          And I'm staying that way.  Who gives the crap about the Democratic Party's brand name?  That's all it is.

          If Pepsi sucks and I like the taste of K cola, I'm drinking K.

          If the Democratic Party suck and I like Howard Dean, I'm voting Dean.

          My vote is for me not for the Democratic Party to count on.

          They deserve to lose for backing such a loser like Kerry instead of going with the fire of Howard Dean.

      •  Perspective (3.60)
        NH distributes about 1/3 of the delegates that South Carolina does. Winning all of the votes in New Hampshire doesn't equal winning 40% in South Carolina. And Missouri is bigger still. Nobody is eliminated by this contest. If exit polling holds up Kerry gets 13 delegates and Dean gets 9. It takes 2159 to win.

        "A witty saying proves nothing." - Voltaire

        by apostropher on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:12:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yep . . (none)
      Edwards had a fine showing here in New Hampshire . . .

      What are you smoking?

      How does this translate into Kerry - Edwards?

      Does Edwards have $$ to run strong outside of SC?

      I think the rumors of Dean's death are a bit premature.

  •  Old Yeller (2.19)
    The way Dean supporters are carrying on this evening, I say good riddence to his campaign.

    It's funny -- I used to think that the candidate was OK, but that the campaign was extraordinary. Now I think candidate is extraodinary and that the campaign truly blows.

    •  Let People Whine (3.75)
      Remember what it felt like when the SCOTUS installed Bush?  You have to realize that, for alot of us, we've worked hard for Dean and, to lose to the blah candidate Kerry is a real blow.  But by degrading the passionate followers of Dean, you only lose potential advocates for the eventual nominee, whoever that is.  To be honest, I'm so sick of the nah-nah-ne-boo-boo attitude of the Kerry followers, I'm likely not to do anything to help him if he is the nominee except vote, with a clothespin over my nose.  I'd have a hard enough time to be passionate about Kerry, but being told I'm a loser because I'm dejected, just makes me even more bitter.  Let people vent.  Sheesh.
      •  Don't take it htat way (none)
        I can understand how you feel.  People are fearful and REALLY want everybody to be ABB - Dean preaches this as much as everyone else.  So take time to process, and come back fighting.  Dean's not done yet.

        In the end we've got to rally to the nominee.  

        •  Oh don't worry (3.00)
          I know Dean's not done yet.  I'm just saying that if Kerry wins, I won't be out on the street for him because of all the sour grapes getting passes around.  If it's Dean, Clark or Edwards, I'll be out pounding the pavement (although I'll have to go elsewhere to make an impact since I'm in a heavy Dem area).  If it's Kerry, I'm not only not inspired, I'm turned off by the needling poor winners.
          •  well (3.50)
            I understand your frustration. You've worked hard for a decent guy. And I agree it's not over for Dean yet. His rationale for being in the race is still there and he has the money and the will to go on. And it's not like he has a day job; indeed, that isn't even stopping the candidates who do.

            I'm not excusing the behavior of the Kerry triumphalists. It's counter-productive and stupid. Still, this is how it felt for the past six months for us non-Deanies on this site. I was ready to reach into my wallet for Dean and pound the pavement too, even though he wasn't my first (or second or third) choice.

            Best of luck in the rest of Dean's campaign, wherever that might lead. It's accomplished great things, and it sounds like you were a part of it. Whoever is our nominee, we'll need you.

      •  I believe the dis was to folks (none)
        who insist they'll vote for Bush over Kerry.

        For folks who were intent on "changing this country" - it's unbelievable.

        As someone who stuck with Kerry, with all my heart, through the times when every single pundit was calling for him to just quit with honor rather than humiliating himself, I can understand the feelings that the Dean folks are having, and I don't need to gloat or whatever that noise was you said.

        However, the "I'm going to vote for Bush" is simply tragic.

        I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. -- Will Rogers

        by Kathleen in CO on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:19:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  re:He's Not Alone (4.00)
      For much of December and January, one could read poster after poster at the Kerry blog declaring that they would never support Dean if he won the nomination.  The primaries bring out partisanship.  If you extrapolate from individual anecdotes, I suggest you're in danger of drawing extreme conclusions.
    •  How would you react if your candidate was sinking? (none)
      You must be a member of the media to take the musings of Dean supporters on the night he is getting beaten in NH and his candidacy is in doubt as indicative of where they will be come November 2004.

      Of course, if whoever is the eventual nominee (assuming it is Kerry) does a little courting of Dean's supporters, that would not hurt either...

      Let's all stay adult and keep our eyes on the prize...we are all in this boat together whoever the nominee is...

      •  Actually... (3.50)
        I'm not a member of the media... yet. God willing, someday I will be. But what I am today is an avid Dean supporter. I've given more money to Dean than I can even afford.

        It's true, there's as much whining about Dean on the Kerry forum. I guess everyone has its "I won't vote for anyone else" faction. I guess it's natural to expect that when Dean is losing. I just pray that if Dean loses, they'll come around.

        On a side note, I have to say that at least in Iowa and New Hampshire, Dean doesn't seem to have as much appeal to moderates as people hoped he would. And Kerry does. I'm paying attention to that.

      •  I think Kerry will do this (3.33)
        Look, everybody has to admit what Dean has brought to the race and how so many of the other candidates have been influenced by his message and the force with which he delivered it. I've never totally understood the strong animosity between some in the Dean and Kerry camps. Sure, there were some petty remarks made by online supporters but otherwise, I mean, they both have strong and weak points, they're politicians. Neither one wants to alienate the supporters of the other, although a case might be made for longtime Democrats probably feeling rather put off by Dean's constant attacks on the party itself.

        That said, check out one of Kerry's recent events in New Hampshire, I'm sure CSPAN has a batch on their website.  He's quite good during the Q & A, a sound knowledge of the issues, very clear and practical - I attended one recently and was super impressed, particularly on foreign policy, which is perhaps the biggest issue for me in this race.  He does come off well in this format and was actually pretty funny and good humored.  I'm still a fan of Dean but I was and am rather disappointed by his tendency to be a bit one-note on the foreign policy questions - not that he lacks the knowledge, but you don't hear a lot of it in the message.

        Supporting the establishment of a cabinet-level Department of Civility..

        by daria g on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:03:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think Kerry will do this (none)
          I think he started tonight, but with the ill feelings these past few days between he and Dean publicly, it was perhaps too soon for him to actually acknowledge the fact (and it is a fact) that Dean in this race has made Kerry a much better candidate.

          Tonight he said that he wanted to thank the young people who have been involved in all of the candidate's campaigns, and that he hoped that they will continue to be involved in political activism and such.

          This will heal, but it will take a while.  Hey, maybe that's why Terry McA wanted a nominee early - to allow for that healing.

          I belong to no organized party. I am a Democrat. -- Will Rogers

          by Kathleen in CO on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:28:54 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks for the link (none)
      I read the first half dozen posts, and I agree with most of them. For anyone who senses Dean's potential, Kerry is a very poor candidate.

      The only thing in American politics that interests me right now is what Dean will decide to do.

      •  Decide to do? (3.50)
        What is there to decide?

        How about:

        • campaign in NM, AZ, etc and concentrate there.
        • keep the money flowing in from the Deanies.
        • keep building momentum and getting message out.
        • keep the attacks on Kerry and Edwards for plagerizing his platform.
        • keep fighting the good fight.
        Is there any doubt that Dean is in this until at least California and New York?

        Gonna Fly Now!  Flying High Now!

        Rocky has taken a few punches, but I don't see anyone on the canvas.

        •  Dean needs to go on the offensive (none)
          Next week won't be IA. It will be 7 states. The only state(s) where everyone will show up will be MO, maybe AZ. Which means it's no longer a 5-person race or 4- or 3-. In most states, it's a 2-person race.

          And that race, Dean can win.

          Kerry is the guy who got fooled by the certified chimp in the White House. Not just someone who made a poor decision. But someone who can't stand up to Bush.

          If Dean can communicate this, he can take Kerry on. If not, I agree, he's done.

          •  Problem for Dean is... (none)
            ...he would have voted for Biden-Lugar and thereby for the war too.

            He too was fooled by Bush:

            (Tim Russert: "You said in January, Governor, 'I would be surprised if [Saddam Hussein] didn't have chemicals and biological weapons'."
            Dean: "Oh, well, I tend to believe the president. I think most Americans tend to believe the president.")

            Kerry/Edwards'04! Bring it on!

        •  Dean looked cheerful on NBC (3.00)
          He still has something to lose, and will keep on being a normal candidate for a while, anyway. But I was also thinking about what he might decide to do if it becomes clear he won't get the nomination. He might have some really interesting idea up his sleeve, and he could get media attention for it.

          For one thing, he could be to Kerry what McCain is to Bush--a supporter, but also a thorn in his side; Kerry would always have to wonder what Dean might say or do. Of course, that wouldn't as good for the U.S. as Dean becoming President, but it would be better than Dean just fading back into the Vermont hills.

          •  your post was fine . . (none)
            . . .until you equated Dean being an agitator, contrarian to being President.

            Weak.

            •  That's Plan B (none)
              Agitators have a noble place in American history. Martin Luther King was an agitator. Here's a passage from Dean's interview with Larry King (on Blog for America):
              I'm still determined to change the country and we've got a lot of people out there who want real change in America.
              And even more significant:

              Larry: Do you have to do -- do have you to win two or three states next week? Logically?

              Dean: No, all we have to do is keep the support, the enormous support of the grassroots behind us. We've raised a lot of money this week over the internet, more than has been reported than the other candidates. We intend to change this country. We're not in this just to change presidents. We want to change America. I want to give America back to ordinary working families again from a power structure in Washington that's really taken is from them. George bush thinks corporations are more important than people and I don't.

              Dean has been saying this all along, and the media figured it was just campaign boilerplate. But what if it isn't? What if he intends to keep on trying to change America even if he doesn't get the nomination?

              I know that I will continue to support him, and will continue to donate until I max out--this will take me until April, probably, so I hope he stays in at least until then.

      •  Dean (3.83)
        For anyone who senses Dean's potential, Kerry is a very poor candidate.

         I'm not saying Dean is going to get the nomination, but Kerry is a disaster waiting to happen.   I don't even think you have to have an "ABK" movement (which is immature).  Kerry is standing on a castle in the air.  Every issue in the exit polling that mattered to voters has nothing to do with him.   I think Edwards is going to have him for lunch, in that superficial way that Washington pols lunch on each other.

        I was very disappointed that Dean's actual performance didn't live up to the glowing exit polls from today.  It's a great night for Kerry and the status quo - not a great night for people who value political courage, backbone, and honesty.   It was a good night for Dean's New Hampshire team, all things considered -- not good enough to win, or be a real strong second, sadly.

        I don't share the view that anything's all over for anybody.   I'm not saying this to shore up phantom expectations for Dean or for anybody.  But this is a party and a country that is still embroiled in the process of deciding what it is they really want their future to be.  There is no reason for anyone to drop out -- if they can raise the money -- if they can continue to stand for something and hopefully gain a few supporters along the way, and try to win delegates.  I'd like to see Dean get to the convention with his delegates.  I'd like to see a brokered convention.

        If this sounds like faint praise, it isn't.  For me, there is no other choice but Howard Dean.  It is a no-brainer for me.  I keep reassessing it, wondering if I am barking up the wrong tree, and in the end I just see no other alternative.  Everyone's thinking of November; for me, the important time is the here and now.  

        So, I can't say I agree with Kos on this one.  

        •  I always have this problem (none)
          I'm a third of the way down the thread and I find a post I feel I must respond to.  That means unless I can successfully use my back button, I will lose all that nice red that indicates a post that was "new."  Oh well..

          NYCO  I agree with you that Dean is the one candidate I could wholeheartedly support.  I also agree that Kerry is a disaster waiting to happen.  But I will also acknowledge that paired with Gephardt he could actually win, IF Bush continues to crater.

          Here's where I think I agree with Kos.  If The expectation had remained that Dean might well finish 3rd, and at best would be a distant second, then there might be some comfort to the fact that he cloberred  both Clark and Edwards, and narrowed his margin against Kerry.   But part of this is the expectations game  -  Dean himself was saying last night that he might win, that it was going to be very cloe.  A doulbe digit loss blows that out the barracks bag.   And that becomes the meme.  Sure, he goes on, but the press attention leaves him.  It will now be on Kerry to fully vet him, and he may take some hits.   And now it will be 'can anyone stop Kerry" and will give far more attention to Edwards and Clark.   I do think Edwards can tap into his own money, and may see some support quietly from the Big Dog, whom as I've said multiple times probably thinks kerry would be a disaster for down-office races in the South.  Clark has already pre-bought ads in many of the states, and if he does sneak by Edwards, while weakened, can still stick around.   Unfortunately, if they both stick, everyone could suffer and Kerry come close to running the table next week and then it would be over.  

          I love the thought that our politics could be different.  But let's be honest -  when push came to shove we became a very conventional campaign in a lot of ways, and that may be when the fire started to go out.  

          But what do I know?    And now I will go et ready to teach tomorrow, for the first time since Friday.  We may have a delay, but we will have school.

          i m a teacher & proud of it

          by teacherken on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:57:16 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Down-office races in the SOUTH... (none)
            ...that's IT!  Edwards is my #2.  For one, he inspires me a LOT more than Kerry, and two, he can grow bigger coattails in DIXIE, and with all those retirements down there, we need all the help we can get.

            Even this Deanie understands that.

            What did we do to deserve George W. Bush?

            by republicans are idiots on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:29:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  How to not lose the red *[new]s when you reply (none)
            Just in case you aren't aware of this, you can right-click on "Reply to This" and then click on "Open in New Window." This will open up a new window for you to reply in while leaving the thread in the original window intact with all the red *[new] icons in place. Of course half the time I forget to do this and end up losing my spot anyway, but when I don't it's really useful.

            As for Dean, well, I'm not giving up hope yet, but when Iowa happened I thought "it's going to be Edwards."  And if it isn't Dean, I hope it is Edwards, because I think he has enough charisma and eloquence to pull it off.

            Good luck with school tomorrow. I got Monday off and half of Tuesday (I work on a government site).

            •  we're closed again today (none)
              which creates major replanning problewms  -  today waas to be the 2nd of 3 days in the library on a major project   -  I have the 3rd day next week, and will have to look a week beyond, but the sequencing of everything I was doing is  now out the window.

              Also, today was supposed to be our first mock trial competition .. we were going up against the defending state champions with a team that is over half freshmen and sophomores who have never done it. .   now we have until I think Feb 4 before we have our fist competition... but we will not be able to get much additional practice in

              oh well

              after I plan, I have decide how much of an effort I feel like putting in on behalf of Dean... quite frankly, even running on the radar, I don't see how he can pull out the nomination at this point .. I do think he can possibly pull in enough delegates to deny Kerry the nomination, but if Kerry wins 5 or 6 next week,de espite not having the organization, I think he will be unstoppable.   So do I put in efforts drafting material to be used by educators for Dean of one-on-one comparisons?  I've got the material, and it could be effective,w/Kerry's record and positions.  Do I go to Virginia hdqtrs and make more phone calls to Virginia voters, many of whom are not yet paying attention?

              We needed to be within 5-6 points.  I'm afraid the Newsweek poll being released over the weekend killed any chance of last minute movement in our direction.  It was the perception, however inaccurate, that Kerry is the "most electable" ...  and we still have negatives that are to high

              What I find almost funny is to see Bill Carrick, who was a major player in Gephardt's campaign, saying that it s was a murder suicide pact basically started by Dean's attacks.  Oh well...

              I think the second we became a conventional campaign we did ourselves in.

              i m a teacher & proud of it

              by teacherken on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 11:41:50 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  workaround (none)
            I'm a third of the way down the thread and I find a post I feel I must respond to.  That means unless I can successfully use my back button, I will lose all that nice red that indicates a post that was "new."

            I was annoyed by that too, but as I read your post I got an idea: instead of clicking, right-click on the "Reply to This" link.  Many browsers will pop up a menu letting you open the link in a new window.  You can enter the reply there, then go back to reading the original window.

    •  No no no, Shane (none)
      "Come back Shane. Run for President."
    •  I wouldn't use those forums as a sign of anything (none)

      Those forums are where the most dedicated cultists hang out.  The campaign wisely took them down for a while.  I was surprised to see them come back.

      That said, Kerry was my #4 choice.  Just another establishment hack, who helped run the party into the ground over the last 6 years.

      Sigh.

    •  Here's the thing (3.50)
      Everyone knows that the campaign and the workers of the Dean's campaign are the best.  All the others are johnny come latelys.

      What has happened is that everyone has conspired (and I do literally mean worked in secret and in congress) to "Stop Dean) and now all those who did it expect the Deanies to just roll over and start working for them.

      Well, if there had been no Dean, there would have been no participation from this Deaniac.  Kerry would have never gotten one cent from me.  Kucinich would have if he had ever had a snowball's chance.

      If there had been no Dean, I would have watched with little concern on the evening news and spent more time prepping for my first kid's birth.  

      I'm not a Democrat.  I have always voted that way but I became disillusioned with them after the 2000 election and the ensuing rollover that they performed for Bush following 9.11.

      Dean represented a change to me in politics.  Someone who finally made sense but could play the game too and do what needed to be done:  Change the system from within.

      Sorry, no dice, I'm not a yellow dog Democrat and I won't roll over for Kerry and the inside the beltway crowd.

      No Dean, no me.

      •  real mature (3.50)
        I will sy right now that if John Kerry beats John Edwards in the rest of the primaries, I will go out and work my ass off for him, because he has shown himself to be a resilient, tough and coachable candidate with a long record of accomplishment.

        That said, I think Edwards will win SC and OK and put the test to Kerry.  I think he's the best man for the job.

      •  Even if Dean asks you, (4.00)
        as his supporter, to help him elect Kerry?

        Loyalty is most tested when our best hopes are hammered.

        The innovation and participation Dean helped inspire needn't wither if he loses the nomination.  That's up to people like you and me.  

        I don't think Dean's gonna just lick his wounds fade and into the sunset if he loses.  He's got too much burning desire to oust Bush and deny his desecrations a multi-decade legacy.  So do I.

        Whether Dean wins or loses, we've still got a country to help turn around.  Dean will help do that, in the best way he can.  I hope you will too.  For both my and your kids' sakes.

        Hear it? The Oracle cries the demise of He-Who-Lies. And the rise... of civil America.

        by Civil Sibyl on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:38:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  feel the same way... (3.25)
      ...about Clark. I've been a huge supporter of his and worked my ass off for him for months.

      I believe he would make a fine president, but his campaign has been a real disappointment. There was/is NO MESSAGE!!! His biography is great, but why was there never a coherent messsage? Time after time he walked into these ambushes, as if they weren't common knowledge. Where the f*ck was his staff?? They should have anticipated this and PREPARED HIM.

      Go John Edwards.

