I was in DC last week, and was told by a prominent Democrat that "we won't win the House until 2012. Redistricting works against us."
Me, I'm shooting for 2006, with an outside chance of retaking the House this cycle. But I'm a hopeless, crazy optimist, right? (The answer is "yes".)
Except that if TAP is to be believed, I'm no longer a lonely voice in the wilderness.
"If the president, in the 'in year,' is attacking us before we have a nominee, and he's still trying to consolidate his base, I think there is reason for cautious optimism among Democrats," says one cautiously optimistic Democrat.
The caution is advisable. Republicans have a 228-to-205 advantage in the House, which means that Democrats need a net pickup of 12 seats to win back the House, something most handicapping puts firmly in the long-shot category. Redistricting in Texas alone could add seven seats to the GOP column, but the horses never know the odds. And they look at a recent Kentucky win and see the chance of more to come in South Dakota and Louisiana, when House Commerce and Energy Committee Chairman Billy Tauzin leaves. Among the 45 targeted Republicans, Democrats think they could beat Representatives Rick Renzi in Arizona and Bob Beauprez in Colorado, both freshmen with serious challengers.
But maybe the most noticeable thing is not the new optimism so much as the absence of the old gloom. The disappointment that turned to depression, after Florida in 2000, may finally be in remission.
Say what you will about the DC Dems, knock them for their lack of leadership, but one thing they know how to do is follow.
Dean provided that spark of leadership and people responded. The rest of the Dems, wailing about the imminent Dean-inspired apocalypse, noticed something else -- Howard was striking a chord. The money and the volunteers flowed. Perhaps this "opposition party" thing had a future!
Dean's message was stolen, and the did his downward-spiral thing. But the important thing for us is that Dean's message survived. Democrats suddenly found their voice. And people continued to respond -- this time with record turnouts in our primaries.
This article is much too optimistic about the DC party establishment. I have seen a much more pessimistic attitude in town. And who knows, maybe their internal polling justifies their pessimism. Perhaps they're just tired of seeing their optimistic expectations dashed. Perhaps they'd rather get a pleasant surprise for once. And nothing sets you up for a pleasant surprise than lowering expectations to the floor.
I wouldn't blame them.
But I see it differently. The national mood is in our favor. We've got a charged up base. People are willing to put their money into races nationwide like never before in the history of elections. The rules are changing. Politics is changing.
With the power of our growing netroots community, with fired-up rank-and-file unwired party supporters, and with the big dollar 527s, I can't imagine we won't take the White House, make serious gains in the House and, at the very least, hold our ground in the Senate. And barring unforseen events, we can take both houses of Congress back by 2006.
Dismiss me as a hopeless optimist. I'm guilty as charged. But we can do a lot of damage to the Republicans this cycle. I, for one, don't intend to mope about our sad lot in life. Bush's ineptness has given us the opportunity. It's up to us to exploit it.