You can trade the presidential election online at tradesports.com (and maybe other sites I don't know about), which also gives the option of trading on a state by state basis, ie, who will win each state and its electoral votes. The trade is presented as the odds that Bush will win that state. I like to follow the online odds as these are people who are putting their money where their mouth is which I value more than normal polls.
Based on the data at tradesports as of today:
- Bush would win the election with 278 electoral votes to 260 votes for the democratic opponent. That's very very close.
- There are only 7 states where the vote is close. The democrat has a lead of less than 10% in 5 states: Iowa, Michigan, Penn, West Va, and Wisconsin, which totals 60 electoral votes. Bush has a lead of less than 10% in 2 states: New Hampshire and New Mexico, which total 9 votes. This means the dems have more at risk in key swing states and its ticket must hold onto slim leads in several rust belt states to even have a chance.
- According to the betting, Bush now has fairly comfortable leads in Florida, Ohio and Missouri (if you don't agree, go to the site and place a bet and make money). It seems the dems must pick up one of these states to win.
- Overall this shows me what a polarizing figure Bush is as there are so many states that are clearly Blue or Red, regardless of who the dem candidate turns out to be. I'll keep people posted as to changes as the ticket becomes clearer.
The site also has Kerry as 88% favorite to win the nomination, so true believers in Edwards could make good money there as well.