      •  ditto (none)
        Exactly. I was so mad I posted a comment on the Clark campaign blog saying the campaign managers should be fired.  (it was flamed so I took it down)

        Think strategically

        by daunte on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:39:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  EDWARDS!!!! (none)
        I was a Clark fan as well and gave him money and time. But, he's an amateur and we need someone that can stand up to Kerry now. Clark should fold his tent and join up with Edwards for the good of the country. The two as a team would be dynamite and change the dynamics of this whole race. Dean is history and if he can't see the looming disaster of a Kerry ( Dukakis redo) nomination and it's implications for thie world then I feel sorry for him. All he can do now is lose and lose and lose and ultimately humiliate himself.
                          EDWARDS / CLARK!!!!
        •  Get the best 3, even with some role shifts. (none)
          I'm not convinced Dean is history yet, but I like your idea of a Edwards/Clark team-up to go against Kerry.  We'd have some verve and common-folk-connection with that one.

          Downside is both of their limited experience in national office, but that's an upside too.

          I don't know enough about politics to know the best timing to go about such a team-up.

          Then give Dean the DNC chairmanship, to help the stodgy Dem machine locate and harness people-power.

          A 1-2-3 punch.

          Hear it? The Oracle cries the demise of He-Who-Lies. And the rise... of civil America.

          by Civil Sibyl on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:04:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thoughts of a former Deaniac (none)
            I think Dean should throw his support to Edwards, as well as Clark.

            Edwards get the President nod, Clark gets the VP, Dean gets the DNC Chairmanship and helps rebuild the grassroots of the party.

            Kerry can fuck himself.

            Dum spiro, spero. Aut vincere aut mori! ABB&K. Sorry.

            by AEDem2004 on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:13:50 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Ditto Ditto (none)
          Clark's campaign has been abominable.  I blame him for getting into to race so late, but I mostly blame his campaign.  They did not prepare him for totally PREDICTABLE questions, such as the inevitable comparison to John Kerry.  Clark made that tacky General vs Lt. statement.  WHY did his staff not anticipate this question, when I anticipated that question?

          What can we do to help Edwards?  He's a great campaigner.  His main liabilities are minimal experience and his former career as a personal injury lawyer.

          •  Spreading the Edwards word (none)
            Edwards needs help.  The Dean scream siphoned the media attention he should have received after Iowa, Kerry & SOTU.  He will get press on the run-up to SC due to his presumptive front-runner status there.  The debate on Thu will help.  

            CNN's coverage for the last week has included clips of Edwards where the audio sync is 1/2 sec delayed from the video, creating the impression of him being "slow".  Occurred on multiple days (including today) and multiple interview locations.

            When he gets a sliver of national coverage, he gives his 'standard' stump speech in order to catch the largest number of first-time viewers. But that turns off people who have heard it already. It's a no-win situation for him.  If he can get more than 5 minutes, he shines.  There was a Bill O'Reilly interview yesterday that was good.

            South Carolina will be no cakewalk.  Clyburn will likely endorse Kerry.  Gephardt is rumored to be endorsing Kerry.  Sharpton will be in SC to split the AA vote (where Edwards dominates).  Edwards will win it, but everyone will hammer him there to subtract resources from the other states.  One good thing is that Edwards campaigned in both NH and SC last week (after Iowa).

            Evangelism: pass these two links to people who have only been exposed to Edwards through the media.  There's a ton of substance under that style.  AskJRE.com covers his policy platform and WhoTrusts.com is a 37-min compilation of 24 video clips of his candidacy.

            My weblog has several recent posts on Edwards strategy.

    •  neither down nor out. (4.00)
      Truth is, I have no idea which southern state Dean can win. And having been a Dean supporter from the first and still remaining, I'd be careful about handing out the candidate bashing awards just yet. I haven't done any bashing as far as I recall, but I sure have seen it from all sides.

      Amazingly, the level of vitriol seems to be leveled in about the same percentages as the general press, so those of you who have been hauking and spitting on Dean and his supporters, you may want to ask them if you can borrow their umbrellas for a bit. It's gonna get wet pretty quick. What you put out there will come back to haunt you. If Kos is a skewed microcosm...I think the petrie dish may be contminated beyond saving.

      As for me, I just sent Dean yet another check and will continue to do so until I hit the limit -- which should be around March 2. Until he calls it quits, I'm in it with him, because from the first, he's been in it for me.

      Here's my prediction & promise though. If Kerry  gets the nom, I'll vote for him. And anyone in the Duluth, Ga., area come November 2nd, I'll buy the first round of beer to cry into. I don't dislike Kerry, but I don't think he can win. I've looked at his platform, I've heard him speak, and I think that once he moves out of his new England home ground, he's gonna get lost in the old Same Song, Different Tune muzak that lulls middle America into not voting at all. There is nothing dynamic enough in his platform to rouse the independents or the lackluster democratic voters who would rather look away than look at what's happening in our country.

      The demographics will shift and my prediction is that by 2010, if we make it that far, the south will be more heavily populated. (It's poor, but it's cheap to live down here) and the dems will need to win more and more southern states to even break even on the EC. And they'll have lost their one shot at gaining it. Unless something truly catastophic happens under the republican watch (and God help me, it's hard not to pray for it) we are about to cede the union to the right.

      But I am praying, hard, that this country and the democrats and independents wake up and realize that it's change we need and you don't get real change by playing it "safe". I don't care which Democrat is ultimately at the helm, but without one, even if all they do is tread water for four years, the underlying freedoms that make up this country are seriously on the chopping block.

      This is Waterloo, guys. Load your canons and give it all you've got. And as much as you may personally dislike the guy next to you? You're still on the same side.

      I'm not a Democrat. I just vote like one.

      by common veil on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:22:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  God Bless You (3.25)
        ... Glad to see one sane voice from Duluth (I'm a refugee, myself.)

        Everyone that's feeling bad tonight -- go have a drink, scream, dance all night, whatever your thing is.  And when you wake up tomorrow afternoon decide what you -- yes, you -- can do to make a difference.  And then go do it with more energy then you were doing it before.

        Nothing worth having comes easy. And Dean will NOT win if you give up.  He needs you now more than ever.  And after all he's sacrificed (think about -- months on the road away from his family, a thousand lying arrows his back, etc...) you owe it to him to suck it up, stick it out, and fight back.  

        Check my diary, and you'll see I got down on Dean after Iowa, said so, and came back fighting.  Since then, I've donated, written letters, and become something of an evangelist for Dean in my neighborhood.  Every where I go, my Dean hat goes, and I've had so many amazing conversations because of it (meet a few jerks too).  

        Be nice.  Be respectful.  And tell people all the wonderful things about Howard Dean.

    •  I'm going to waste a moment here (3.83)
      answering this crude posting.

      I advise people to check out the link.  Most of the posters signed on Jan 20 and some on Jan 27.
      If you all know who they are, I do not.

      Further, I'll add that for months I hve read the Kerry and Clark blogs.  I don't pay too much attention to the daily bile, Dean hatred and constant delcarations of ABD that have been there (with some notable exceptions) because:

      1.  I have not a clue who anyone online is.
      2.  I acknowledge a highly emotional primary season with a crowded field and what I can only call active work done, at least on the 'net, to pursue and indeed manufacture the politics of division.  Division beyond what exists in the primary cycle.
      3.  I also hve been around long enough to know that what people say on an emotional night, the light of day will change.  But then I have always allowed in life for passion.  Everyone's passion.
      For over 30 years of my active participation in politics and born into a politically active Demcratic family, and voting, all those years, an exclusive Democratic ticket, never once a vote for a R or a R desired propostion or anything else, the only thing I ever wanted was a fully inclusive party.  It slipped at some point from desire to distant dream.

      I've taken a good look at the party the past 3 years, but also for the past 20.

      I frankly took very seriously the animosity emanating from the party for a long time for the established and active liberal base.  I still consider the oddest thing about Mr From and Mr Reed's (I know the difference between DLC and DNC) activities to be the active antagonism toward the liberal active base.  In an election season.

      I am anybody but Bush for president in '04, but following the March 2 primary in California I go undeclared.  Long over due.  And here is a dicey bit of chatter: I'm waiting til then because there is already anecdotal stories of difficulties and slowness in managing voter registration and party affiliation changes.  I hope the party is hearing what I hear and taking appropriate measures now.  

      And no, leaving the party has nothing to do with my candidate's poor showing, tho for Howard Dean I would trouble to tarry a while. He stands or he falls. It is merely conceding to the impulse I have fought, finally unsuccessfully, for years.  A long time ago I promised myself, it would be the alternative result.

      Thank you for the applause. It makes me so happy I could scream.

      by Marisacat on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:53:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: I'm going to waste a moment here (none)
        "I am anybody but Bush for president in '04, but following the March 2 primary in California I go undeclared."

        you disappoint me, Marisacat.

        the Democratic Party is the engine of progressive change in America.  i disagree with you on many of the details of how we accomplish progressive change, but we need folks with your energy in the Party.  in the immortal words of Al Gore, you ought to stay and fight.  or in a more lefty turn of phrase, the people united shall never be defeated.

        hope you reconsider between now and March 2.

        (PS. the Democratic Party is a collection of coalitions.  this means you'll lose more nomination battles than you'll win.  but it's still our only means of collective influence in mainstream America.)

        •  The Democratic Party is a progressive engine? (none)
          Since when?

          Not since I've been able to vote and my first presidential vote was for Dukakis.  If I could vote for Dukakis, I can vote for Kerry, if that's who the nominee is.

          For the past 25 years, the Democratic party has been the engine of nothing.  Kerry continues that fine tradition of standing for nothing.

        •  Work for the energy, don't demand it (none)
          "we need folks with your energy in the Party"

          Then do something to invite her.  Her entire point is that the Democratic party establishment doesn't care about her, but expects her dime and vote anyway. This is on par with the current Democratic stance with the Greens.  Don't give them anything they want, but if they don't vote for you they're foolish idealists who are working to destroy you.  Hey, how about flipping it around and actually earning their vote?  And not by hyping up how bad Bush is.

          I'm not yellow-dog in the slightest.  I like little federal government, free trade, and less abortion.  I lean Democrat anyway because the Republican stance on human rights, civil rights, and the enviroment is simply embarassing.  And Dean pulled me right in.  He says exactly what I want to hear.  Kerry is another beltway drone. . he's Gore, except not as skilled, no draw in the south, up against an incumbant, and with a pre-prepared storyline of being a hedger all laid out for the media.  Good luck with that fight.

          I'm going to work my ass off for Dean and continue sending him checks.  I don't care what party he's in.  He's the right guy.  And if the Democrats, in their eternal wisdom, decide to play it safe and lose, so it goes.  I'm not voting Democrat this year because I'm not putting my stamp on that.  I know that sounds like taking-my-ball-and-going-home-ism or sour grapes or whatever, but I'm telling you I've done soul-searching, and that's the way it is.  And I don't have any illusions about anyone reading this and magically pulling their support from Kerry because I said so.  I'm just giving you another perspective.

          And if you want me back and want me to vote for your candidate, do something to invite me.  Don't slap me around with 'it's better than Bush!'.  That's exactly the reactive, negative campaign that keeps the rest of America wondering what the hell the D's actually stand for.

      •  Stay for us... keen. (none)
        OK. I won't comment about you're going undeclared, but...
        Please don't leave the dKos community, Marisacat.

        You've brought lots of enlightenment hereabouts.  You often perceive things few others can.  Your voice, trills and all, would be too much missed.

        Consider this a personal plea.

        With respects,

        - Civil Sibyl

        Hear it? The Oracle cries the demise of He-Who-Lies. And the rise... of civil America.

        by Civil Sibyl on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:18:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  From and Reed (none)
        Interestingly enough, I heard Al From talking about the NH results on NPR this evening, and he didn't sound super thrilled.  I know the CW around here is that Kerry is DNC/DLC establishment through and through, but it sure sounded to me like From was just trying to reappropriate Kerry as someone the DLC approved of, as he sure didn't want to spin NH as a defeat for his own faction of the party.  Certainly he was happy Dean didn't win, but I sure think Dean's effect on the race has put a serious dent in the DLC's message and raison d'etre - everybody's talking populism and about standing up to Bush now.

        Supporting the establishment of a cabinet-level Department of Civility..

        by daria g on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:33:39 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Nope... (3.71)
    Dean will say...

    Earlier this week I was left for dead, I passed Clark, I passed Edwards, and next time I'm going to catch Kerry.

    Kerry will get roughed up in the next week.  Clark and/or Edwards will dominate the south, and the race will not be sorted out on 2/3.

    All 4 of these candidates survive beyond 2/3.

    •  2/10 (none)
      So, maybe you are right.  Maybe it take the results of 2/10 before we see major campaign closures.  Hey, more fun for us!

      "I wasn't lying, I was writing fiction with my mouth." - Homer Simpson...or is that GWB?

      by Long Haul on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:13:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  You're giving me hope. (none)
      Let's say Dean leaves the radar screen for awhile.  He seems to be doing this with stops in Washington State and Michigan coming up.  

      Edwards and Clark need wins and they are in the home turf.  It seems likely that they will go after Kerry. Does Kerry just stand in Missouri and fight there, or does he try to finish Clark or Edwards off in South Carolina?  

      I don't know.  It depends on the money.  I think Kerry could spend the next week fundraising with token ads in SC, NW and the rest, and campaign in Missouri.  The media whores would then give Edwards the blessing as the Anti-Kerry.
      Perhaps after Kerry has been blooded up a bit,there would the famous buyer's remorse with Dean in Michigan. But i think Dean needs to win, even if it is Delaware.

      I think if Kerry spends the week campaigning hard in Missouri and South Carolina, Dean should leave him alone and try for NM/Arisona.  Perhaps Kerry can get rid of Edwards or Clark in SC?  Then, he is in the glidepath.

      I think Dean should step back out of the spotlight for a little bit (he'll have to anyway) and pick a state to win.  Then, the rest of the strategy will be to build to Super Tuesday.

      It ain't pretty, but it will be interesting.

      Enjoy every sandwich-Warren

      by barr on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:53:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly (none)
        ... what I've been thinking.  Let Clark, Edwards, and Kerry bloody each other for a while.  Hopefully with ample assistance from the press.  Dean can bash Kerry from a distance (he voted for the war, he voted for the war, he voted for the war) while Clark and Edwards go after him as a northeastern liberal who can't possibly win the general election.  

        Then Dean can step back into the fray after the 2/3 contests....

  •  I'll vote for him... (none)
    ...but as soon as it's clear Kerry's going to be the Democratic nominee, watch the establishment rally around Bush to end this thing as soon as possible (if it's not over already). Are the Clintons already making plans for 2008 do you think?
  •  No Subject (none)
    Kerry has won nothing, but Bush, on the other hand, is looking invincible.
  •  Clark (none)
    Clark has only 200 less votes (out of 90,000) less than Edwards.  Why should he pack and go?
    •  Clark's not packing (none)
      He's not.  Just Kos' frustration speaking. And why wouldn't Kos go back to supporting Clark?  Hmmmm.....  
    •  The difference? (none)
      Clark lived in NH the past two months, skipping Iowa. Edwards came in the last week. The momentum is clearly with Edwards.

      I didn't say he should pack it in. I said Clark's campaign is in life support.

      •  Money and Org (none)
        Clark has much more money and much more organization than Edwards in the 2/3 states (outside of SC).   He has had ads running for some time and Edwards has not.

        On the other hand, maybe the point of this election is that Big Mo' counts for more than Big Money or Big Org and Edwards definitely got some Mo' in Iowa.  Also, the media seem determined to nitpick Clark to death, while (for the moment) letting Kerry and Edwards get off easily.  

        At some point, the media will remember that they hate Kerry.  But maybe they will put that off until after he has the nomination sewn up.

        •  It is money and org! (3.42)
          Yes, it is money and org.  Dean had/has the money, but Kerry has the org, in this case the old, failed Party org.  Strong enough to win the Party, perhaps, but too weak to take it to Bush.

          Kerry is now running a very smart campaign and the money will start to flow towards him more readily.  Of course he is riffing and ripping off all his opponents, but thats what a crafty pol will do.  Unfortunately, most of us here don't want a tired old pol, crafty or otherwise.

          Dean offered passion and hope, if "too much" anger.  Edwards offers passion and hope, but with a very warm way.  Only he doesn't have the cash.  So he supported the war vote, that is so, like, five minutes ago.  But now he wants to go after the war profiteers.  And Kerry echoes him.  Maybe that is the nickname we could give him - Echoman.  Clark offers ideas and hope, but he is a political neophyte and I don't think he will be able to "nice" his way around the cunning of Kerry.

          I agree with Kos, it is going to come down to Edwards and Kerry, but I fear that Dean will be his pugnacious self and not yield soon enough to help any of the other anti-establishment candidates.  Clark may yield to reason quicker and more easily, especially if the Clintons get involved and whisper in his ear.

          Or it could be Clark rather than Edwards, but again I will go with political craft over military experience.

          Dean, Clark and Edwards are all good men and they all have the health and welfare of the Democratic Party and the country at heart.  Only one of them can be the nominee at best.  Next week will reveal much.  Stay tuned.  As if we have a choice...

          "I wasn't lying, I was writing fiction with my mouth." - Homer Simpson...or is that GWB?

          by Long Haul on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:27:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Clark needs to learn the game fast (none)
        He might have lived in NH for 2 months, but he had no idea how to play the game.Thus he didn't make effective use of his time.

        MHO, It is too early to pronounce him on life support BUT  it I think it is fair to say he is heading to the ICU.

        He is said to be a quick study. I can only hope this is true.  

        I will vote for Kerry(I grew up in MA, my first vote was for Kerry back in '82 if memory serves me right...),if need be but it would be painful.

  •  Edwards is done as well (none)
    He would have had to place within 10 points of Kerry in NH for it to matter like Clinton did. A distant 3rd or 4th is deadly even Clinton couldn't have pulled that one out.
    •  Puh-leeze (none)
      Coming out Iowa and NH, Edwards has a handful more committed delegates than Dean, and less than 20 fewer than Kerry. This has decided nothing.

      "A witty saying proves nothing." - Voltaire

      by apostropher on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:16:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What? I have to write my own subject? (none)
      That's just silly.  Edwards was a very strong second in Iowa, and placed third in New Hampshire behind two candidates from neighboring states.  Indeed, if you average "finish positions", you get:

      Kerry: 1
      Dean: 2.5
      Edwards: 2.5

      and Edwards momentum is in a positive direction.  And he's the favorite in "the big state" next week.  Edwards is doing just fine.

  •  So much for the Dems (4.00)
    Welcome to the draft and economic obvlion (and/or the end of the new deal great society programs).

    So much for ideals, so much for process.

