I know I'm not the only one around here who follows the
Tradesports prices. For those who don't, it's a market where people trade real money in future events, and the way it is structured means that the 'price' for an outcome represents a percentage chance that it will occur (in the opinion of the market).
I was looking at the politics section, and found the following interesting:
Bush to Win - trading at 51.0
Bush to win popular vote - 45.4
Bush to win both Ohio & Florida - 44.7
GOP sweep (Bush+Senate+House) - 47
Seems to me that Bush to win is trading too high compared to the rest of these numbers...
I've made a nice percentage profit (sadly not a lot in absolute terms!) betting against Bush - I think there is more to be made :).
In the State by State betting, things look good too. New Hampshire is firmly in the bag for Kerry according to this market, and only one Gore state - Wisconsin - is trading betwen 40 and 50 (meaning it is considered at risk).
By contrast, the following states are tading below 60 (at risk for Bush):
Florida (53)
Missouri (57)
Ohio (58.3)
Nevada (52)
West Virginia (52)