    Cheers to the Dem establishment, enjoy your trip to the bottom of the Atlantic.

    cheers,

    Mitch Gore

    No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

    by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:04:00 PM PST

    •  Hang in there (3.50)
      We're not done.  I've turned off the tv until Kerry's speech is over.  Wanna see what Howard says and also see the strategy unfold over the next week or two.  I think that it IS important that NH thinks Kerry is more electable even though they like Dean better on policies, etc.  Plenty of us think that Dean is far more electable than Kerry but the NH folks were coming off a massive blitz pronouncing Dean dead.  That will not be the case next week.

      "First, let me make it very clear, poor people aren't necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be not rich doesn't mean you're willing to kill." - Shrub

      by kelly on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:16:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Dean is dead theme will be turned to 11 now (3.40)
        And Kerry is a lead weight into a casket come Nov.

        Dean is the only record in the race that could possibly be defended against the slime machine that the GOP will unleash.

        Kerry will lose and lose badly.

        And the nation as we knew it cannot survive another Bush term.

        Kerry is THE poster child of a vote against Bush, and not FOR a candidate I have ever seen. He is all the worst elements of Gore 2000, and Dukakis in a single, unsightly package.

        The Mass, rulings come summertime will cripple him, his record is shit, his pandering makes him have the biggest target on his back save Gephardt (who is gone) and Edwards is the worst than all of the Dems on liberal policy issues outside Lieberman's hollywood rants and Israeli hawk stands.

        Edwards might be charming, but he has no creds on accomplishing anything.

        The only defense against Rove was a candidate who spoke the truth, and had a real record of achievement. That was Dean, and why I backed him for more than a year now.

        Telegenic, primary mo, money.. all that means shit facing the howitzer of the corporate/GOP machine.

        The only candidate who had a substantive defense was Dean, and the Dems savaged him because they truly are a party of pussies (and not ini the good way).

        The Bush fear in the minority electorate as evidenced by the  reasons given in Iowa and now NH are concrete proof. "I just want to beat Bush so I don't know who to pick"

        That is chicken shit fear writ large and why the Dems are now consigned to destruction.

        Welcome to one party rule for a generation (if not several) if we even survive as a nation.

        The Euro will move ahead of the dollar, and there goes the economy permanently. Welcome to a fallen "empire" and the rise of Asia and Europe.

        The Kerry/Dem establishment coda.

        The poster party of fearful pussies.

        cheers,

        Mitch Gore

        No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

        by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:38:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Dean is toast (none)
          Mitch give it up dude. Your plaster god has hit the friggin floor and is in pieces. But, your right about Kerry he's a death sentence for the party in Nov. Say what you will about John Edwards Mitch he's got what it takes in this TV age to beat Bush. The guy is a 1st rate candidate and as a life long trial lawyer will take Bush a part in any debate. But, he'll never beat Kerry unless Wes drops out and the good Dr. realizes he's caught in a death spin. NH was the end for Dean Mitch it's over lets get behind 1 anti-Kerry that can win in the fall   EDWARDS!!!
          •  Dean ;s candiacy is serious if not (none)
            grievously wounded.

            But Edwards will not make it either.

            Only a candidate with a credible record could compete against the media blizzard do GOP propaganda and doublespeak. Dean was the only one that had it. That's why I supported him and bit my tongue for months about the others.

            Not a "plaster god of mine" but that's the reality of it.

            Dean has a solid, credible, indisputable record of accomplishment on the vital issues of the day.

            None of the others have it, not Edwards, especially not Kerry and Clark would get killed because he has never been elected dog catcher.

            cheers,

            Mitch Gore

            No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

            by Lestatdelc on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:41:18 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  competence (none)
              Only a candidate with a credible record could compete against the media blizzard do GOP propaganda and doublespeak. Dean was the only one that had it. That's why I supported him and bit my tongue for months about the others.

              I have similar feelings.

              I was drawn immediately to Dean when I first saw him speak.  I reacted partly to intangibles, like the fact that he speaks plain English and not Washington-speak.  But a big part of what has kept me in the Dean camp is his record of competence.  He got good things done in his state, and you can see his pride in what he accomplished.

              During the Diane Sawyer interview Dean said something to the effect that he would like to be done with campaigning so he can get back to managing, which -- he said -- he is very good at.  That struck me as a candid and probably accurate self-assessment.

              Dean appeals to me at many levels, some admittedly subjective.  I won't try to detail them all, but I will say I admire him for being industrious, competent, and very much a human being.  He's a guy I'd be delighted to meet any time, and a guy I'd trust with my money.

              Bottom line: I will stick with Dean as long as he stays in.  If he wins the nomination, I'll be overjoyed.  If not, I'll vote for the nominee.

            •  Mitch...It's over...get over it :( (none)
              Kerry is the candidate got it? Lets try it again one more time. KERRY WON IT'S OVER !!! Lets get this behind us fast. Let the man pick a VP and lets all start hammering away at Bush. (the real enemy)
              •  Get over it? (none)
                Kerry is a disaster in waiting.

                You can shove your neener neener shit right your ass.

                If that pandering fuck gets the nom, I will hold my nose and vote becuase Bush is worse, but get behind him? Campaign for him? Donate for him? Raise money for him?

                Fuck him and fuck you.

                You, nor Kerry has earned anything but scorn from me.

                cheers,

                Mitch Gore

                No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

                by Lestatdelc on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 09:05:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

        •  You know (none)
          Mitch, I don't appreciate you calling the Democrats a party of pussies.  And it's not just the deliberately obnoxious use of sexist insults that annoys me, it's the trashing of a party, its history, traditions, and all the people who have been loyal and hardworking Democrats for years. No sh!t we're living in difficult times under a radical right-wing administration. Not everybody wants to respond by trying to fight the media and our own party at the same time we're fighting the Republicans.

          So you know, let me just say that I am sick to death of all this bile just because your candidate didn't get the blessing of the voters, many of whom are just as offended by his constant attacks on fellow Democrats as I am by yours.  

          Suddenly morphing into a doomsaying resentful pessimist because you didn't get what you wanted?  Well, if that's not a chickensh!t, childish, "pussy" kind of attitude I don't know what is.  I don't like to insult people but I find it truly ironic that you're calling regular Democrats some pretty vile names, as if weighing the options and making a rational choice about the candidates is somehow not as tough & cool as being stubborn and uncompromising.  Dude, I took the punk rock out of my politics back around when the Dead Kennedys won a lawsuit against Jello Biafra... when are you gonna grow up?

          Supporting the establishment of a cabinet-level Department of Civility..

          by daria g on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 02:14:03 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  AMEN!!! (none)
            Tell it like it is sister!! Some of Dean's supporters have been way over the line in here. Dean is just another politician , he lost so what!! My guy Clark lost as well. I'm over it. The PEOPLE have spoken and it's going to be JOHN KERRY so lets get with it and stop bashing the living crap out of each other now.
          •  Sexist.. blah blah blah (none)
            Is it sexist to call someone a dick?

            (scroll)

            cheers,

            Mitch Gore

            No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

            by Lestatdelc on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 09:07:02 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Too Early (none)
          Here's the thing -- it is too early and too emotional.  At this point, I'm very uncertain about what I would do if the Dem candidate is someone unacceptable to me.  I lead with my heart but as a lawyer, I often am forced to use my head for strategic purposes.  I'm also used to getting my ass kicked and heart broken on issues that are deeply felt.  Dean is the first candidate in 37 yrs that appeals to both my head and heart.  I trust him to find his way to victory and I'd like to hear what he has to say in the next few weeks.  I do think he can win the nomination and the presidency.  Do not fall victim to conventional wisdom (since when have you before?).  It's important to be realistic but I think even we realists think it's too early for the folks who are, once again, dancing on Dean's grave.  Don't let them get down. I really think there are some interesting days ahead.

          Let's not bring troubles upon ourselves that may not come to pass.

          "First, let me make it very clear, poor people aren't necessarily killers. Just because you happen to be not rich doesn't mean you're willing to kill." - Shrub

          by kelly on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 03:13:55 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  nay, keep up the good fight (3.50)
      I understand your frustration Mitch.  (My main man Dean ain't doin' so well.)

      But we've all got to keep fighting, adapting our battles, and retaining hope.  Especially the most progressive Dems among us.  Especially seasoned and eloquent voices like yours.

      (Even if Kerry becomes the nominee.)

      - From someone who's respected you highly over the last half a year, and who certainly still does.

      Hear it? The Oracle cries the demise of He-Who-Lies. And the rise... of civil America.

      by Civil Sibyl on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:23:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Establishment (3.50)
    The same "establishment" that lost 2000 and 2002.  Oh, joy!  Read my lips: "Four more year."

    Crap.

    Clark won't quit yet.  Dean won't quit yet.  So that fractures the anti-Kerry vote, for now.

    I will have to give the cadaver another shot at some point, but I just don't see him building the across-the-board support he will need in a general election.

    Crap.

    Hard to get excited about Kerry.  The last time I was this engaged in a campaign was in 1968.  I backed McCarthy in that one, saw RFK steal his thunder and then die.  So who picks up the pieces?  Kerr....er, Humphrey, the establishment guy.  Another close but no cigar campaign.

    Crap.

    "I wasn't lying, I was writing fiction with my mouth." - Homer Simpson...or is that GWB?

    by Long Haul on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:04:46 PM PST

  •  Life support? (none)
    Not Clark, at least not yet.  He's still polling well for next week, and Edwards didn't do any better in NH.
  •  swell (3.41)
    And once again the Demmycrats show why the Republicans have been pushing them around, why they're fast approaching permanent irrelevance, and that, above all, misrepresenting, lying, and pandering is what wins elections in this country.

    I've never been so proud to be an independent as I am today.

    I've never felt so sure that real change is never going to happen, and that the best I can hope for is to limit the damage.

    I've never realized until today how little we as Americans care about our government or our role as citizens.

    I've never understood until today how the media has destroyed sensible political discourse in this country by grubbing for ratings, sensationalist scoops, and pathetically lazy and inaccurate reporting.

    Some small part of me hopes that it isn't yet over, that Dean still can squirm through the ranks of Demmycrats that fight him far more harshly than ever they did Bush, and display some sorely needed conspicuous greatness in the free world's most powerful person. But I see now that that hope is becoming increasingly unrealistic.

    Good luck with Kerry, if he wins, guys. You deserve each other.

    •  Independently Speaking: (3.50)
      I think that the media is the thing that's losing this for the Dems, and it's largely because the media's in bed with the GOP. We're fast approaching a time that is eerily reminiscent of the fiefdoms. If fighting dirty's what it takes, then fighting dirty is what it will come to.

      I just don't think I'm looking forward to the way that's going to materialize...

      buddhaplex new york, ny

      by buddhaplex on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:09:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  sour grapes does not obscure (3.66)
      the exit poll data, which is that in iowa and NH, Bush is going down.

      That's what the true independents are saying.

      •  Can Kerry beat pizza? (none)
        Yours is the first post I've seen tonight that points out that Bush has his vulnerabilities.  I could have sworn that just a short while ago lots of people were saying that a slice of pizza could defeat Bush.  So if Kerry can defeat a slice of pizza...
    •  This is an overreach (none)
      You'd think Dean was Gandhi and Buddha rolled into one instead of a pretty moderate politician.  He was an effective governor of a small state.  But he is a politician, as evidenced by the numerous position changes he has made over the years.  Not condemning him for it, but that's a fact, and as a politician that means he doesn't get the Messiah label.  Maybe a better politician than most, but not the One Leading Us To The Promised Land.  

      If you can blame the media for Dean's two losses then you must also give it the credit for Dean's meteoric rise in the previous months.  Maybe Dean is neither as good nor as bad as his press would lead us to believe.  

      Before we can change America we have to change Presidents and Congress.  ABB.  Congress next.  

      Every city is two cities, a city of the many poor and a city of the few rich; and these two cities are always at war. Plato

      by Eclectic on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 06:03:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I have to agree with Kos, with this one caveat... (none)
    Let's see how Kerry fields the media frontrunner scrutiny through the next couple or three weeks...if he is not shot by them or does not shoot himself, then the race is over barring some kind of major Edwards triumph in the south on little Tuesday...

    This does not mean I will stop working for Dean (and with vigor), but I do live in the real world...

  •  Dean supporters shift to Clark (4.00)
    We must stop Kerry.  If Kos is right, it's either Clark or Edwards.  Whatever gifts Edwards might have, Clark will be much stronger in the general, because national security will be a litmus test for swing voters in critical swing states.  Clark is also anti-war.
    •  edwards (none)
      will be much stronger in the general.  Just think of Kerry trying to:
      1. win in the south
      2. Debating Bush vs. Edwards debating Bush.
    •  I'll Back Clark (none)
      As an independent-cum-Dean-Supporter, I'd be glad to give Clark my vote. If he is able to hobble along to New York...

      buddhaplex new york, ny

      by buddhaplex on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:10:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Edwards? (1.50)
      He voted for NCLB, voted for Iraq and is unapologetic about it, voted for Patriot and rates a 46% on the HRC scorecard and doesn't even know what DOMA is.

      Unless some miracle makes Dean viable, Clark would need some other more extravagant miracle and is the only one left I could even stomach working for.

      Kerry will get my vote, because Oregon has vote by mail.

      But the Dems will never see a penny from me ever again unless Dean (or another Dean comes along, say when I am 65+ at the current rate).

      I will help the Greens locally and statewide where appropriate.

      The Democrats have shown themselves to be useless pathetic, apathetic losers and deserve a quick death as a party.

      cheers,

      Mitch Gore

      No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

      by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:13:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Truth Patrol (none)
        46% on the HRC scorecard

        More "John Edwards Eats Gay Babies."  He had a 100% rating from the Human Rights Campaign in the last Congress.

        •  again (none)
          i don't like these "candidate X has X support in X interest group."

          it's how you lead.

          edwards is hardly a leader on lgbt rights.

        •  There was nothing to vote for or against (none)
          There was notign of susbtance really to rate the HRC on. The GOP has set the legslative agneda for the past 6 years.

          I know my GLBT issues backward and forewards.

          So shove your "truth patrol" shit.

          cheers,

          Mitch Gore

          No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

          by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:42:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  A lie is a lie is a lie. (none)
            There was notign of susbtance really to rate the HRC on.

            Perhaps you should have said that, instead of lying, Mitch.

            •  The HRC rating of 46% was not last Congress (none)
              Which is what the previos post was carping.

              But as trapper would say "whatever"... have a nice evening, I am off to dinner with the family now.

              cheers,

              Mitch Gore

              No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

              by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:57:04 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Which congress, then? (none)
                Because the HRC has only rated Edwards' twice - 71% in the first, and 100% in the second.  If his cosponsorship of the Employment Nondiscrimination Act, Local Law Enforcement Enhancement Act, etc., are any indication, he's going to get 100% in this Congress, too.
                •  My bad (none)
                  Was mixing up the voted against Dem party on votes with his HRC rating, which is stil lthe lowest of all the candiates on the Dem ticket.

                  cheers,

                  Mitch Gore

                  No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

                  by Lestatdelc on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:47:04 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Meme 2: "He's like Jesse Helms!" (none)
                    I'm not sure where you get the 46% "voted against Dem party on votes," but a look at his voting record shows that he's most often voted with Democrats, not against them.  Then there's always the CQ analysis that showed he had most often voted against Bush.

                    As far as his HRC rating is concerned, it is worse than the other Democrats.  Of course, you'll notice that the reason for that was his failure to cosponsor the Employment Nondiscrimination act in the first Congress (an error he's since remedied) and a failure to consponsor the Local Law Enforcement Enhancement At (also remedied).  Notably, in the case of the latter, he voted for the Kennedy-Smith amendment, which had a similar effect, that same congress.

                    But yeah, that John Edwards: he eats gay babies!

          •  GLBT issues (none)
            Being a kingpin on GLBT issues may win you Massachusetts, but it won't do a damn thing to get you to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.  Or is Andrew Sullivan going to lead his army of Log Cabin Republicans into the arms of John Kerry?

            The Dems are playing to win the NBA Atlantic Division, just waiting to get the crap beaten out of them in the playoffs.  Putting Kerry at the top of the ticket proves it.

            But it's not too late!  Feb. 3 is another day!

      •  Sour Grapes (none)
        It must be hard to be so incredibly self righteous. Did you often pick up your ball and go home when the other little boys beat you in stickball?
        •  Nope (none)
          I don't I didn't in 2000.

          But have fun in your delusions that any of the remaining (save "maybe" Clark) stands anything remotely of a chance against Bush.

          Only a cnaidate with a real record and the ability to speak directly could possibly win in 04.

          Kerry, Edwards... those ain't it.

          And sour grapes is not the accurate metaphor for being upset of bitter. Sour grapes is ratioanlizing failure. BUt leave it to neener neeener idiots like yourself to get that wrong too.

          cheers,

          Mitch Gore

          No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

          by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:48:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Sorry you didn't get your way (none)
        We're worthless, apathetic losers because we're not choosing your candidate?  

        Whatever.

        Cheers.

        •  Yep (2.20)
          The party is fullied with apathetic losers.

          That is exactly what Iowa and NH showed becuase the rationale behind the vote was all fear based. It was all based on worries about mindless ill-informed group-think instead of looking at the issues, and the RECORD of acomplishment of the candiates.

          None of them have a record that is in anyway defensiable agains the onslaught headed their way. Dean's was defnesible becaus ehe has a solid and possitive one.

          Name one single thing that ANY of hte other candiate have as a govenreing record of accomplishemtn to run one that will trump the Bush who will outgun any and all (even Dean) in the media and message punding department?

          But please Trapper, just stick with your "whatever",,, becaus eI am sure that will really be a persuassive arguement come Nov.

          cheers,

          Mitch Gore

          No one will change America for you. You must work to make it happen.

          by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:54:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Backwards (none)
      Considering how far Dean is ahead of Clark I think it would make more sense for Clark and his supporters to throw their support behind Dean.

      Dean: The Anti-Kerry.

      The polls don't tell us how a candidate is doing, they tell us how the media is doing.

      by Thumb on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:22:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We can emigrate later--still time to fight (none)
        I have to agree with you.  I think that people who live on the "high" of their candidate winning may in fact desert Dean.  That happened after Iowa.  For those of us who have a reasoned, disciplined approach to picking a candidate (and not on the basis of "will he win," but, rather, on the basis of "is he best for the country"), we are not done yet.  Not by at least a few more elections.  
    •  i'm with you (none)
      i think clark is a strong candidate and i've liked him since i got over the whole "reagan-nixon" thing.

      as a former deanie, i say "go wes!"

    •  ..."it's either Clark or Edwards"... (3.80)
      How the hell does anybody get off saying that?  (And you're not the only one on this board.)  At this point Dean appears to be getting twice the votes of either of them, while he is slowly closing the gap with Kerry (down to 13 percentage points now).  So they are going to be the anti-Kerry?  Something in that logic totally escapes me.

      The thing I like about Dean is that he's a fighter, much more so than some of his supporters.  He WILL keep on fighting for recognition and acceptance.  If he doesn't break thru to a general voter acceptance and win some states in the next couple of rounds, then I'll agree that it's over for him.  

      But he did a hell of job to come back this far from a week ago. Don't any of you Deaners give up your hope, not yet...

    •  Like Minded (none)
      That was my thinking a week ago when I abandoned Dean. But I spent time looking at both Clark and Edwards and settled on Edwards. Give him a closer look. Don't just assume the "lack of experience" rap on him because I have seen him dismantle it, with power and grace.  And just as the "you voted for the war" hasn't stopped Kerry, I don't think the "you don't have national security experience" will stop Edwards.

      Remember, it is not the positions these guys are taking, because all of that is up for review in the great political hurly-burly, it is the way they present themselves and how people respond.

      How Kerry gets any response remains a puzzle to me, unless I don't pay close attention to the fact that he gleans all his ideas from his opponents.  I called him Echoman earlier, but maybe the Rehasher is better.  And I fear so strongly that 2004 would be a rehash of 2000, at best, with him the nominee.

      "We nominated a candidate who won 35-40% of the electorate in every primary he ran in!"

      "I wasn't lying, I was writing fiction with my mouth." - Homer Simpson...or is that GWB?

      by Long Haul on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:38:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll back Clark also... (none)
      If for some reason :( Dean isn't around when NY votes in early March, Clark has my vote and maybe some money. I hope so much that its one of them. Anybody but Kerry begins right now!

      They have created a desert, and called it peace. Tacitus

      by Mike from NJ on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:49:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Anti-war & strong on defense?? Oxymoron (none)
      So tell me this if Clark is anti-war and Nat'l security is going to be the big issue in the swing states down south how does that play out? Seems to me it's a contrdiction anti-war and strong on defense?? No, Edwards is the guy to carry the anti-Kerry banner down south with a populist banner not an anti-war banner. The war is an issue but not the winning one for us this yr. It's the economy stupid just like in 92' Bush's phony stock market boom economy that hasn't created job 1 yet in 3.5 yrs. is the right way to win in Nov. By then Bush would have gotten Iraq into some kind of place where it's neutralized anyway. But, he has little power to make the economy go faster or create jobs. Edwards has the Youth, charisma and the brain to beat Bush!! GO John Edwards!!!!
      •  because of those four stars... (none)
        he can pose such a seemingly contradictory position: [fake quote] "In my 34 years of service as an officer, Iraq was a strategic blunder, but I have the military and international political know-how to turn this lemon into lemonade."
        If he said that, could you say to him, "Mr. Former Supreme Allied Commander, you know jack squat about war and international politics!!"
        •  Academic now (none)
          It's all over so it doesn't matter anyway does it?  Kerry will ask Edwards to join his ticket if the man has half a brain and that will end this whole contest. Dean is history and so is Gen. Clark.
    •  Edwards, Clark (none)
      I liked Edwards to begin with, but when Clark entered I felt he was more electable.

      Edwards has the ability to charm to songbirds from the trees, and the good looks on TV to match. I would love to see him in a series of debates with Bush. The only two problems I see there is that Bush is so good at lowering his expectations, while with Edwards the pundits would make the debates impossibly high, and Edwards might get overconfident. With his clear abilities and Bush's inability to speak the English (or any other) language it would be difficult not to be overconfident.

      Except for that, however, Edwards hasn't impressed me much. When we used to plan operations in my Reserve unit we learned early on that we needed to get the guys with executive experience together to put the plan together and rough it out. After that we would find the guys who were lawyers and hand it to them to edit and argue the language over. Then we would take their input and rewrite the documents to the extent that they consisted of a real and workable plan, regardless of exactly how they were worded. If we let one of the lawyers get in with the executives, suddemly we were arguing over words and language, not actions. Actions make things happen and they are the essence of what an executive needs to cause to happen. Lawyers without extensive executive experience have spent their entire careers honing arguments that get someone else to decide on what should be done. as a result, they are lost in language, and tend to drag the rest of us in with them. All talk, no action was almost certanly a phrase spoken when they had lawyers on the executive committee. Keep them separate and let them do their thing. They screw up executive action otherwise.

      Edwards has zero executive experience and not much political experience. I have also not seen anything that indicates he knows any more about the miltary than he might have learned from a few war movies.

      Clark, however, has a fantastic range of executive experience, and has been both in command of a war and responsible for the diplomacy required to make it work. He is also absolutely brilliant, in the Clinton and Carter class, with the political abilities that escaped Carter as an engineer.

      Clark does not seem to be able to provide a brief answer to any question, however. He does not yet seem to have separated the skills required to make an effective decision (knowledge, subtlety, and judgement.) from what it takes to present a policy view to a broad audience (clear, simple language that takes a complex idea and reduces it to an engaging, clear and simple image that a lot of people can agree with.)

      If asked about what needs to be done with the economy in electoral terms, Clark could present an outstanding analysis in 1500 to 2000 words, where James Carvill reduced it in 1992 to "It's the Economy, Stupid."

      Clark also does not yet seem to be comfortable presenting domestic issues.

      That said, either would be a much better President than Bush. But if your basic criteria is "Who can beat Bush in November." neither one seems all that superior to a sitting President.

      Nor do I understand how either could last financially against Bush until the Democratic Convention.

      A big part of the problem I have among all four remaining candidates is that with each so very capable, and each with significant weaknesses, how do I use my primary criteria of "Who can best beat Bush?" to decide among them?

      But then, with all of them running against Bush, how late can I delay in deciding among them? We really are now down to our four best candidates, but Bush does not know who to attack. They are all out to get him, and each could do it. While the uncertaintity makes me uncomfortable, think of what it must do to Karl Rove? While the uncertaintity may be uncomfortable for me, Rove must be going nuts. The urge to use the Bush warchest extensively against all of them must be very strong, and that lowers the ability to use that warchest against any single primary enemy.

      If somehow Bush takes out the weakest Democrat, he is left facing the toughest remaining one. If they spend to take out the toughest, they first must decide who that is, then spend a lot of money, only to be left to face three more still very tough competitors.

      What the heck. Six more weeks, and we will know. Then the major two questions will be how nasty the Republicans can get when they feel threatened, and what the nature of the October surprise will be. And under any circumstnce, if turnout is high in November, the Democrat will win no matter who he is.

      •  My second "me too" of the evening... (none)
        ...this time, on both the pros and the cons of Clark.  I support Dean, but Clark would be my clear second choice.  Again, an extremely competent person -- a manager, like Dean, not a legislator.  And I have to admit I'd love to see Clark debate Bush, though I would hope he wouldn't continue to give Bush a pass on the AWOL thing.  (I secretly hope Clark is just waiting for the right moment to take off the kid gloves on this topic.)  I vaguely remember a McCain reaction to one of Bush's smears that was something like "I give Bush a pass on the AWOL thing and he hits me with this?"

        I also love Clark sending out the "I dare you" to Rove.  Coming from, say, Sharpton or Lieberman, that would have sounded like a lame attention-getting ploy.  But coming from Clark, it struck me as an impressive display of spine.

  •  Dean (none)
    It will be tough for him.  I find it hard to believe he can win any states on feb 3rd.  After that should be Kerry Edwards.
  •  Kos finally got one wrong (3.60)
    Dean still has plenty of money and fundraising potential. A comeback from locking like 3rd or 4th to a strong second is good stowing. Another week will be even further clear of a rebel yell and into states where Kerry has very little structure. Dean has a deep structure in every state and even significant organization across state boarders, such as SW Victory Express.

    With Kerry saying he will simply surrender the South, Edwards looking very much like a flash in the pan, Clark having fallen off a cliff in NH, and Lieberman looking to drop out after NH, Dean will emerge as Kerry's primary opponent.

    Kerry does very well in blitz media based comapaigning, but he doesn't wear well, as indicated by his early fade into entropy death after being initially hailed as the front runner. Dean is going to nip Kerry's heals into Super Tuesday and pull major victories out then, taking the nomination into the convention.

    The nomination will happen on the floor.

    •  you know, (4.00)
      I'll never be happier to be proven wrong. What you say is a possibility. Which is worse than "probability" but better than "impossibility".
    •  I agree (none)
      Stop whining.  This ain't over, and those that think it is sound like t.v. pundits.  (ackkk)

      Let every man make known what kind of government would command his respect, and that would be one step toward obtaining it. --Henry David Thoreau

      by pam on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:30:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  perhaps (none)
      There are a number of potentials, but we'll know a lot more in a week.  Since the media spin will be two big Kerry victories, money is going to flow in, people will start thinking him of the presumptive, etc.

      Nevertheless, this Dean supporter holds out hope.  A week ago folks around here were saying that a 3rd wouldn't finish him off.  We need to see what the AZ, NM, and MO polls look like in the next couple of days.  That should tell us a great deal.  If Kerry starts to pull away in these places, then it might be all she wrote.  But I'm still hoping my and Kos's Super Tuesday CA votes will still be meaningful ...

    •  NOT !! (none)
      Nobody and I mean nobody has ever lost the nomination after winning both IA and NH . Kerry is the man now and it's just a matter of choosing a VP. Which will probably be a surprise , maybe Graham from Fla. and possibly Edwards but, I'm starting to doubt that. Definitely, not Clark that's for sure. Lets get this behind us as quickly as we can now because it's going to be one helluva battle all the way to Nov. I just hope Kerry is physically and emotionally up for this. Bush might be a lot of things but one of them isn't sick or out of shape. Kerry is the living embidiment of the old Liberal wing of the party sick tired and hollowed out. God help us.
  •  THE MAN IS A TALL DUKAKIS. (none)
    Sorry to shout. But he just ain't got no Elvis. You can't win without Elvis.

    This is the result the Republicans most wanted.  Bear that in mind, everyone in the other 48.

    (shamelessly stolen from Molly Ivins)

    •  Lincoln (none)
      Lincoln was 1 of the ugliest men ever to walk the earth, but he was lucky because TV was a century away. :( John Kerry is going to be a tough sell by any stretch of the imagination but he's going to be the candidate so we'd all better get used to it quick. The man has one attribute that I really admire a lot. No matter how far back he was in the pack last fall he never gave up he just kept on coming. That one quality alone should send shivers up Karl Rove's spine. This man is not Dukakis he's John Kerry and we have to give him his due now.
  •  good news for you deaniacs (3.50)
    no offense kos, but you've been wrong on each primary contest, so i'd say your prognostications count as a jinx on kerry.

    just sayin.

    these candidates go to eleven

    by zeke L on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:10:20 PM PST

  •  I was starting to get optimistic... (none)
    due to Bush's dropping poll numbers.  But I just don't see Kerry winning the GE.  I think Bush will win if Kerry is the nominee.  Sorry to be a downer.

    "Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king" - Bob Dylan

    by alias on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:10:30 PM PST

    •  Electable (none)
      Yes. Kerry is almost certain to lose the GE.

      But he has to win the primary, because he's the most electable.

      Figure that one out.

      •  Um (none)
        I see Kerry winning the General Election.  That's too bad that you've given up hope.  Good will triumph.  Evil will flop.
        •  I will crawl across cut glass to vote for Kerry... (3.00)
          or whomever wins.  But Kerry needs to hit back and not rest on his Vietnam service (as admirable as it is).  I don't see him appealing to blue-collar types in the midwest/industrial states.  Plus I think there is dirt on him that is bound to come out at a most inopportune time.  Again sorry to be pessimistic, but that's how I see it.

          "Steal a little and they throw you in jail, steal a lot and they make you king" - Bob Dylan

          by alias on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:18:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  yeah, at this point, you're running on sadness (none)
          really, if Kerry runs the rest like he's run in '04 so far, he can definitely beat Bush.

          No question.  

          •  I keep hearing people (none)
            repeat CW on Kerry, when they themselves are critical of CW when it hurts their candidate (Dean).

            Kerry's not my number one choice, but one has to be impressed with the way Kerry is doing with voters without college degrees, and with moderates. I'm not buying the unelectable thing with Kerry. People who spout it are stuck back in 1988. Its a different ballgame today, folks. I still would take Edwards over Kerry, but Kerry's stronger than many people think.

            Ben P

            Liberalism: not the left, but the vital center

            by Ben P on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:26:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  right (none)
            look, us deaniacs hate people telling us that dean is unelectable.
            so from now on, i won't say it about kerry.
            we just don't know.
        •  Cue the meadows, flowers, and bunnies... (none)
          Good will triumph.  Evil will flop.

          You're kidding right? I mean, I'm sorry if I'm a cynic, but look at what's happened in the United States in the last three years...they're bankrupting the federal government, gutting environmental regs, and have killed or maimed thousands of soldiers...just for a start...and you think that Good will triumph?

        •  Electable? Who the heck knows? (none)
          I think Kerry or any of them has a shot at GWB. That is pure optimism, not an actual prediction. I will freely admit that I don't know anything, and that I can always be wrong.

          All the back and forth on who is more electable really exhausts me. As if any of us know. Anyone here that would have predicted Jesse Ventura would be Governor of Minnesota in 1998? Everyone has their own pet theory for their candidate.

          I wish everyone would stop second-guessing the electorate, the Rove attack machine, the future primary results, and admit they don't know. Vote for the one that would make the best President, please. Voters in the general election don't vote based on electability.

          I want to cry whenever I see someone say they voted for their guy because he was the most electable. What a ringing endorsement! What stellar qualifications!

      •  If I remember correctly . . . (none)
        When Dean was kicking everyone's ass in the polls earlier, the anti-Dean crowd was saying: "yeah, but he's got the worse shot at being elected."

        Do the results now vindicate you or make you hypocrites when someone says the same about Kerry and you defend on the ground of two tiny state wins?

        Can we collectively all get over ourselves and just, instead of saying that some other guy won't win against GWB, just say "I like __"?

        You are all full of sh!t, even those of you who are "right" now.  Tomrrow you will be full of sh!t too, its just that no one will be paying attention to you to call you on it.

        Deanies should have a self-imposed "feed the bat" when someone B.S.'s like they know something (including themselves).

        Full Disclosure:  Deaniac.  I don't know Sh!t either, except what I hope, what I believe, and who I like.  Anyone says they know more than that is full of sh!t.

  •  Dean is not an issue (3.62)
    Lemme explain what I mean.

    Dean is neither the messiah nor the anti-christ. He is a candidate. I think we have allowed ourselves to focus overmuch on one man, for good or ill. Your being led around by your noses by the media into a monomaniacal focus on the man.

    Lets everyone take a step back from the horse race and look at what else we can take from this. Turnout is way up...that seems a good sign. Independents (in a liberal, northern state albeit) signing up to vote democratic in unheard of numbers. Thats a good sign for everyone.

    Dean, Kerry, Edwards, what have you, are not the issue in and of themselves. They are merely people who have come to represent particular stances on particular issues.

    "Life is pain, Highness. Anyone who says diffrently is selling something" ~The Princess Bride

    by AnarchistFag on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:10:30 PM PST

    •  great post (4.00)
      This is an excellent post. It echoes Dean himself--"this campaign isn't about me." There is still a place for Dean supporters to carve out at the table. Dean wasn't the lone knight capable of upending the Democratic Party establishment. Money still talks, and lets face it, when you raise as much money as Dean did, in a manner that shows the way for Democrats to weather the new campaign finance milieu, you've carved out a substantial amount of influence.

      Whether Dean is the nominee or not, the Democratic Party is back, and his campaign deserves the credit.

      •  Yes and no (none)
        Dean saying "this is more than just about me" is largely rhetoric. I say that as a Dean sympathizer. But this is the last believable part of his schtick.

        Of course it's about him. There's a larger goal/message of shaking up the Dem Party and Washington. But to do that requires a vehicle, and Dean the candidate is that vehicle.

        If Dean loses/drops, that movement is dead.

        •  rhetoric (none)
          I never believed that "it's not about me" was Dean's real rationale for running. But that doesn't mean that it isn't true. It applies equally to all of the candidates, of course, but I think with the Dean supporters it is even more germane, because of the legions of volunteers that were mobilized.

          There are ways to influence the Democratic Party, if that was the goal of the Dean supporters, even without a vehicle. Like I say, the ability to cough up the green or vote with their feet will be a particularly powerful inducement. The movement only dies if Dean's supporters want it to die.

  •  Dean's last stand? (none)
    My advice to Dean and his campaign at this point:

    Bag the February 3 and February 10 (Virginia and Tennessee) states, though do make an effort in the Washington state and Maine caucuses.

    Put just about everything into Wisconsin, which is the only state voting on February 17.  Take up semipermanent residence there.  It is the next upcoming state anywhere near hospitable to Dean's persona and message.

    Of course if he does this he is running the risk that Kerry may wrap things up before Wisconsin rolls around.  But he has to take that risk.  If there is a ticket for him to Super Tuesday, Wisconsin is it.

    (BTW I am a Clark person; of course, unlike Dean, Clark has a decent shot at at least one February 3 state.)

    •  Momentum will destroy that strategy (none)
      I want Dean to win as much as anyone. But NH proved that strategy wont work. That was what Clark and Palpatine tried in NH and it helped them naught. Dean's only hope is to spot weakness in 1-2 states next week where the vote will be especially split and his 25-30 will be enough for win.
    •  Dean ain't finished -- Dean done is B.S.! (3.50)
      First, I'm not a Deaniac. I'm not a big Kerry fan, either. I'm an ABB, leaning toward Edwards.

      However, I fail to see how Dean is finished.

      The advice you give to Dean, sjberke, is close, but a little off.

      Kos, on the other hand, is just plain wrong, so long as Dean wants to keep fighting and so long as it is true that he has the money to keep fighting for a while. I would chalk up Kos being wrong to him being too close to the race. Tonight's Dean loss and Clark's underwhelming performance probably hurt him a bit too much.

      Why isn't Dean finished?

      I think Clinton disproved the "importance" of NH back in '92, and Iowa hasn't been important for years. More important, this jam-packed, front-loaded campaign season is throwing a lot of things off.

      So, what is important in this season, for everybody?


      • Feb. 3, more than 6 percent of the delegates up for grabs. Four times as many delegates as have been selected thus far.

      • Feb. 7, nearly 5 percent of the delegates up for grabs, only four days after the big block on Feb. 3

      These races are right around the corner, and the news cycles are light years faster than they were even four years ago. We've already seen one candidate, Kerry, running an atrociously bad campaign turn it around in three weeks to win Iowa and New Hampshire. One mistep and a candidate is in trouble. One good story, and a candidate is back on top.

      Kerry needs to pick up momentum from his win tonight to keep winning, and with a lot of states up for grabs very soon, he doesn't have much time to build up his momentum.

      Before this front-loaded campaign season, a candidate had time to pick up momentum from a win to build support and to add a little more money for the next race, and then the next race, and so on -- momentum! Now, the candidate better be ready to run with little momentum. This is on top of the 24/7 news cycle, nightly and daily talk programs, talk radio, and the Internet.

      Dean hasn't done that bad. He has picked up some delegates. If he gets a good news story or two, spends his cash wisely in the states he can pick up, he could still win, easily.

      So, what states could he go for broke in on Feb. 3 and 7 to reach some kind of parity with or even to pull ahead of Kerry?

      Dean's campaign has publicly stated they feel they will be competitive in Arizona, Washington, Michigan, New Mexico and Maine. Those states are worth 285 delegates alone, plus he has 7 delegates from Iowa and whatever couple he picked up tonight. If Dean were smart, he'd concentrate on those. Heck, Washington and Michigan, the Feb. 7 races, are worth 204 delegates. He could put all his resources in just those two states, forgo the rest of them, and just stay competitive for a while, try to make some momentum happen between Feb. 7 and March 2 -- California and all the other races for 1,151 delegates.

      By way of comparison, there are only 188 other delegates available in the other races on Feb. 3 and 7, in Delaware, Missouri, North Dakota and Oklahoma. Plus, Kerry already has the 20 delegates from Iowa and somewhere under 22 delegates from New Hampshire tonight.

      I also think Dean ought to go back to what he knows. Screw electability. Ignore the other candidates. Hammer Bush. Scream at the top of his lungs about Iraq, about the dead troops, the chaos in the Mid-East, the failure to get Bin Laden and all of al Qaeda, etc. Throw red meat to us pissed off donkeys. We're asses, let's act like it! It's when Dean started getting in these pissing contests with the other Dems that he started losing.

      On the other hand, if Dean doesn't have the money he claims to have, and/or if he gives up, then, Kos is right -- it would be over.

  •  I don't agree (none)
    I don't think it's even close to over.  John Edwards will win South Carolina and it's arguable that he could combine (1) Iowa Mo; (2) Holy Joe out; (3) Dean toast; (4) Clark tumbling; and (5) Massachusetts liberal into more wins on Feb 3 (esp. Oklahoma).

    I had not seen this posted and I haven't posted this because I am waiting for the diaries to come back, but there is a new Survey USA poll of South Carolina released today.

    Edwards: 32%
    Clark: 17%
    Dean: 16%
    Kerry: 13%
    Sharpton: 10%
    Lieberman: 5%
    Kucinich: 1%
    Undecided: 5%

    This has already been a curious election year and I do not think that the Democratic Party is quite ready yet to concede the nomination to John Kerry.  In my observation John Edwards is the most natural politician to come along since at least Bill Clinton. The media will need some kind of storyline and I expect the quickening rise of John Edwards to be it.

    I guess we'll find out but I am looking ahead and I don't think this one's over.

  •  Congrats to whomever! (none)
    If it's Kerry, we have a good candidate, because we had a great assortment of candidates this time around.  Any one of them are true Democrats who deserve our support.

    I was a bit miffed when kos made his "no criticizing Dean and Clark, the only two who can win" rule, which I thought was very premature and made no sense other than to push kos's first and second choice.  I'm hoping he'll help secure support for Kerry if/when he is our nominee.

    I wasn't a Kerry supporter but I do like him very much as I do all the candidates for inspiring great support so far.

    •  Kos's bottom-line is ABB. (none)
      Kos has declared many times that he will support whoever becomes the Democratic nominee.

      So you, Kos, (and I) will definitely still be on the same team to fight Bush.

      Hear it? The Oracle cries the demise of He-Who-Lies. And the rise... of civil America.

      by Civil Sibyl on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:47:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  On the bright side, (3.50)
    I think the high turnout is a good sign Bush is getting that one way ticket back to Crawfor, Texas!TM
  •  Agree with that assessment (none)
    Dean: If he can't win in NH, where can he win against Kerry? I see no hope for Dean. The best thing he did was help the other candidates find the anti-Bush message that resonates with all of us.

    Clark: Barely alive, he had NH to himself and collapsed. Still, he has a shot if he can come back and win in AZ and OK - still one week is so short - he needs to bury those states with ads - do or die.

    Edwards: Two good results for him, finishing 2nd in unfamiliar territory. He will win SC - I can't wait for next week.

    Kerry: Blows away Dean, and is being given huge expectations by the media for next week. Still, momentum is so damn important.

    After next week, it has to be a two man race, probably Kerry-Edwards, outside chance for Clark.

    •  I'm not so sure (none)
      Dean's not necessarily in a worse position than Clark.  Dean has a second place and a third place (with delegates) finish.  Clark has a third place (no delegates) and a pass.  I think Dean was leading Arizona, as he was most states, pre-Iowa.  The 3rd place and the shout in Iowa hurt him, but since then he's handily defeated Clark (although it was in a neighboring state).

      It's Kerry's to lose, with an outside chance for Edwards or Dean.

  •  A sad day for all of us (3.66)
    I honestly and sadly believe that NH just elected Bush for four more years. Kerry will get the base Dem vote (hell, I'll vote for any Democrat), but it won't be enough to win. That's because Kerry is too familiar, too establishment, too boring. He will neither put up a good fight vs. Bush or inspire new/swing voters. Dean would have done both, but it's too late now. Folks in NH got scared and voted safe...which is exactly why the GOP has the power they now enjoy...they prey on fear and tonight they are dancing.
    •  what? (none)
      I honestly and sadly believe that NH just elected Bush for four more years. Kerry will get the base Dem vote (hell, I'll vote for any Democrat), but it won't be enough to win. That's because Kerry is too familiar, too establishment, too boring. He will neither put up a good fight vs. Bush or inspire new/swing voters. Dean would have done both

      -Dean/deaniacs TRASHED the DLC for saying you had to go after swing voters. Dean said he'd go after the base.

      •  Your Dean hatred is showing ... (4.00)
        you are wrong when you say

        "-Dean/deaniacs TRASHED the DLC for saying you had to go after swing voters. Dean said he'd go after the base."

        Dean said that the Democratic party (DLC) had forgotten their base and failed to stand up for Democratic principles (Iraq war, NCLB, Patriot Act, tac cuts).  Dean pointed out that Democratic postions on issues are not only right for the country but polls show that people prefer as to those held by Repubs.  So why the cave by the party leadership?  Why did it allow itself to be bullied?  These guys needed and still need a backbone transplant.

        Dean has always made it clear that his strategy for winning the GE would focus on themes that appeal to the center:  

        • an affordable and practical plan to extend health care to everyone in the U.S.
        • restoring fiscal discipline
        • improving education (fully funding special education - see the Jim Jeffords endorsement)
        • racial unity
        • a foreign policy based on strong international alliances
        • fighting terrorism by more fully funding first responders, inspecting cargo containers entering the US and fully funding Comprehnesive Threat Reduction with the countries in the former Soviet Union.
        I would enjoy read something insightful that you might have to share but that last comment reads more like TV talking head CW.
    •  not dems (none)
      it wasn't dems who put kerry so far ahead in nh, it was all republicans who turned out for the primary voting for kerry - because they know he'll be toast against Bush. For all their bravado, the gop is terrified of dean. I would not be surprised in the gop secretly had an organization in nh specifically to help Kerry get elected.

      Since i'm ranting about conspiracy, how about kerry and bush being skull and bones members. I thing kerry is being helped to capture the nomination so he do a solid for his bonesman bro and take a dive.

  •  Re: First thoughts (none)
    Wow!  I agree with Markos' analysis for the first time in quite a while.

    If you care about defeating Kerry and putting a better candidate up on the debating platform against Bush next fall, consider throwing Edwards a few bucks ASAP.  He needs money this week.

    http://www.JohnEdwards2004.com/contribute.asp

    Of course, if you don't like Edwards, don't bother.

  •  i wonder who Gov. Dean would support (none)
    I still think Dean has a chance, but I wonder if he was pressed to chose between the remaining 3 candidates, who he would support?  I assume it would not be Kerry, that leaves Edwards and Clark.  I just wonder!
  •  Here's an Idea for posters: (none)
    No gloating.

    No sour grapes.

    That should be a challenge.

    "Winning isn't Everything.  It's the Only Thing."

    (from a former NY Giants coach who later coached some other team)

  •  I dsagree with Kos (3.50)
    Because I do not think Bill Clinton wants to see Kerry as the nominee.  While I think it is possible that any democrat could beat Bush under the right circumstances,  Kerry on the top of the ticket probaly means losing 3 (NC, SC, and GA) of the 5 Southern (also FL and LA) open Democratic Senate seats, and that would doom Hillary's chance to become Senate Majority Leader.

    I  stil think they want Edwards.  The question is will Edwards be willing to pull a Kerry, and loan his campaing 5 million to stay on the air   ... if he does, afgter this set of results, he could actually quickly become the atni-Kerry, because he could win AZ, OK and SC and if Dean really tanks possibly even NM   - his message about 2 Americas would really play in the Hispanic and Natie American communities there.

    How much money does Dean have left, and hjow can he best use it on behalf of the Demoratic party.  one tacgtic would be to attack Kerry's vulnerabilities on electability, but that would really rend the party.   The other is to talk about issues, about the issue that matter  -- many of these would c onnect with Edwards, and possibly give him a boost.

    I stand where I stood several days ago.  I think the evidence now is sufficient to say that Kerry did push-polling and worse, and that he is not honest about his own record.  I will not vote for him should he be the nominee.  Again, as a resident of Virginia I don't think it matters because I don't think he has any chance of carrying the Old Dominion.

    I do agree with Kos  --  Edwards has to do much better much more quickly, or this party is in real trouble.  There may be enough anger against Bush in the country to elect a ham wandwich president, but you will not have changed the politics, and you will not bring in the down-ticket Democrats needed to accomplish anything while in office.

    We may know by next week   --- if Kerry can win 5 or 6 of the 7, he will be unstoppable, and Bush will begin to attack him.  Right now, there is still a hope, albeit a slim one, that Edwards can stop him, or at least throw it into the convention   -- which if Dean sticks around and picks up dribs and drabs of delegates, might become more possible.  I think if Dean can't win at least 2 next week, he ought to pack it in, because if he dosn't win it outright, the party will never give it to him.

    I am sad, depressed, and worried for my country.

    i m a teacher & proud of it

    by teacherken on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:16:32 PM PST

    •  Kamikaze time? (none)
      You talk about how Dean should use his money on behalf of the democratic party? Why, because they have been so supportive of him? I say if DFA decides it is finished, we unload what money we have and take down Kerry so Clark can rise up. Maybe BFA can put up a bat for taking down Kerry. I'd put up money for that one. Dean owes zilch to the democratic party and John Kerry. Kerry ran around Iowa telling everyone Dean was unelectable and all types of slimy stuff like that. I think we need to take Kerry down- if it's too late for us, we can damage him so Clark can come up.

      They have created a desert, and called it peace. Tacitus

      by Mike from NJ on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:58:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  kamikaze (for bush) (none)
        what you are suggesting is exactly what karl rove dreams about every night. Dean is committed to beating Bush and if he can't win the nomination I sure hope he makes a concerted effort on behalf of the candidate who does win.
    •  oh, ken: (none)
      I am sad, depressed, and worried for my country.
      Me too. Scared.
      Let's keep grass-rooting for Dean.
  •  Edwards??? ...you must be joking!!! (none)
    Are you "predicting" or were you "told" that Edwards has been annointed number 2. That doesn't make sense Dean has more money and supporters.

    Should we start calling you Kos Carville because you are spouting DNC talking points.

    Funny, there was a DNC member on BBC saying the exact thing 5 hours ago about Edwards.

    I guess that Kerry and Edwards are the annointed ones

  •  Kucinich should stay the entire way (none)
    Kucinich (being in the race for the long haul) is good: He makes the rest look like moderates. As it gets near the end, that will be all the more important to help the winner move to the center. William Saleten at Slate wrote a cool article after a debate a few weeks back suggesting that the moment K is about to drop out, whoever is left should pay him to stick around, for exactly this reason.
  •  I thought Howard... (none)
    ... was done IA, but he placed third there.  Once I got over my expectations, I realized that that was pretty good!  Second in NH doesn't suck either.

    In terms of delegate counts, the Dr is still in the lead (barely).  I don't he's done by a longshot.

    The only trouble I see is that whoever is left standing after the primaries won't have a dime to go after Bush.

    And whoever said that Kerry = Bush in '04 sums up my sentiments exactly.  But then, I'm just being overly pessimistic.

  •  i liked this comment (none)
    I get the feeling that Dean and his Deaniacs listen only to each other. Deaniacs remind me of McGovern supporters who stood around and said, "Everyone I spoke to was voting for McGovern."
    •  well actually (none)
      Dean and Deaniacs are not closed loop. But neither really gives a crap what Bush, the GOP, and those loyal to them are saying, not we they care much for Democrats who have been brainwashed by their lies. Other candidates and the Democractic establishment have bought into the dominant dialog, which is founded on those lies. We listen when poeople wake up and stop wagging their toungues in blind immitation of the enemy.
  •  LaRouche pulling away... (none)
    ... from Moseley Braun.

    With 57% reporting:

    LaRouche 50
    Moseley Braun 43

    The Draft Hillary movement appears to be going down in flames.

    Hillary 5 (write-in)

  •  First Thoughts (none)
    The "Dream Ticket" is turning into the 04 Nightmare.
  •  I'm with Kos on this (none)
    It's a cold heartless business folks.  Take a couple of days to grieve.  You deserve it.
  •  Kerry (none)
    Kerry will be very tough to stop, and I agree that Edwards is now the only one who can do it.  Missouri next week will be key.  I expect Edwards to win South Carolina and Oklahoma.  Kerry, Delaware and Arizona.  If Kerry wins Missouri, he'll come a lot closer to wrapping it up.
  •  Hold the phones on Edwards (none)
    With 54% in at ABC, Clark has overtaken Edwards.  Town-by-town indicates a lot of rural NH left to report.  The general may still take third.

    "Capitalism without rules is like a hockey game without a referee."--Howard Dean

    by BTP on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:19:25 PM PST

  •  Clark has pulled ahead (none)
    cnn.com has Clark ahead of Edwards by 49 votes with 58% reporting.

    Its going down to the wire for third and for the race to be the anti-Kerry.

  •  clark on the move (none)
    yes!
    as a dean supporter first, clark second, good news!
  •  50% more Dem Voter turnout! (none)
    240,000 showed up up 50% from Clinton's 1996 primary of 148,000!

    We are going to see this in EVERY STATE!  That will translate to about 65-75 million Democrat voters this time around from 2000.

    BUSH IS FINISHED!!!

    •  This is the big story (none)
      Turnout, turnout, turnout.  
    •  open (none)
      nh is an open primary. A lot of those voters are republicans out to skew the choice of the democrats by voting for a patsy for Bush to tackle - Kerry.
      •  I read that some where (none)
        but I doubt that a significant number of republicans would go so far as to change their registration (or simply register as a Democrat) vote for a candidate and then change back to republican.  I seriously doubt that any more than a few thousand would do that if even that much but I am sure that there are some few hundred here and there that would.  We call those the Young Republicans.
  •  YEAAAAHHHHHGGG! (3.86)
    God, you Deaniacs just ruffle my feathers. Your guy comes in 2nd and you fold??!!? Now more than ever it's time to stand up for your guy and support him. Dean's not done, not by a long shot. You now have a clear objective, you have demographic exit poll data that's probably better than the Iowa caucus data. Clark and Edwards are going to draw off numbers from Dean in the south. Dean needs to get on the ball with his south strategy and you need to support him in this.

    He's not done, his record is better than Kerry's, he's more electable than Kerry. Stand up. Dust yourselves off and start putting those feet far apart, you're getting knocked down far too easily. Now is NOT the time to cry in your orange beanies. Now is the time to fight like hell. You've got a week, this the the back leg of the race, you need to be cross country runners, not sprinters! Feel the burn, get that runners high and pull for your guy!

    •  Here here (none)
      I may get knocked down, but I will get up again.
    •  Realism (none)
      Its just realistic perspective. Candidates will run strong in the states that match their ideology/geography. Dean had to do well in anti-war iowa and neighboring NH. Its clear that he has a very stable base of 20-25%. But if he can't break above that with the positive media coverage he's gotten this week (Diane Sawyer, Letterman) than he wont.

      The Clinton comparison is silly. Clinton got the suprise close second before going into the south, his strongest area. Dean got a distance (and below expectations) second before going into his weakest area.

      I am not bailing on my support for Dean, and will still argue that he should win. But its hard to stay hopeful that he will.

      •  Hang on, now (3.00)
        Dean got no positive coverage that I saw. The Diane Sawyer interview was little more than a roast, at BEST. She kept coming after Dean with questions about character issues...and the way she played to Judy Dean (as if Diane Sawyer doesn't respect an independent working woman)...come ON.

        Didn't see Letterman, can't comment on that. But I will say that the press has done quite a bit of damage to Dean, and Kerry has been propped up, because they know he'll be easy to knock down.

        buddhaplex new york, ny

        by buddhaplex on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:30:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Geography (none)
        Candidates will run strong in the states that match their ideology/geography

        I think geography's being overhyped for Feb. 3.  Look at Gephardt in Iowa.

        Edwards will have an advantage in South Carolina since he was born there, but as much of one as Kerry will have for two 1st-place finishes?  As for Clark and Oklahoma / South Carolina: I doubt his Southern background will matter much.

        Arizona seems to like both Dean and Clark, so it's a shame they'll be splitting the non-Kerry vote (in addition to Edwards).

    •  Hey! Whose giving up?! (3.33)
      Not this Deaniac.  49 more contests to go.  NOBODY has this election bagged yet.
    •  Nobody is going nowhere!!!! (none)
      I really get disgusted with comments like Kos's  that picks a 1 term say-anything Senator as stronger than Dean.

      Kos, if you really need diapers that bad we will chip in, you don't have to sell your soul to the DNC!!!

    •  yeah! (none)
      Damn Straight! There are many paths to nomination and serval of them are still open. We are not going to sweep the field off the Board in two tiny states, but that doesn't mean we should stop pushing.
    •  The ROPE-A-DOPE (none)
      I still believe that Dean is looking like Mohammed Ali. Hanging back on the ropes taking the hard body blows. He still has the 50 state campaign, and the hardcore support. The money is still flowiing in.

      He's looking done, but again, he's got the comeback spirit. He's not exactly where he wants to be, but I think he's got a LOT of fight left in him. I'm there with him until he either drops out or takes the oath of office in January.

  •  Kos' predictive ability (none)
    It's laughable that Kos is touting how he predicted that there was only one ticket out of NH for Kerry or Dean. Why don't you emphasize that you forecasted a Dean win even as of yesterday?

    Stick to rooting for your candidate Kos rather than forecasting.

  •  I'm glad (none)
    I'm glad I try to avoid the expectations game. Sure I made my predictions in the thread before, but wishful thinking a deal breaking not make. Some may call me a hard core Deaniac supreme for keeping with my guy until the bitter end, but being a stubborn guy who has a dream is what I'm all about. But let us continue the game that is the politics and we shall see what happens. I suspect when I was at the caucus over a week ago, similar spasms were pulsing through the dkos as they are to night. It's kind of amazing that everyone is so excitable around here.

    (this post written with a sort of facinated grin, btw. yes, I'm strange)

  •  I'm not done yet, but (none)
    just for once I was hoping to have someone I actually wanted to vote for, instead of using them to vote against someone.

    Reading or clicking my sig sums it up pretty well.

  •  All about ABB (none)
    All the major media reports led with something like "NH is known for its independence and hostility to front-runners..." over the last week. But what we saw Granite Staters do is give an immense boost to the front-runner.

    What this shows is that they, like the Iowans, like numerous other Americans, are girding for war. They are determined to throw Bush out and won't settle for someone whom they feel is an inadequate battlefield commander. Not that I necessarily agree - it is what it is.

    Kerry has it locked up now. Take it to the bank. Edwards will make it a close second in SC, and Dean will hang around until March, but it's over. Kerry wins. On to the general election...

    ...that, at least, is what New Hampshire voters are saying.

    •  ABB yes but... (none)
      Does that make me agree with New Hampshire voters on how to oust Bush? People still have a variety of opinions. This anointing of a front runner is bogus and destructive to a constructive democratic process that produces the best candidate. It was bogus when Dean was called the front runner and its bogus when Kerry is, and it will be bogus when the next guy is (this election or next).
  •  Next (none)
    This next week:

    Lieberman:  Various folks trying to get him out of the race.

    Clark:  I'm betting he's going to put his eggs in the Oklahoma basket, and secondly in Arizona.

    Edwards:  He's going to want a Southern decisive victory, will focus on South Carolina, may dabble with Oklahoma and Missouri.

    Dean:  He has to pick a state to win.  New Mexico?  Delaware?  He's going to have to really hammer Kerry this week if he expects much more for him in this race.

    Kerry:  Back into the fire.  If a Democrat is going to go nuclear on him, this is the week.  Regardless, the press are going to chew on him for real this week.  

    We're going to the golden arches our life's so perfect it glows - Graham Parker

    by PSoTD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:24:30 PM PST

  •  Clark/Edwards (none)
    I guess I might have to revise my last post.  If Edwards finished behind Clark, that would be psychological blow.  Clark could win Oklahoma.  John Kerry may end up being a very, very happy man tonight.
  •  There is a debate in 2 days (none)
    So maybe Dean can pull of some incredible Roy Hobbesian blast on Kerry, then who knows? Heh.
  •  Excuse Me? (none)
    How can you say the NH results mean everything for the Dean campaign but apparently nothing for the Edwards campaign?  I see Dean stronger than Edwards, by a long shot.  Can't have it both ways Kos.

    Think Edwards is gonna pull a southern state or two in the general.  No way.  I live in NC.  It would be a MIRACLE for him to win here.

    I ain't giving it up yet.  This race is between Dean and Kerry, and I am going to do what I can to see Dean through.    

    We've got a pit bull.  Kerry's a turkey.

  •  Paging Chris Lehane (3.75)
    I'm not a fan.  But I'll forgive what you did to Bill Bradley if you promise to do it to John Kerry next week.
  •  Sweet Jeebus! (none)
    What a bunch of whining weenies. I know it is election night and people are downcast, but this sort of behavior is so undignified. So childish. Hopefully, some of you will be ashamed of yourselves in the morning.
  •  how about this scenario (3.75)
    Let's say that Dean refuses to give up even though political pundits and bloggers like kos suggest that he's finished.  Instead, Dean's attacks on the Bush administration for lying to the American people in order to garner support for Iraq become more incisive, more damning, and more persuasive.  And his attacks are cleverly constructed so as to make those who fell for Bush's propoganda (i.e., Kerry, Edwards) look increasingly foolish.  Finally the chord is struck and a majority of the country suddently wakes up and realizes that, for starters anyway, "sending a message" to Bush and his cronies (i.e., kicking them out of office on their butts) is all that matters.  

    I ain't givin up.

     

    "Isn't life disappointing?" "Yes it is."

    by ubarquat on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:26:49 PM PST

    •  And then, after all that... (3.00)
      maybe monkeys will fly out of your butt! Come on. Dean has had a year to make this case. If he has not made by now, he isn't going to make it. Dean spent two years and over $20 million on these two little states and he has no wins to show for it.
      •  and after the monkeys ... (none)
        True, Dean doesn't have any wins, but he did bounce back after Iowa and now he has the opportunity to show that he has GUTS.  You and kos and CNN may say that he's foolish or concoct some other "logical" reason why he should forget the whole thing but that's because you can't imagine something happening that's never happened before.  Unfortunately there just haven't been enough presidential primaries to conclude "what tonight's results mean."  America loves the scrappy underdog and if Dean can fit into that suit (which I think he can) he may inspire people who otherwise wouldn't vote (i.e., most Americans) to come out and vote for him.  Voila.  Bush loses.  Dean wins.  For an added bonus we can fantasize that he picks some hitherto unforseen but stellar candidate for VP.

        I'm got tons of this sunshine and, like the Robot Kong, I don't tire.

        "Isn't life disappointing?" "Yes it is."

        by ubarquat on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:46:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dean/Clark Coalition? (none)
    After tonight, the writing is on the wall for Dean and Clark, unless...

    Could a Dean/Clark coalition do any good?  Kerry and Edwards both voted for Bush's war and NCLB.  "They had the chance - the responsibility - to stand up to the GOP.  They failed."

  •  Hurray! (4.00)
    I sure am glad Terry McDumbass front loaded the campaign so that 200K white folk can decide who our nominee is.  What great system.  Maybe next time we could just find a small town in North Dakota and let the people of that town vote and decide for all the rest of us.

    Marry Kerri? I'd rather Hari-Kari.

    by code99 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:28:23 PM PST

  •  i disagree (none)
    i don't agree for a second that it is over for dean; he can easily win at least one of new mexico and arizona, and take michigan and wisconsin the next couple of weeks.
    still, keep in mind that with this loss, dean still holds a lead both in the number of delegates and money.

    it is very disturbing that the pundits declare the game over with just 2 states.
    there has never been a nominee sweeping through the states;  when kerry loses, a lot of cloud of invincibility will be lifted off him;
    i would hardly call this race over.

  •  Hit the button! (none)
    If Clark or Dean have anything they'd like to talk about re: John Kerry, they really ought to throw it up there now...

    "Weapons of mass destruction including evil chemistry and evil biology are all matters of great concern..." -- John Ashcroft"

    by ChicagoDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:31:04 PM PST

  •  Can Dean still win? (none)
    Doesn't Dean have the issues and the right resume on his side?  Perhaps he just has not been effective in getting out the message,  and needs to still prove electability by confronting it.
  •  How long do these "independents"... (none)
    in New Hampshire, have to stay affiliated to the Democratic Party?

    1 year? 6 months? 1 day?

    Feh.

    Please somebody, tell me where Dean and Kerry intersect on any policies, excepting the war, where there are any similarities.

    Being in Virginia, a swapped vote in the general might be looking better all the time. Any suggestions?

  •  Random thoughts (none)
    Bush is so vulnerable right now it makes me giggle like a little girl.

    Before declaring Bush the winner against Kerry in November, can we please not forget about the 9/11 commission?  Whenever this report comes out, there are sure to be some serious bombshells.  Perhaps none fatal to Bush...but likely very damaging.  

    Did anyone see him today with the Polish president? He was asked how he could explain to the American people his claims in last year's SOTU given Kay's recent comments about there not being any WMD.  God, he looked scared, and could only muster "I want to compliment Mr. Kay and the entire staff on their great work."  

    Anyway...the primary is SO far from over.  I'm puzzled by the whole "establishment will rally around Kerry" sentiment.   Edwards is quickly emerging as the establishment darling IMHO.

    There haven't been any major assassinations in this country in quite some time.

    by Jesu G6K on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:33:31 PM PST

    •  Remember who's wearing the pants... (none)
      Bush has already put the pressure on the 9/11 commission (quietly of course) to not release their findings until after the Election.

      Still, we've got the Where's the WMD? thing, and oh yeah, what about that Wilson leaker? Hmmm....

      The establishment is the Bush administration with PRESS badges.

      buddhaplex new york, ny

      by buddhaplex on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:37:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  no shit? (none)
        i suppose ive only read about the deadlines for completing the report.

        The Administration is trying to block any extensions, hoping theyll do a less than thorough job on this.  If the report is done by July (which is where the commission want the deadline extended), can they really not release the report till after the election??

        Got any links? I'm interested

        There haven't been any major assassinations in this country in quite some time.

        by Jesu G6K on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:43:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  The problem is the mo (none)
    A Dean second place with 25% wouldn't be so bad, if he hadn't gone from being double digits ahead of Kerry to double digits behind him in a month.  The swing from Dean to Kerry has been 25 percentage points or more.

    Dean was in the lead in Iowa polls until a couple of weeks before the caucuses, only  to come in third place on the day.

    Polls nationally and in early primary states show that the crushing defeat in Iowa has destroyed Dean's standing elsewhere.  A NH defeat to someone who has won in both Iowa and NH is huge.

    February 3 was going to be a difficult batch of states for Dean, but for a while he was leading there across the board.  Now, it looks like Dean is likely to fail to get a single win through Feb. 3, even if he does place and get delegates.

    It is one thing to improve from a second place finish when you are on an upswing, it is another when you were expected to be a strong first place finisher and don't deliver.

    The other problem is that even if Lieberman doesn't officially drop out, support for him will tank in the next couple of weeks.  A no show in Iowa, and a 5th place in NH is no way to build a successful campaign.  And, the votes Lieberman loses will not go to Dean.

    •  So wait... (none)
      If double digits to single in a month = bad momentum, then what does single digits to double in a week equal?

      "Weapons of mass destruction including evil chemistry and evil biology are all matters of great concern..." -- John Ashcroft"

      by ChicagoDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:38:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kerry can stumble (none)
    Front running is the worst spot for Kerry.  

    Both elections have been referendums on Howard Dean.  Now that he stops being the "it" girl, Kerry gets the focus.  While he has more love out there in TV land, he still sounds like Thurston Howell.  

    As for Dean, the retail voters rejected him both times.  I am a deanie until the last dog dies.  They all look pretty sick.

    I think that Dean needs a win.  He needs to find a winnable state and just take it.  If he can do that, great.  If he doesn't win anything next Tuesday, then someone will have to explain another strategy to me.  

    My money would be on Edwards.  But this fourth place and sinking doesn't bode well.

    Finally, isn't one of the most important stories out of NH the relative deaths of Clark and Lieberman?  

    Enjoy every sandwich-Warren

    by barr on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:35:59 PM PST

  •  It ain't over until it's over. (none)
    I'd just as soon wait for February 3 before writing off either Dean or Clark and maybe not even then.

    Kerry has significant vulnerabilities and others will spell these out.

    Edwards also has the inevitable limitation of youth: not enough time on the clock. Granted JFK pulled it off - a charismatic, youthful, and smart Democratic senator from New England. But it isn't 1960 any more and we are in a terrible pickle on both domestic and international fronts.

    I do think that Lieberman will be no more than a bit player at the national convention if he manages to make a 15% cut somewhere along the line and Kucinich regretfully is a voice crying in the wilderness. And Sharpton as well.

    But let's not jump to conclusions, media hype notwithstanding.  

    Archimedes had it right!

    by fmarkus on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:36:09 PM PST

  •  Cherry Picking Season for Clark, Dean, Edwards (none)
    Whereas Clark and Dean were the candidates who have built national campaigns, the Kerry victories mean a change in strategy must take place to keep their candidacies alive.  Clark et al. must concentrate on THEIR STRONGEST STATES and give up on any plan to compete equally hard in all remaining contests.  For Clark, this means MO, OK, and AZ.  For Dean, it means AZ, DE, and WI.  For Edwards, it's SC.   Bottom line is this--if Dean, Edwards, and Clark split the vote, Kerry wins. Kerry must be forced to get over 40% of the vote in any state for a victory, and I don't think he can win mano a mano against Clark, Dean, or Edwards in their strong states.   Kerry is winning on a divide and conquer strategy and the other campaigns have to use resources well and not spread out too thin.
  •  Be Rational (none)
    Clark is still viable.  Who knows what is going to happen in the future?  Clark needs to find a way to get back on track and generate some excitement.  Maybe Madonna can cast him in a video. I think he can still win - calling Bill Clinton -are you there?
    Futhermore, I think that taking shots at Markos is childish.
  •  dean/clark (none)
    someone upthread posted this but what about clark accepting dean's vp slot and having them run together?

    also, what about this "bring it on" coming from kerry?
    if that happened at dean's campaign, would he be angry?

    just curious...

  •  JOHN KERRY IS A WINNER! (none)
    Bring it on! Bring it on! Bring it on!

    Spare me pathetic whining about un-electability from the partisans of a candidate who has raised and spent more money than anyone else--and still has not won a thing! The man who is winning is the man who will win in November.

    We're coming.
    You're going.
    And don't let the door hit you on the way out!

  •  paranoid exit poll (2.00)
    I remain absolutely flabbergasted at the paranoia and grandiose delusions of the Dean partisans.  There has been barely a glimmer of acknowledgment that Dean's demise has any relationship to anything that Dean or his organziation has said or done.  I've been involved in political campaigns since 1972 and I've never seen anything remotely like it.  Dean's supporters are the Democratic version of the Republican black helicopter crowd.

    Whine less, win more

    by TigerTears on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:38:11 PM PST

    •  Well said (none)
      I've been convinced since I first saw Dean that he is his own worst enemy, and his supporters come in a very close second.  

      That's from someone who agrees with about 95% of Dean's positions.  

  •  Kerry's got Joementum (none)
    Look at him! There's life in his eyes, he looks happy for the first time, and he got a haircut!
  •  Edwards-Clark (none)
    Edwards now some 700 votes behind Clark with 2/3 of the vote in.  Not looking good.
  •  Pardon the Interruption: Still Watching Results (none)
    Dean picked up another point of margin.

    Clark currently ahead of Edwards, but VERY tight. (Yes, the order is important.)

    Kerry estimated to get 14 delegates, Dean 8, everyone else zero (according to CNN).

    But still over one third of the precincts still due.

    Listening to Kerry victory speech. I apologize in advance for saying this, but (yawn).

    Pilots for Dean: Climb and maintain victory!

    by sipples on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:39:04 PM PST

  •  Well, Dean IS currently "winning".. (none)
    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/primaries/pages/scorecard/index.html

    He has more delegates than Kerry at this point. :)

  •  My two cents (4.00)
    I think the only thing this race has proved is that it's 2004. It's not 2000, it's not 1992, it's not 1988, it's not 1972, it's 2004. Alot of shit happened this election that's never happened before, and I have a feeling that alot of shit has yet to happen. I agree that it's very unlikely Dean will pull out of this, but if anyone can, it's Dean. And only in 2004.

    PS: Kerry's making me sick. This is why I like Dean, and it's compleatly subjective: When I listen to Dean, I believe him. When I listen to Kerry, it just seems like same-old same-old political promises and platitudes. I repeat, though, this is compleatly subjective.

    Personally, it feels like ever since the 2000 election debacle, we've been in a giant movie.

    by Pluto101 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:43:04 PM PST

  •  who are the wealthy Americans (none)
    The term "wealthy Americans" is such a flip/flop statement.  Everybody thinks they are in the middle class and everybody thinks that somebody is wealthier than them.  This is the problem with the establishment candidate, they don't lead they just want to protect their status quo.
  •  Kerry's Victory Speech Bland (none)
    Same old bland drivel from the Establishment Wing of the Party, punctuated by the same old corny whoops and hoots endemic to the type of political hacks and sycophants who are so common in the Party's Boston elitist wing... Yawn....

    Wake the Fuck Up!   Dean, Edwards, Clark... any Dem but Kerry in 2004.

  •  You should really say... (none)
    "Watch the establishment rally around Bush."

    And I've decided, I'm not voting for Kerry.  I'm going to write Dean in on the ballot.  I just wish I was in a swing state so I could actually do some damage.  

    The faster this country hits bottom the better.  It's one thing to have a belligerent country that sucks.  It's another thing to have a belligerent country that happens to be a super power.  The sooner we go down in flames the better-- for the sake of the rest of the world.  

    Feel free to disagree-- it's your right to be wrong!

    by Asak on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:44:07 PM PST

    •  dude (4.00)
      not cool.
      i don't like kerry.
      but to say that "the faster this country hits bottom the better" is really immature.
      it's really ridiculous considering how many people's lives are affected by bush. kerry may not be ideal but he gives those on the margin of survival a better chance.
      bush is a disaster.

      voting for president is not some utopian exercise.
      and i think it's stupid that progressives put so much stock in it while ignoring local/state elections where we have more power. before someone progressive will ever win we must have a strong base. we don't have that now. the top-down is no way to create change. it comes from the bottom up.
      a kerry win over bush gives those at the bottom much more breathing room.
      hold your nose, vote ABB.
      and work your ass at the local level for progressive issues.

      face it- we cannot win by only targeting the white house for progressive change! it's a stupid idea with no chance of sustaining any progressive change.

    •  bottom (none)
      I'm sure people like the kids thrown off supplemental social security and the state foster care program workers sucking for money all thank you for your purity.  Life must be tough for you pecking out your outrage at your computer screen. I'm sure your self-righteousness comforts you, though.
  •  Clark widening third-place margin (none)
    71% in

    Kerry     54668 39%
    Dean      35992 25%  
    Clark     17891 13%  
    Edwards   17161 12%  
    Lieberman 12674 9%

    More than 700 votes, with mainly remote precincts outstanding.  I think Clark gets third.

    "Capitalism without rules is like a hockey game without a referee."--Howard Dean

    by BTP on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:44:24 PM PST

  •  Uh uh, Act 2 hasn't started..... (none)
    It's got magnolias in the background.

    I'm a Deanie who don't touch the koolaid.

    It's Edwards I'd be worrying about.  The south.  THE SOUTH.

    Thought about what Edwards going to say when he steps back onto the land of Dixie?

    If Dean don't drop out until late, or stays in right up to the convention, who will supporters go to?  Kerry?  Uh uh.  

    Who has the least amount of bad blood with Dean people?  Edwards.

    Ever play right shoulder tag where everybody is it?  Know who wins the most games?  The one who hangs by the wall and waits.

    Dean has got to shake up the voters' way of thinking and I mean the voters who are not disaffected or its Edwards or Clark.

    Also, where the hell is Carol Mosley Braun?

    VP pick?

    "And that puts you inside the White House."

    by blown cue on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:45:40 PM PST

    •  Thank you for putting all that in perspective (none)
      It's just a shame I had to read the rest of your post to get to the good part at the end. Carol Moseley Braun for Veep? Classic Deaniac. Another one who doesn't exactly have a headlock on reality. Grab the reins, hombre, you're falling off.
  •  Oh well. (none)
    I've stated that I'm with Dean until he wins, loses, quits or dies. And I am.

    However, I don't see how he's going to recover from a fifteen point margin of loss. So my volunteer efforts for him stop here. I'll vote for him in the primary, but that's it.

    Right now I'm hoping for a Kerry-Edwards ticket. I don't like either of them, but I like them better than Bush, and that's what's really important. Once John Kerry gets a lock on the nomination, I'm going to campaign like hell for him.

  •  I don't agree with Kos (4.00)
    I think Dean is in trouble, but he caught himself from outright disaster today. His 25.3% is a significant comeback from where he was polling just a few days ago, when it looked as if even Edwards or Clark might edge him out. He's more than duplicated their vote.

    You have to look at momentum (not Joementum). Dean turned his around from virtual freefall to fairly steady to some gains. His ability to have partly recuperated from "the scream" is impressive. It's not a victory, but it is an accomplishment.

    Another issue is that Dean drove the dynamic of this campaign. Kerry was a follower and not a very good one. I do not believe in Kerry's recent discovery of leadership. I think his act will get old (it already is).

    Dean must still re-frame the campaign. He did good damage control but we are missing a second act. If we see one and it's good, I still think he can do this. Kerry has practical problems to deal with (money, etc.), and simply does not credibly represent change. Edwards will also take many anti-Dean votes in the South.

    Down, yes, but not out at all. Remember the "aura of inevitability"? premature predictions are just that, premature.

    And Kos's crystal ball, as has been pointed out, has proven to be fairly cloudy on a number of occasions.

    Still for Dean, after the scream.

    by M Aurelius on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:46:54 PM PST

  •  Spin! (none)
    Nice spin there, Kos. How can we tell that you've been against Dean from day 1? What's the matter, mad that he made your boy Clark look like a stuffed shirt?

    Face it: Dean's doing INCREDIBLY, given the sheer weight of the attacks against him. From media spin to dirty tricks by the Kerry campaign (confirmed push polling, anti-Dean robocalls that claim to be from the Dean campaign, pressuring voters, handing out insulting pamphlets outside rallies, the list goes on and on) to huge hordes of Republicans voting just to keep him out (as high as 40%-60% of the voters in some precincts), he's taken it all and he's still going.

    Dean and Edwards are the ONLY electable candidates. The RNC has far too much dirt on Kerry or Clark for them to win the GE. Lieberman? Don't make me laugh! And even Edwards is borderline, as he'll be broke by September and wide open for attacks from the multi-million dollar war chests accumulated by both the Bush campaign and the RNC.

    Of course, the DNC wants Kerry in, because he's an "old school" Democrat. Which is exactly why he's NOT ELECTABLE.

    •  Now, here is a truly insane Deaniac. (1.00)
      Even by the standards of this site, we have here a truly lunatic Deaniac. Thinks Kos hates Dean? Thinks Kos favors Clark?

      What a freaking nutjob. Jeebus, all the crazy Deaniacs are crawling out from under their rocks tonight. Someone switch on the lights and make these cockroaches scatter.

  •  No way Clark is anybody's VP (none)
    Unless he's got an eight year plan.

    I think Clark is SICK of being 2nd....nth in command.

    Might get my ass handed to me on that prediction, but I can write a check with mouth to cover.

    "And that puts you inside the White House."

    by blown cue on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:49:28 PM PST

  •  I'm a nasty little Deaniacophobic, koolaid drinkin (4.00)
    delusionac mofo.  Or so I've been told.  So fuck y'all and your cardboard candidates.  Dean's candidacy is all about changing rules of the game.

    Honestly, I'll walk into that booth in November with a clothespin on my nose and do my duty as an American to beat back the right-wing nutjobs.

    But I will harbor no false hopes that John Kerry or any of the other establishment-ordained candidates are going to deliver national healthcare for my family, or civil unions for my friends, or anything more than a glossed-over business-as-usual for the environment and foreign policy.  And especially business-as-usual for the media conglomerates which are sponsoring this charade called "Presidential Election 2004" tm.  

    You spoke the truth, Howard.  "I don't care what [the media] thinks of me, you're in the entertainment business".

    One good thing out of all this.  I've ditched what's considered "Liberal" media for good.   The Dean campaign has fired up a lot of young folks and communities like DailyKos.   Kos, somehow I doubt we're going to be along for the ride if Kerry or Edwards takes this all the way.

    I just can't see the attraction of coming to DailyKos to discuss the ins and outs of another top-down, grassroots-blind, technologically-defunt old-world model. Your dad's presidential campaign.

    I'd rather go cat blogging.

    Onwards.

    •  What do you expect from this sort? (none)
      fuck y'all and your cardboard candidates

      Right back at you, chump. Your boy lost and all you've got are tears and profanity and threats to walk away. Good riddance. It's addition by subtraction.

      Another child clutches his/her doll and stomps away in tears. Pah.

    •  keep it on... (none)
      Hey Random, this community has more Mo' than either Dean or Kerry.  We'll be around, and I hope you stay a stand-up part of it.

      Hear it? The Oracle cries the demise of He-Who-Lies. And the rise... of civil America.

      by Civil Sibyl on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:26:08 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Back to the Future (none)
    January 27, 2005

    (AP)  As the country mobilizes to invade Iran, President George W. Bush,  announced that he has instructed Attorney General Ashcroft to close down "Evil Blogs" that coach people on how to legally evade the newly established Military Draft.

    In other news, Dick Cheney, touring Army Divisions along the Iranian border, commented that Colin Powell presentation today of WMD in Syria "as disturbing," noting the "Syria must give up its Nuclear capacity or face the resolution of the world."

    On other Fronts, Governor Jeb Bush made his 3 visit to Iowa, commenting on the importance of Ethanol and the new "mineral reclamation project" in the former Artic National Wildlife Refuge, to reduce the country's dependency  from Mid-East oil, given the current climate in Iran.

  •  Ummm. Dare I ask? (none)
    What do the retings mean? The two boxes? I can't find any explanations. A post I wrote was given a 4.00 and some other next to it. Does this mean people rate me an a** for somethingthing I posted?  
     
    •  A 4.00 is cool (none)
      It's like college. 4.0 is the best. 0.0 means the trustees want you off campus.

      We still don't quite agree on what two to three means, but it's the mushy middle, roughly speaking.

      Still for Dean, after the scream.

      by M Aurelius on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:03:41 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is used to determine (none)
      trusted user status on the site.  4 is good, 1 is bad.  Below 1 gets your posts hidden from view.  Trusted users can rate posts.  A mathematical evaluations of all your posts taken together is your "mojo" on the site which is a predictor of how thoughtful you are and is used to determine trusted user status.

      It is also a way to complement fellow users on posts well done.

      •  thank you... (none)
        For taking the time to answer my question.  It just seems odd to me - hardly any posts seem to be rated. But,I've seen angry trolls with numbers after posts. I think? Or maybe I haven't. I don't know.  I attribute my confusion and dementia to trying to imagine Kerry vs. Bush. I don't know why it gives me a stomach ache, but it does. Maybe it's because I already heard Howard Awfulman on MSNBC saying that Kerry was way to the left of Hillary. I see Karl using this ALL over the South. Dean comes across as a middle of the road moderate compared to that Kerry record. According to them.

        Go away South. just please go away.

  •  Kos saves the Dean Campaign!!! (none)
    With all due respect to our generous host, he does not have the greatest record with respect to predictions:

    2002

    The Recall

    Iowa

    New Hampshire

    Ari

    Based solely on this record, I predict a Dean-Vermin Supreme ticket will emerge.

  •  No wonder (4.00)
    No wonder democrats are losers. They are so afraid. Afraid of the Republican media machine. Democracts if polled say they fall behind Kerry because they want to beat Bush not because they are inspired by John Kerry. If you want to beat Bush that you need to stand up to the media, stand up to the pundits. Bush is weak. Bush is weak. He is so full of holes you could drive a hummer thru him.
  •  73% reporting (none)
    Kerry at 38.3%
    Dean at 25.8%
    Clark at 12.6%
    Edwards at 12%
    Lieberman at 8.8%

    If the trends are consistent for the rest of the night, I'm guessing we'll see 37.5% vs 26.5% and 13% vs 12%  Lieberman close to 8%

    Nobody got the results they really, really wanted.

    Kerry wanted to poll cleanly over 40--probably 42-45%, enough to have it be close to a majority to spin it that way.

    Dean wanted to eke out a bare win... or at least close within a couple points of Kerry.

    Clark and Edwards each wanted to remain in easy reach of Dean (and to leave the other behind, cleanly (more than 5 points).

    All the campaigns trudge off to 2/3 with bruises, limps, lacerations and scrapes.  Kerry and Edwards are probably best off in general perception (Kerry's been winning... Edwards did very well in Iowa and better than expected in NH).  Clark did better than Edwards, but not as well as his free throw time in NH led people to expect.  Dean's still in recovery from Iowa... but it's recovery, it appears, rather than down and out.

  •  lieberman's lost it (4.00)
    with 74% of precincts currently reporting clark ~13%/edwards ~12%/lieberman ~9%; joe claims he's in a "three-way tie for 3rd".

    and they said dean's speech in iowa was nuts.  sheesh.

    these candidates go to eleven

    by zeke L on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:59:38 PM PST

  •  Elvis: A Legendary Performer (none)
    Clark lived in NH the past two months, skipping Iowa. Edwards came in the last week. The momentum is clearly with Edwards.

    Third or a close fourth doesn't mean Clark's done, but it does make SC that much more important for him.

    Edwards has beat expectations two times in a row -- although granted, he's just barely beat them here. With him, provided he can take SC, it's all about money: can he convince some big-money people (plus some who've fallen off the Dean bandwagon) that he has "Elvis" and Kerry does not? A sufficient amount of "Elvis" (thank you, Molly Ivins) is something that, coupled with a faltering economy and war scenario, might be enough to keep the Dem nominee competitive.
  •  Clark is finished 3rd place is crap!!! (1.50)
    Clark spent a month in NH alone!!! All he could do was a lousy weak third behind a guy that spent 1 week in the state??? Edwards is the real anti-Kerry now. Dean is toast and his supporters should come onboard with the Edwards camp. No NE LIMO LIBERAL is going to win this fall!!! Kerry's only hope now is too find some southern that will be his VP. WHO??? That won't even be enough IMHO. All you Kerry fans wake up to reality your handing us over to Rove and company your guy is Dukakis on thorazine.
    •  That's chutzpah (none)
      Edwards has been running for over a year, during which time he hasn't exactly layed keep-away- from-New Hampster; e.g.,
      http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/nh052003/edwnhhq0503o.html
      http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/nh102002/edwards.html
      Clark beat Edwards in their only face-to-face matchup after getting into the game only a few months ago.  Other than his birth state, Edwards leads Clark in the polls in none of the 2/3 states.  And Clark is the one who should get out?  They're both strong candidates, and this should play out, particularly in batttleground states like AZ and NM.
      •  Clark vs. Edwards for VP (none)
         Clark doesn't have Edwards skills as a campaigner not even close. He's riding on a wave to nowhere. Edwards is going to accept Kerry's call to join his ticket as VP soon anyway so that will be that. Kerry sure as hell doesn't need the General trying to out rank him again. Edwards with his Sunny winning way will be sent south to seduce enough southerners and westerners to vote for Kerry the same way LBJ was sent in 61'. It's all reversed now though in a funny kind of way isn't it? Bush is Nixon though and this election is going to be very very close so John Edwards could be the margin of victory Kerry will need. After his I don't need the south statements he has to bring a southerner on the ticket to show the south he cares. Bush can still be defeated but the odds are against us now with a LIMO Liberal at the top of the ticket that's for sure. I'd much rather seen Edwards or Clark there but the voters disagree.
  •  even coming in second we ARE WINNERS! (4.00)
    look, even coming in second we ARE WINNERS!

    www.nornsisland.com

    by n69n on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:05:33 AM PST

  •  PNAC (none)
    I wonder where will PNAC will hold their Victory party when Bush trounces Kerry?

    Woh, Is that David Brooks dancing on a table with a lamp shade on his head?

    hey, Did you see Perle kissing Judy Woodwuff?

    Besides Wolf Blizter, who's the shortest one hear?  or it's Dick Cheney!

  •  It's still a little early... (none)
    to be counting out one of only three candidates with pledged delegates.

    Particularly since that candidate is likely still #1 in cash on hand.

    And in superdelegates.

    And in organization in the Feb. 3rd states.

    I am still with Dean.

    Kerry is the front-runner, agreed. Wait 'til he gets the full-blown front-runner treatment. He's gonna fold.

    "And life is grand/And I will say this at the risk of falling from favor/With those of you who have appointed yourselves/To expect us to say something darker"

    by Oregon Bear on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:10:00 AM PST

  •  Dean done, still a path for Edwards (none)
    Dean folks need to get real and stop threatening to bolt the party and stay home come november.  They might as well pull the lever for Bush.  Don't see where Dean can win next week.  Missori will never go for him, SC, OK, no way.  Maybe Az or Nm but they're they'll have to take on Kerry and Clark who are doing better than he is in pretty much all the polls.

    Edwards has a shot if he can take SC and OK and make a play for MO.  Clark will spend his time in OK and AZ, Kerry in MO, NM and AZ and Uncle Joe's last stand is also AZ. I think with only a week to go, people will conceded SC to Edwards, at least until Friday if polls come out giving someone else a chance there.  Missori is anyone's game, Kerry gets a bounce and Dean goes down (for having lost a huge lead and not really come that far back) and Clark goes down for having lost so much ground in the last week.  

    That being said, if Dean can't win next week he's got to get out. hording money until NY and Cali would be horrible for the Dems as a whole.  

    Great night for Kerry, but get behind Edwards!! He'll take it to Bush and make him campaign in Louisiana, Arkansas, the Carolinas and help our Senate campaings down there.  Dean folks, time to get off the high horse and show how much you want to change this country by getting behind a more electable Democrat.

    •  Dean, five seconds? (none)
      I don't think it's inconceivable that Dean could place second in AZ, NM, MO, DE, ND. If three candidates split the first places, he might have reason to play for MI, NY, and CA—where he could do well. If Kerry wins AZ, NM, DE, and MO all, that might well be the end.

      It's definitely still to early for Dean to quit.

      The other question: this week, the focus on electability gave us an opportunity to highlight much of what's bad about Bush. High time we drove his negatives up!

  •  Wait a second... (none)
    Even allowing for the perception problems, my count is one second place finish for Dean & one for Edwards.  Why figure that Dean is out & Edwards still in?

    BTW, for all those folks who write off Dean in the South, you simply have no idea how deeply rooted populism is down here.  Dean's already picked up endorsements from

  •  Bush won tonight (none)
    This is what makes me crazy about the Democrats.  They just keep making the same mistakes over and over again.

    Kerry electable against Bush?  The former lt. gov. to Dukakis with the ultra liberal voting record except when it comes to standing up to Bush votes?  The Republicans will shred him.  The NRA hates him-he won't take a single vote in the South or the West.  

    Edwards will need more than being cute and nice.  After Rove gets done with him, he'll wish he was never entered politics.

    Dean was the only one with a record to stand up to Bush.  Unforetunatley, no one in the media or Democratic party bothered looking at the records.  No we're stuck with a weak liberal nominee who will get slaughtered by the Republicans.

    Time to leave the Democratic party and try to find a way for moderate Republicans to change the Republican party.  The Democrats just don't learn.

  •  Dean stanches the bleeding (2.50)
    Dean is finishing a good 12 points behind Kerry, but he's 13 ahead of Clark. As far as I can tell, he has one more week—maybe even a little longer—to do something about
    • He needs to raise his "electable against Bush" numbers;
    • He needs to be more voters' second choice, especially Clarkies (Clark is on life support after his under-the-threshold finish tonight)
    Why Kerry is seen as more electable (I wouldh ave put Clark and Edwards ahead of him) mystifies me. Perhaps the comparison of Kerry in camo and Bush in his pretend-pilot getup is more compelling than I think.

    I should add, I see today as a down-arrow for Edwards. Remember, we also need a candidate who can carry Pennsylvania and Michigan.

    •  Considering the source... (none)
      I'll definitely listen to comeback predictions from a guy named Lazarus. ;^)

      I was really hoping for a closer NH finish between Dean and Kerry, but it ain't that bad being one of the two candidates taking home some delegates.  

      Dean managed to gain back a fair piece of the post-Iowa drop and he's certainly got his work cut out for him going into the 2/3 contests. Nothing near to ideal, but we've still got material to work with. I'm enthusiastically sticking with Dean for the duration.

      Time to head over and hit the bat again.

    •  KeithH, you gave this post a ZERO?!?!? (none)
      So I didn't say optimistic things about Edwards. There's still no way the post conforms to the rules about zero ratings.

      I won't hesitate to ask Kos to revoke your Trusted User status. I might also reply in kind.

  •  Kudos to Kos for facing reality (3.00)
    It will come in handy to save this site from becoming an irrelevant outpost of frustrated Deaniacs.  Inevitably, many of the Dean camp will fade away from posting regularly, and supporters of other candidates (or more generalised ABB Democrats), who might have found this place a little intimidating previously, will fill in the gap.  I embrace this change, and look forward to a bright future here at Kos!  :)

    Alan, Maverick Leftist "Do not despair; life wins." - Elie Wiesel

    by SlackerInc on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:19:47 AM PST

    •  We aren't going anywhere (3.75)
      I don't come to Kos for Dean. I've never even met the man. He's the best of the lot and I will support him till he's nominated or quits, but if he can't hack it, on to the next issue: November.

      I come here as a member of a community that believes in a roughly shared set of values. This community exists regardless of Dean running or not.

      And I really don't think Kos made his predicition to keep traffic. I think he said it because he likes to make bleeding-edge affirmations. Kos's predictive IQ is less than stellar, and in this case that's a good thing.

      Still for Dean, after the scream.

      by M Aurelius on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:34:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What are "bleeding-edge affirmations"? (none)
        And btw, I don't think Kos was necessarily thinking (only) of his traffic.  I think he doesn't want to live in a land of denial, rather wants to move forward, carry on the fight.

        Alan, Maverick Leftist "Do not despair; life wins." - Elie Wiesel

        by SlackerInc on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:43:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  word play (none)
          "bleeding edge" is word play for "leading edge". A reference, for tech people at least, to being right at the border of the future, with a reminder that it's a place where you can also get some cuts and bruises. I'm saying Kos likes to do premature predicting or speculating, a risky sport. He's far from the only blogger to do this. Tacitus, for instance, predicted Saddam would use chem/bio weapons on the coalition forces.

          Still for Dean, after the scream.

          by M Aurelius on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:08:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  You better hope not... (none)
      That the Dean supporters fade away.  Christ, what's up with that? You talk about ABB supporters, and exclude Dean supporters? Don't treat them as if they're gnats on a piece of krappin' fruit.   This place will not be better off without them.   When all is said and done, a lot of us will have to swallow a bitter pill and vote for the candidate who's running against that Idiot. Me voting for Kerry makes me want to down fifteen bottles of Risperdal, but I'll do it. And hopefully, so will they. But posts like that, practically telling them go, won't help.

      Anyway, this party needs every phonebanker, canvasser, doorknocker it can get. My greatest fear is that. They go away, and the Dems die another slow death.  And hoping they leave this board is very sad.

  •  Nope. Not yet, not ready to quit working for Dean (4.00)
    I'll fight in the present for the future for which I wish to have rather than let one possible future outcome cause me to give up in the present.

    "And that puts you inside the White House."

    by blown cue on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:24:48 AM PST

  •  Republicans vote overwhelmingly for Kerry (none)
    Registered Republicans (were they allowed to vote??) went 41/16 Kerry/Dean. (CNN)

    What were those rumors about Republicans crossing over to vote for "unelectable" Dean?  Looks like they all would prefer to take on Kerry.

    •  can't vote (none)
      registered republicans can't vote. they can re-register as independents but I kind of coubt that a small number of people who took the time to re-register would make a very large dent in the results.
  •  a name and a number (none)
    Bill Clinton, 1992.

    still no fat lady.

    me talk pretty one day.

    by mudskipper on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:44:37 AM PST

  •  Feb 3 (none)
    It all hinges on how well Kerry stands-up to front-runner blues. Dean has pretty well had the worst of it, and it seems it can only get better for him, particularly, if there are no more gaffes, and he is treated as a serious candidate. If Kerry cracks, Dean may recover, but I fear there may be not enough time or scrutiny for this to happen.

    There is also the Edwards factor. If Dean is seen as finished, then voters will be deciding between Edwards and Kerry. Kerry has momentum, but he will be identified as a northern liberal. This will be especially sharp if attention is drawn to his voting record, which mirrors Senator Kennedy's, and doesn't really support Kerry's borrowed anti-establishment dogma.

    A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. -Emerson

    by fitzov rules on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:51:19 AM PST

  •  a botox moment (none)
    Kinda hate to do this but check out

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1059147/posts

    Them freepers can make me laugh out loud from time to time.

    "Isn't life disappointing?" "Yes it is."

    by ubarquat on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 12:54:14 AM PST

  •  Which States will Kerry win in the South? (none)
    Which States will Kerry win in the South? Which ones? Well? This is silly. Kerry's got at least as much (or more) yankee baggage as Dean going into the South. He's all but written it off. And Kerry's also right next door to NH, so there's no reason his victory is any more surprising than Dean's loss.

    In any case, just wait for Kerry to start looking inevitable, then he'll start getting the treatment...

  •  Am not giving up (none)
    Am disapointed that Dean didn't recover fully, but to declare him dead at this point is unimaginable to me.
    He's had these things to contend with:
    1. A hostile media
    2. A hostile Dem leadership - esp DLC
    3. Vicious attacks by Gephardt, dirty tricks by Clark and Kerry Campaigns, attacks from Sharpton
    (with Clinton aide for campaign manager and Nixon era Republican dirty trickster Roger Whats-is-name).
    1. Terry McAwful who should have kept order, but  who winked at all the crud that was going on
    2. A "gamed' Iowa caucus with Gephardt throwing half his votes to Kerry manufacturing a sudden and mysterious surge in the last two days.
    Now you may say this is a raving of a bitter Democrat.  I'm here to tell you I withdrew my membership in the State Party when I heard about the gaming in Iowa.
    Dean is the best candidate since Bobbie Kennedy.
    I will not be pushed down. I will keep sending money to DFA and I will work my tail off.
    Because every day that Dean survives as a candidate is a thumb in the eye of the weak sisters of the Dem establishment who have blown off the voters for the past 3 years.
    When and if Dean decides to give up I'll call down blessings on him and retire from this fray.
  •  Premature Nomination (4.00)
    You know, it's getting a little annoying that people are confusing analysis with prognostication. I find the latter pointless and self serving. It can be fun in small doses, but it's masquerading as analysis too much here and elsewhere. (See Alterman's "argument" that Kerry is the best presidential candidate.)

    I think it's a bit ridiculous to proclaim the race over. Didn't we have enough of that after Gore's endorsement, after Dean piled up millions in contributions? (Hey to Florida 2000)

    To extrapolate from two states is bogus. To say that Edwards is the likely other horse is the two-horse race of conventional wisdom is just not logical. Dean finished a strong 2nd in NH, and Edwards did in Iowa. And you're discounting Dean because of the Southern states? Gore had a Southern strategy in '88 and Jesse Jackson mucked it up for him. It's very possible that Feb 3 will yield multiple winners, so the race continues to possibly more Dean-favorable states 2/7 and 2/8.  

    Besides, as we see from this (admittedly dated) summary of Feb 3 races, Dean has leads in Delaware and New Mexico, and who knows what will happen in Missouri now that Gephardt is out.

    It could happen as Kos says. Or it may not. This prophesizing, though, stands to be self-fulfilling if everyone starts repeating it. I find it amusing that Dean is considered through in one statement and that "unexpected can and does happen" is uttered in the next.

  •  My two bits... (none)
    Kerry is doing well because he's decided to use fear (Dean is "unelectable"), stature/seniority within the national Democratic party, and the occasional dirty trick to take two primaries.  

    He's been able to take advantage of the outpouring of anti-Bush feeling created by Dean's campaign to seal the deal in Iowa and New Hampshire, and the media's present dislike for Dean (which I suspect will turn to Kerry eventually, but I suspect not unless/until after he's received the nomination).  A lot of established party money will start to flow his way, because they, like the press and the party old guard, don't want to be made irrelevent by Dean's campaign.

    If Dean and Clark could combine their efforts, we'd have a viable force to counter Kerry.  Unfortunately, I think Clark would never join up with Dean.  I also think Clark is likely to fail in future primaries, though I could be wrong - he had New Hampshire to himself for a while and as soon as the competition came to town, he was slammed hard.  I suspect he doesn't have the necessary staying power for future races.

    Edwards should be hoping for a collapse of the Dean cmapaign - the sooner the better.  He isn't going to get a lot of cash unless Clinton takes his side publically (which he won't), and without cash, even a win in South Carolina will be phyrric because he won't have the necessary gound operation anywhere else.

    Dean....well, Dean's my guy.  He's still the second-strongest candidate nationally.  But we've got to get off the dime or we're just going to be the folks the media make fun of in Boston, and that in turn will cause a lot of good people to sit on their hands that whoever wins the primaries will badly, badly need.  A lot of my folks are the hardest workers in the streets - they're the people any campaign would kill for.  Most of us simply won't fold during the primaries.  And whoever takes the nomination can't afford to isolate us.  Otherwise, the media will work overtime to show once again that there's no difference between the Democratic nominee and Bush, and that plus apathy spells a loss.

    The wild card will be whether fear of Bush can trump fear of, or resignation over, whoever the Democratic candidate is.

    Stay tuned.

    •  Dean isn't finished unless he gives up. (none)
      The New Hampshire primary isn't the endgame for anyone except "Mighty Joe," and it really isn't the endgame for Dean. Frankly, given the media's negativity on Dean and the dirty campaign tricks, I think Dean's solid second-place showing should put to rest any doubt about his "electability." Because whoever gets the nod will have to deal with this shit from Rove. At this point, Dean's had the negative spotlight a lot more than anyone else in this primary.

      Sure, the establishment money is going to flow into Kerry's coffers but as long as Dean can stay on message, he can still make this the "Establishment Dems" vs. the "Reform Dems" and that's where he has the fundraising edge...

      And yeah, I'm gonna cite the '92 primaries as a good analogy b/c Dean also had to come back...

      Brown       9%    
      Clinton    26%         
      Kerrey     12%   
      Harkin     10%       
      Tsongas    34%         
      Cuomo*      3% 

  •  Take the marbles home (4.00)
    I'm sorry, no more lesser evilism for me. I don't pretend to be ideologically pure, but I'm unmoved by arguments that go something like this: "Kerry isn't perfect, but think of how much worse another four-years of Bush will be on those at the margins of society." This is the problem with the Democrats, they don't have a proactive agenda, since the Reagan era began, the Democrats only agenda has been stopping the worst excesses of the opposition. As an end result the Republicans continue to define the debate, and push the body politic further and further to the right. How are the people on the margins today, or people who may be on those margins in the future any better off with a status quo Democrat in the White House? We'd all agree that Clinton was better than Bush, but what did Clinton do for the poor, or the disenfranchised? What reward has attached to progressives who for the last thirty years have held their noses and voted for the Democrat because he was not as bad as his Republican opponent? When do Democrats that keep telling liberals and progressives to just vote for the Democrat because he's not as bad as the Republican owe a debt to the liberals and progressives to back their candidates?

    At the end of the day, there is no greater issue then Iraq. Iraq represents death and destruction in a foreign land, it also sets the parameters for what a president can get away with in the future. If an immoral, illegal and dangerous act of madness isn't to be punished by the electorate, or the political opposition, what does anything matter? Kerry and Edwards should have been punished for their yea votes on Iraq, not rewarded. If we're in Iraq in five-years, and the war has essentially become another Vietnam, do they get a free pass on account that unlike Bush, they weren't actively seeking a war? Does their political cowardice give them a pardon? The standard rejoinder to this is something like "the war isn't important to the voters, or isn't the number one priority of the voters" or something along those lines. If that is true, then God help us all. The war is the only issue, it effects all others, the economy, the budget, foreign relations, everything. If we aren't going to reward politicians for taking the right stands on issues, what incentive is there for any politician to take the right stand?

    What will it take to wake Democrats up? When will they ever learn? The Republicans don't share the Democrats aversion to risk. They put up Reagan, they put up Dubya, and by any rational analysis, neither of those two should have had a chance in hell, but they put them up anyone. Bushco. might be the most venal and incompetent administration in the history of the United States, if ever there was a time to put up an unconventional candidate against the GOP, 2004 was the year to do it. They've made such a mess of things that a candidate that couldn't win in most years, would have had a great shot this year. Instead, we've got more of the same, and if Kerry is the Democratic candidate, and he losses spectacularly, as he most certainly would, where does that leave those poor people on the margins? The human flotsam the Anybody But Bush crowd is so damn concerned about? Where do we go from there? If you can't beat one of the worst presidents in history, with his lies, and his dead bodies in Iraq, and his stagnant economy, what hope is there for the Democrats? Will a disasterous 2004 mean the complete repudiation of Democrats like Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, the Clintons, McAuliff, et al? The Democrats excel at learning lessons four years too late.

    •  Dude, I'm with you (none)
      But man, why does it take so many words to get our points across.

      We need to express the above in a soundbite, maybe two. Where are the pros for this kind of thing?

      Still for Dean, after the scream.

      by M Aurelius on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 02:41:44 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They're cracked anyway (none)
      what did Clinton do for the poor, or the disenfranchised?

      A partial list:
      ---------------

      1. full employment
      2. first real wage gains in a quarter century
      3. tax relief via increased EITC
      4. protected social security and medicare
      5. passed family leave
      These were terribly fragile victories, but that very fragility points to the importance of winning elections.  The same logic applies to Iraq:  I agree as to its centrality, but a Bush victory would bolster the doctrine of preventive war like nothing else.

      It's tempting to think otherwise when the odds are against us, but defeat is not an indirect means to a greater victory in the future.  The victorious future is distant and speculative; the defeat extracts its price here and now.

      •  Take the marbles home anyway (none)
        full employment
        first real wage gains in a quarter century
        tax relief via increased EITC
        protected social security and medicare
        passed family leave

         These were terribly fragile victories, but that very fragility points to the importance of winning elections.  The same logic applies to Iraq:  I agree as to its centrality, but a Bush victory would bolster the doctrine of preventive war like nothing else.

        I'm afraid these are hardly victories of any kind. Let's stop giving Bill Clinton credit for illusory economic prosperity and full employment, we all know the roots of the "new economy" boom, it was a bubble, and the end result was trillions in lost investments, trillions of dollars in capital misdirected into unproductive cul-de-sacs, millions of laid off workers, corporate fraud, and collapsing wages. Whatever credit Clinton could take for temporarily halting a 30-year collapse in wages, he can take equal credit for helping promote an economy that was built on quicksand, an economy that would inevitably burst, and take millions of workers with it. Clinton was more concerned with the stock market and NAFTA then he was with helping the poor, or even the working middle class.

        Four more years of Bush wouldn't strengthen the doctrine of preemptive war, it would destroy it for a generation. Iraq would get progressively worse, and the American people would notice. The U.S. military is stretched so thin now we don't need to worry about further military adventures by Bush. He wants nothing more than for the American people to forget all of those grandiose claims he made about Iraq and WMD, Iraq and AQ, Iraq and democracy, he's not going to revisit the topic again. We won't be picking fights with Syria, or Iran, or North Korea, because they can hit back harder then Iraq could. Four more years of Bush means the possibility of a draft, that would do more to unravel Republican fortunes for a long time then anything Kerry, or Edwards could do.

        It's tempting to think otherwise when the odds are against us, but defeat is not an indirect means to a greater victory in the future.  The victorious future is distant and speculative; the defeat extracts its price here and now.

        Perhaps the only way to accomplish anything meaningful in the future is to lose today. The crowd that advocates voting for the lesser evil need to take partial responsibility for the death of the New Deal by a thousand cuts, because that's what voting for an apathetic Democratic establishment has done. The Republicans are hellbent on destroying the system, and the Democrats are just determined to save as much of it as possible. You can't check the opponent playing defense. Democrats will win when they speak with a single, united megaphone. If we lose this time, in 2008, there won't be any harping about a guy like Dean, every last registered Democrat will be begging for a guy like Dean, and they'll all be saying, we should have backed Dean, or Clark last time. Backing Kerry makes no sense at all, he has the same weaknesses against Bush Dean does without being able to say he opposed the mess in Iraq. He's a less telegenic candidate then Dean, how is he more "electable"? Dems in Iowa and NH killed us.

        •  Take them, but the game goes on (none)
          For what it's worth, I'm a Clark supporter, in part because I see him as the one most capable of an effective offense against Bush (by which I mean: persuading the largest possible number of voters that Bush has failed in his duties).

          So our disagreement is not about candidates, but about two other kinds of things:

          1. The economic history of the late '90s.  You see this as all bubble. I see it as a genuinely broad-based expansion (the first since '61-'69) which, like all expansions (broad-based and narrow alike), was attended by the usual frothy bubbles.

          As I always respond to my conservative friends who make the argument you are making: Clinton is neither entirely blameless for the excesses of the '90's, nor without at least partial credit for the very substantial gains.  But consider the contrast with what followed:

          Bush's mismanagment of fiscal policy has made the hangover far longer and more severe than it needed to be.  But then his goal never was to be an able steward of the economy.  He has a different yardstick: how much can I reward the corporate rich while "starving the beast?"

          2. The logic of losing to win.  I think this is a pure illusion--one of the most pernicious illusions, in fact, in all of political thought.  It comes from thinking of politics as a kind of mechanical task: you have to break some eggs to make an omelette.

          The problem with this way of thinking is that the "eggs" are real people's lives, and these get destroyed here and now.  The "omelette" that is supposed to be delivered sometime in the future never quite arrives--or never quite compensates for the suffering that purchased it.

          In politics, means and ends can't be cleanly separated like this.  The more the goal is pushed out into the future, the more the chosen means shape it and color it.  Go far enough down this road, and there is no present evil one can not rationalize away as the prelude to some future bounty.

  •  The Unexpected (none)
    "...it's that the unexpected can and does happen."

    Dean's front runner status seems to have been illusionary.

    Let's hope Bush's is, too.

    Whoever the Democratic nominee is.

  •  Rumours of Dr. Dean's Death Greatly Exaggerated? (none)
    I agree that it's too early yet to call Dean out.
    Dean's biggest base of support is in many of the biggest states (Michigan, California, New York, Ohio, Illinois . . .) Is the idea that Kerry pick up enough momentum (and money) from finishing first in these first few primaries to sway the Dean supporters and Democratic Primary voters during the next few weeks? He still has the money and support - I just can't fathom how people can say he's dead because he came in second in the first couple of small states where he was expected to finish first.
    I'd also like to comment again on this notion of "electability" or going for "who can beat Bush." Take a look at the Electoral map. The Dems win in November. That is not an issue. This is not about who can beat Bush in some national popularity poll. It's about who can beat Bush in Ohio. And I think Dean can accomplish this as well or better than Kerry can. Look at the map. All the Dems have to do is win Ohio. "And we will."
    I think the Republicans could be in for a few more surprises, as well, such as NH, NV, SC, WV, AK, ND . . . But if Ohio goes Dem - game over
    My hope is people realise we could practically put Mickey Mouse on the ticket in November and beat Bush at this point, and thus vote for the candidate who they truly believe in more than someone with an eye to some false notion of beating Dubya.
    Dean or Kerry? I don't think anyone knows at this point. (Memo to Clark supporters: if you'd like to see your guy as President in eight years, convince him next week to become Dr. Dean's running mate. Wishful thinking, I know.)
  •  He'll be back (none)
    I've got a sneaky feeling that Dean will be back for the 2008 Primaries.  

    I hope Kerry beats Bush, and I think it's possible, but not likely.  Kerry just doesn't negate any of Bush's positives; nobody wants to have a beer with Kerry or have Kerry bestow a nickname upon them.  

    Kerry's anti-gun and pro-environment stances (which I agree with),are going to turn off lots of voters.  His support of the Iraq war and of Bush's economic policies will gun up the Greens, which I expect to run against Kerry.

    It's going to be Bush the good-ol'-boy versus Kerry the polished pol with all the sound and fury sucked out of him and freeze-dried for carefully controlled application.

    Voters are going to smell bullshit from BOTH sides in November.

    "...[O]nce [religion] entered into its unholy alliance with politics, it became the most dangerous and repressive force that the world has ever known."-Robbins

    by Subterranean on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 05:53:13 AM PST

  •  PGP's revised prediction: Kerry-Edwards (none)
    I am in total agreement with Kos's analysis. And it's amazing, three weeks ago I posted in my livejournal that Dean was a fore-gone conclusion. Seems like the voters wanted a say after all. I wrote up these thoughts on my own little blog before coming here toady:

    Wow. 13% advantage for Kerry. This means one thing: Dean is in huge trouble, once they're all heading out of New England.

    I predict Edwards will be the man to watch next Tuesday, he came close to beating Clark yesterday, with Lieberman coming in fifth. That means Edwards did better with one week of campaigning in NH, than Clark and Lieberman did with with two months.

    I will be very surprised if the top three after next weeks primaries aren't Kerry, Dean and Edwards. If that's comes true Clark and Liberman will fold before Michigan 2/7.

    Therefore: I will now go on the record and change my prediction: Right now a Kerry-Edwards ticket is the most likely outcome.

    [Full disclosure: As a spectator, I'm still rooting for Edwards, because this race will benefit from a strong Edwards, also if he's not the nominee.]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site